Bar another dramatic turnaround, Real Madrid’s pursuit of Rodri appears to be over.

The Manchester City midfielder has informed Madrid that his preference, should he leave England this summer, is to join Barcelona. Until recently, Madrid had been considered the more realistic destination for Rodri, and the club had made a significant financial proposal to the player. But there had been doubts throughout the process over how convinced Rodri actually was about moving to the Bernabéu which partly stem from Real Madrid not pulling the trigger quick enough, taking too long to close out the deal thinking they had time (and also no competition from other clubs).

But their hesitancy has now cost them. Rodri has given Barcelona permission to formally approach Manchester City and explore the conditions of a transfer. No agreement between the clubs exists yet, but the situation has changed considerably: Barça can now move from maintaining an interest in the background to actually negotiating a deal — with Rodri seemingly convinced by phone calls from Hansi Flick as well as Spanish National Team teammates.

From Madrid’s perspective, there appears to be little appetite convincing Rodri to changes his mind.

The club’s position has traditionally been fairly straightforward in situations like this: if a player needs significant convincing to join Real Madrid, particularly when another club is his preferred destination, Madrid are generally comfortable moving on. Rodri was highly rated internally by some members of Real Madrid’s board for obvious reasons — his quality in possession, tactical intelligence, leadership and experience would have filled an important role in José Mourinho’s midfield — but there was never complete confidence at Valdebebas that Madrid was where he genuinely wanted to be.

Or at least that’s the story the club will want to push out now. Some sources state that Florentino Perez wasn’t truly convinced of Rodri because of his injury history and age, otherwise he would’ve wrapped up the deal weeks

nMadrid had held two conversations with Manchester City regarding Rodri, although neither progressed past the negotiation stage.

Why Rodri preferred Barcelona

AS reported that Rodri explained his reasoning to Madrid during recent conversations, and most of it appears to have been football-related.

Barcelona’s style was one factor. Rodri has spent the majority of his prime playing under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, where his responsibilities as the deepest midfielder go considerably beyond conventional defensive-midfield work. He dictates possession, controls the tempo of games, positions himself as an outlet during buildup and has spent years operating in a system built around positional superiority.

There are obvious differences between Guardiola’s City and Hansi Flick’s Barcelona, but the basic principles in possession are familiar enough that Rodri can see a natural fit.

There is also a personal element. Rodri has developed relationships with several Barcelona players through the Spanish national team and reportedly feels a greater affinity with that group. Guardiola’s connection to Barcelona and the footballing education Rodri has received at City also contributed to his preference.

None of those reasons are particularly difficult to understand.

In fact, stylistically, Barcelona may be the cleaner fit.

Madrid could absolutely use Rodri, but Mourinho would not necessarily ask him to play the same way he has under Guardiola. Madrid’s midfield is also going through its own evolution and, after an extremely active summer in the transfer market, there are several ways Mourinho can configure it without adding another player on enormous wages.

Madrid liked Rodri, but they didn’t like him enough to persuade him to choose them over the club he actually wanted.

Barcelona had been waiting

Barcelona’s interest did not suddenly emerge this week.

They had been monitoring Rodri’s situation for several weeks while keeping their distance because Madrid appeared to have the advantage. Barcelona’s primary transfer target remains Julián Álvarez, but the possibility of signing Rodri was considered significant enough for the club to maintain contact with his camp and stay informed about developments.

Their strategy was essentially to wait.

If Rodri reached an agreement with Madrid, there wasn’t much Barcelona could realistically do. If those talks stalled and the midfielder became available, they wanted to be positioned to move quickly.

That is where things stand now.

Barcelona had previously stopped short of submitting an offer either to Rodri or Manchester City. With the player now giving them permission to proceed, they can begin discussions with City Football Group CEO Ferran Soriano over what a transfer would require.

Reports in Spain have put the potential fee at approximately €60 million, with Barcelona prepared to offer Rodri a four-year contract worth around €30 million gross annually.

That would obviously be a major financial commitment for a 30-year-old midfielder, but Rodri’s contractual situation gives Barcelona some leverage.

He has one year remaining on his Manchester City deal and has so far declined the club’s attempts to extend it. City therefore have a fairly simple decision to make: reach another renewal agreement, sell him this summer, or risk losing one of the best midfielders in the world for nothing in 2027.

The reported €60 million price has to be viewed through that context.

For a player of Rodri’s level, it would ordinarily look low. For a 30-year-old entering the final year of his contract and apparently prepared to leave, the market is different.

Manchester City appear to be preparing for life without him

Another significant part of the situation is what City are doing themselves.

The English club have reportedly reached a verbal agreement with Ayyoub Bouaddi, the highly rated young midfielder who has been identified as a possible successor to Rodri. Bouaddi is valued at around €60 million.

That doesn’t guarantee Rodri will leave, but City identifying and advancing on a replacement is an obvious indication that they are preparing for the possibility.

Rodri has little left to accomplish in England. He has won the Premier League repeatedly, the Champions League and virtually every other major trophy available at club level. He also enters this decision with his status in Spanish football higher than ever after being named the best player at the most recent World Cup.

The question is no longer whether he has established himself at City.

It is whether he wants to spend the final elite years of his career somewhere else.

Everything at the moment points toward yes.

And if that somewhere is Barcelona, City’s leverage becomes increasingly limited. A player with one year remaining on his contract can exert considerable influence over his destination simply by refusing alternatives.

What Madrid are losing

There is no point pretending Rodri wouldn’t have been an excellent signing for Real Madrid.

He would have solved several problems immediately.

Madrid have spent years trying to replace different components of the Casemiro-Kroos-Modrić midfield rather than finding direct replacements for those players, which is probably the correct approach because those profiles are almost impossible to replicate individually.

Rodri would have given Mourinho something different.

He is one of the best midfielders in the world at receiving under pressure, organizing possession and controlling where a game is played. He provides defensive positioning without sacrificing technical quality and can dictate games without needing to constantly advance into the final third.

That kind of player becomes particularly useful in Champions League knockout games, where controlling five or 10 chaotic minutes can be as valuable as creating another scoring opportunity.

His leadership also mattered to Madrid. Rodri is an established figure for Spain and has the personality to walk into an elite dressing room without needing time to establish credibility.

There is a reason Madrid explored the signing.

But there is also a difference between recognizing that Rodri improves the team and deciding that Madrid should do everything possible to sign a 30-year-old midfielder to a four-year contract worth around €30 million gross per season.

Once the player himself preferred Barcelona, the decision became easier.

Mourinho will have to solve the position internally

Mourinho has been kept informed throughout the process and reportedly believes Madrid already have solutions in the squad.

If Mourinho genuinely feels that way, his theory will now be tested.

Madrid have plenty of midfield talent, although nobody currently provides exactly the same combination of control, positioning and distribution that Rodri would have brought. Aurélien Tchouaméni is the most obvious defensive-midfield option, while Federico Valverde and Eduardo Camavinga can provide different qualities depending on the structure around them — but Camavinga has been poor for quite some time, and there are big questions on how Valverde and Tchouameni can fit together. Real Madrid will have to rely on Arda Güler and Bernardo Silve to help control games.

The important distinction is that Madrid don’t necessarily need to find a player who plays like Rodri. They need to solve the problems Rodri would have solved. Those are different things.

Tchouaméni can provide more physical coverage. Valverde can compensate with running and ball progression. Camavinga gives Madrid press resistance and carrying, Güler and Silva can help control play. Mourinho can also alter the structure around whichever player operates deepest, rather than asking one midfielder to reproduce everything Rodri does for City. (Managing Madrid)