Who attacked Chad’s Presidential Palace on Wednesday night, January 8, 2025?

There are several conflicting theories about who might have been responsible for the deadly attack that claimed 19 lives, with some blaming the armed group Boko Haram.

Boko Haram fighters have launched incursions into the country since 2013, operating from their base in the Lake Chad Basin, which Chad shares with Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon.

Although the group was originally founded in Nigeria, porous borders allowed it to expand operations. In 2015, Boko Haram suicide bombers targeted police buildings and markets in N’Djamena in a series of attacks. More than 50 people were killed, and more than 100 were injured.

Security sources told the AFP and Reuters news agencies that Wednesday’s attack was likely by the group.

“It wouldn’t be far-fetched for Boko Haram to try doing this, though this is a massive security lapse at the palace,” Beverly Ochieng, a Senegal-based security analyst at Control Risks, an intelligence firm, told Al Jazeera.

“They might want to retaliate against Operation Haskanite,” she added, referencing a security operation President Deby personally launched in October. The aim is to track and neutralise hundreds of Boko Haram fighters who attacked and killed more than 40 Chadian troops in the Lake Chad Basin area on October 28.

However, government officials have downplayed the Boko Haram theory. In an interview with Chad’s state broadcaster hours after the attack, spokesman Koulamallah said the attackers were “probably not” Boko Haram members or part of an organised armed group. He described them instead as drunken “Pieds Nickeles” – a reference to a French comic featuring hapless crooks.

But a random pair of crooks would find it difficult to attack the seat of power in N’Djamena. The city, on any day, is crawling with camouflage-wearing, gun-toting soldiers hanging from military trucks.

President Deby was in the presidential complex at the time of the attack. Hours before at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Deby had met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who was in the country for a state visit.

At least six people have been arrested in connection with the attack, although it’s unclear yet who they are. The minister said investigations are ongoing. (Adapted from a Al Jazeera report)