General Editor, Politics, TAIWO ADISA, reviews the just-concluded off-season election in Osun State, which saw Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party re-elected ahead of the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Oyebamiji, posing the question: what next for the APC after the consecutive defeats?

In the build-up to the governorship primaries of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Osun State, the party decided to disqualify some of the aspirants. One of the aspirants denied the opportunity to vie for the party’s ticket was Senator Iyiola Omisore, a former deputy governor of the state, a former Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriation, who is also a power broker in the state. When the party’s national chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, met with a team of journalists in Lagos in the aftermath of that disqualification, a question was put to him about whether the decision would not hurt that party in the August 15, 2026, election.

The Plateau-born academic retorted that his party had done its homework well. Incidentally, Omisore, one of the disqualified aspirants, had played strategic roles in the party’s victory in 2018. Even before that election, he had been a key figure in the politics of Osun State and was the gubernatorial candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which battled then Governor Rauf Aregbesola to a standstill in the 2014 election. Besides being a popular face in the politics of Osun, Omisore has also been the face of Ile-Ife, which harbours four critical local governments that regularly contribute more than 100,000 valid votes on election day.

As the August 15 election date drew closer, the APC hierarchy, however, realised the mistake of keeping a candidate like Omisore and others out in the cold. An emergency reconciliatory move was ignited with the former governor of the state, Chief Bisi Akande, leading the way. The team met with Omisore, while former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola of the PDP was also back to support the APC. Though Omisore, Oyinlola, and a former Minister of Youth, Senator Akinlabi Olasunkanmi, announced their endorsement of Oyebamiji in the days preceding election, it appeared too little too late, as the people of Osun appeared to have made up their minds on which candidate deserved their votes in 2026.

Thus, but for the narrow victory the APC secured in 2018 over then candidate of the then PDP, Senator Ademola Adeleke, the crushing defeat of the APC by Osun’s incumbent governor in the August 15, 2026, election would have amounted to a hat-trick. In 2018, Gboyega Oyetola of the APC was declared winner of a disputed election, after the poll was initially declared inconclusive. Oyetola eventually emerged victorious with a vote haul of 255,505 against Ademola Adeleke’s 255,023 votes. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the election inconclusive, and after the rerun on September 27, 2018, APC’s Oyetola gained more votes to ensure he defeated Adeleke with a margin of 482 votes.

Though the APC smiled home with its victory in 2018, not a few Nigerians believed something was fishy, especially with the way Senator Iyiola Omisore was practically pinned to the wall to ensure he ditched Adeleke’s PDP to back the APC. In 2022, however, Adeleke paid the APC back with its own coin, as he secured a handsome victory that took him to the Government House. His victory with a little over 28,000 votes ensured the victory. In that second head-to-head contest between Adeleke and Oyetola in 2022, the incumbent Osun governor polled 403,371 votes to beat APC’s Oyetola, who won 375,037 votes. Though the APC contested the election up to the apex court in the land, it was unable to secure any reprieve, as Adeleke was given the all-clear to exercise the mandate of the people. In the 2026 exercise, Adeleke secured a wider margin, beating the APC with 511,067 votes to 444,815 votes. Though Oyetola was not on the ballot this time, his shadow loomed large behind APC’s candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, who was endorsed s candidate after the APC hierarchy asked the former governor (Oyetola) to back down in the contest. While Adeleke won in 2022 with barely 28,000 votes, in 2026, his voting strength had more than doubled, beating his closest challenger with more than 66,000.

Several factors have been adduced to the victory recorded by Adeleke on the platform of the Accord in the August 15 polls. Some have alluded to the resolve of the people, which was key; the character of the Adeleke family, which has remained true to the people of the state; and the service Governor Adeleke was able to deliver within his nearly four years in the saddle. One factor that stands out, however, is the manner in which the APC hierarchy managed its stakeholders and the geopolitical expectations going into the polls. One of the allegations that rocked the party ahead of the elections was the largely winner-takes-all attitude of the leaders. A document was circulated among political leaders in Osun which indicated that the Minister of Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola, had ensured that most of those appointed into positions in the state were the favoured members of his camp. In a list of 26 political appointees of the APC, including Oyetola, none was said to have been conceded to the camps of other bigwigs in the state. Though the APC had equally accused the Adeleke administration of appointing members of the family into the state cabinet, the number pales into insignificance when compared with the list of Oyetola’s beneficiaries. The list includes chairmen of federal parastatals, agencies, governing councils of universities and boards. Sources said that the alleged marginalisation was the reason many erstwhile loyalists of Oyetola also left the APC and either defected to the Accord or the ADC. Some of those who ditched Oyetola’s camp and thereafter the APC include the Commissioner for Education in his administration, former Chairman of the Osun State Universal Basic Education Board, who had also served as the pioneer Director General of the Oyetola Campaign Organisation, Dr. Ajibola Famurewa, another former special adviser, Alhaji Jamiu Olawumi, and another whose name was given as Alim Bakare.

“So many of our stakeholders say that the list of those who feel marginalised by Oyetola’s politics is endless,” a source said, adding that the bid to rally Omisore and many of the aggrieved leaders came so late in the day.

Besides, sources also stated that the APC, in picking its candidate from Osun West, only appeared to have satisfied a portion of the geopolitical agitation that would drive the candidacy of Governor Adeleke. It was learnt that while Osogbo remains the capital of Osun State, it has been unable to produce a governor since its creation. And that is even though the capital city is a major vote bank in all elections. Osogbo councils always turn out valid votes in excess of 50,000 on election day, a situation that places it as one of the deciders of the governorship seat in any election. Some leaders of Osogbo had started canvassing for an indigene to emerge as governor for some election circles, and they believe that supporting Osun West to complete a second term in office would ensure a possible realisation of the ambition. The same argument was being made in the case of Ife, which comprises four heavily populated local governments. Ife zone believes that it is ripe for the governorship seat after Ijesha zone had occupied the seat when it was the turn of Osun East through the two terms of Governor Rauf Aregbesola.

So, whatever entreaties the APC would make to Omisore in the last days of the campaign, observers believed that the people of Ile-Ife would prefer to support Adeleke such that the zoning arrangement can turn in their favour by 2030.

The overreliance on the fabled federal might (a euphemism for election manipulation) by APC politicians appears to have served as another undoing of the party. Whereas the electoral process instituted by INEC could guarantee that votes count, is properly followed, some campaigners of the APC had believed that the ordinary voter would be scared away from the polling units on election day. The threats from some APC chieftains were loud enough, and instead of turning the people away, they emboldened them to further defend their votes.

One factor that stands above all, however, appears to be the service delivery offered by Governor Adeleke. Several indigenes of the state were able to testify to his payment of salaries, gratuities, and pensions, as well as the infrastructure works that cut across the state.

What is next for Osun APC? Rather than continuously antagonising the Adelekes, the APC in Osun would have a lesson or two to learn from the unity of purpose of that family. The APC would also need to showcase service that can endear them to the people of the state. They would also need a lesson or two in the faithfulness of the Adeleke family to the people of Ede from the time of their patriarch, Senator Raji Ayoola Adeleke, to date. From the days of their late father, who was a senator in the Second Republic, the Adelekes have remained focused on developing their hometown even in their private capacities. (Nigerian Tribune)