The leadership crisis within the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has reportedly deepened in the Lake Chad area, with the group’s Wali, Ba Shuwa, accused of ordering the execution of a senior Buduma Shura Council member and the arrest of several prominent Buduma commanders.

Credible intelligence told Zagazola that the latest development formed part of an intensifying internal purge within ISWAP, reportedly driven by growing suspicion among the group’s leadership that some Buduma commanders were considering defection to the JAS faction or surrender to Nigerian troops operating around the Lake Chad axis.

Among those reportedly arrested is Yaku Abu Adam, who was recently appointed Deputy Amir al-Jaysh.

Intelligence assessments indicate that Yaku’s recent elevation may have been used as a means of bringing him closer to the ISWAP leadership before his arrest.

Another senior commander, identified as Bashihuba, was also reportedly detained, with intelligence assessments indicating that both men could face execution in the coming days.

The latest purge reportedly followed the execution of Malam Haruna, a senior member of the Buduma Shura Council.

Third major purge in three months

The development is reportedly the third major purge involving senior Shura Council members within ISWAP in the past three months, highlighting growing distrust and internal fractures within the terrorist organisation.

Sources indicated that Ba Shuwa’s actions are largely driven by concerns that elements of the Buduma leadership may abandon ISWAP and either realign with the rival JAS faction or surrender to Nigerian security forces.

The situation has reportedly heightened tensions between the central ISWAP leadership and Buduma commanders operating around the Lake Chad islands and adjoining areas.

The growing divisions are also being assessed against the backdrop of intensified military and non-kinetic pressure on terrorist groups operating in the North-East.

The overall security assessments indicate that the leadership crisis could temporarily weaken ISWAP’s command and control structure around the Lake Chad area, particularly as senior commanders become preoccupied with internal security and loyalty concerns.

However, the instability also carries security risks, including the possibility of retaliatory attacks by affected factions seeking to demonstrate strength or settle internal disputes.

The reported crackdown is particularly significant because of the strategic role played by the Buduma community within ISWAP’s Lake Chad structure, where the group has maintained networks of fighters, commanders and logistical support.

Sources have also linked the growing distrust to psychological operations messaging directed at terrorist factions, particularly narratives highlighting alleged marginalisation and grievances among Buduma elements within ISWAP.

With the possibility of retaliatory violence during the period of heightened internal tension, security forces operating around the Lake Chad area have been advised to maintain heightened vigilance.

Sources recommended close monitoring of developments within the terrorist camps, particularly movements involving senior commanders and their loyalists.

The sources also called for strengthened intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance efforts around detention locations and areas where potential defectors could emerge. (Zagazola, but headline reworked)