Abuja Bureau Chief, LEON USIGBE, writes on the potentials of the emerging opposition coalition against the re-election of President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

Despite this administration being less than two years into office, the political landscape is already shifting toward the 2027 presidential election. Nigerian politicians have begun the familiar process of coalition-building and realignments, with a clear focus on unseating President Bola Tinubu. What makes this development particularly intriguing is the involvement of key political figures, some of whom were once close allies of the president.

While the Tinubu administration publicly maintains an air of confidence, it is undoubtedly monitoring what appears to be a coordinated effort to challenge his re-election bid. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has been one of the most vocal critics of Tinubu’s government. Even before the recent National Conference on Strengthening Democracy in Nigeria, where he intensified his attacks on the president, Atiku had repeatedly accused Tinubu of suppressing opposition voices and misusing state institutions for political gain.

Atiku claims that Tinubu is selectively targeting political opponents under the guise of fighting corruption while shielding his allies from scrutiny. He further alleges that the administration is attempting to bribe opposition leaders to destabilize their parties ahead of the 2027 elections. “Even to the most inattentive, it has become glaringly clear that Tinubu is not waging a war on corruption – he is waging a war on the opposition, manipulating the system for his own political advantage,” Atiku declared.

The presidency has dismissed Atiku’s accusations, framing them as the grievances of a sore loser rather than genuine concerns about governance. Presidential aides argue that Atiku’s criticisms are driven by envy and a personal vendetta rather than the interests of the Nigerian people. They also point to Atiku’s past role in government, particularly his controversial oversight of Nigeria’s privatization programme, to question his credibility on governance matters.

Expanding opposition and internal APC fractures

Atiku is not the only one expressing dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration. The recent National Conference on Strengthening Democracy in Nigeria showcased a broader coalition of discontent, including figures such as former governors Rotimi Amaechi and Nasir el-Rufai – both of whom were once staunch Tinubu allies. There are indications that these figures may align with Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, and other opposition leaders, though Obi himself has yet to demonstrate keen interest in such a coalition.

During the conference, Amaechi urged Nigerians to be prepared to use “brutal force” to reclaim power in 2027, expressing frustration over perceived government impunity and the electorate’s reluctance to hold leaders accountable. He criticized Nigerians for not protesting against economic hardships, arguing that citizens are unwilling to defend their votes or make sacrifices for democracy.

El-Rufai, on his part, openly ridiculed some of Tinubu’s supporters, labeling them as “clowns” and “political mercenaries” paid to defend the administration. His sharp remarks have fueled speculation about his standing within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), suggesting deepening divisions within the party. El-Rufai also asserted that even if he had been appointed as a minister under Tinubu’s government, he would not have refrained from criticizing the administration’s shortcomings.

Opposition challenges and Tinubu’s response

While the opposition recognizes that a united front is necessary to challenge Tinubu effectively, internal strife remains a major obstacle. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the main opposition party, continues to grapple with factionalism and defections to the APC, raising questions about its ability to present a strong challenge in 2027. Political analysts argue that unless the opposition can resolve its internal divisions, forming a cohesive coalition will be difficult.

The Tinubu administration is well aware of these challenges and has downplayed the significance of the opposition’s recent activities. A presidential spokesperson dismissed the gathering of opposition figures and dissenting voices within the APC as a politically motivated assembly of detractors. He emphasized that Tinubu remains “undistracted and unperturbed” despite the emerging political tensions.

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), another presidential aide, Dare, criticized the opposition for engaging in what he described as a “Machiavellian” plot against Tinubu. Referring to the president’s recent official trip to Tanzania, Dare remarked: “While President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was away in faraway Dar es Salaam, his political opponents, detractors, and pseudo-friends unfolded their Machiavellian inclinations. Expectedly, it was a gathering convened to further spread ill will. Nothing new came out of it beyond the opposition script we are used to.”

Dare further accused some opposition figures of going “overboard” in their criticism and of promoting undemocratic actions. Despite the early confrontations, he insisted that Tinubu remains focused on governance rather than political distractions. “The clouds are beginning to clear. The stage sets soon. The combat begins. Until then, President Tinubu, an avowed democrat, remains undistracted and unperturbed. The fight is ahead. Not now,” he stated.

In a direct challenge to those already preparing for the 2027 elections, Dare advised them to wait for the appropriate time to test their popularity at the polls. “This is 2025. Not 2027! Let those who want to test their popularity with Nigerians wait for the next election. President Tinubu is fully focused on providing the leadership that will transform our country,” he concluded.

Looking ahead

As Nigeria moves closer to 2027, political maneuvering will only intensify. While the opposition is actively exploring alliances, the challenge remains in forging a truly unified front. Meanwhile, the Tinubu administration continues to assert its focus on governance, downplaying the activities of its critics. Analysts believe that the coming months will reveal whether the opposition can overcome its internal struggles to mount a formidable challenge for power. (Nigerian Tribune)