Telecommunications operators in Nigeria has dismissed notions that the recent attempt by the Nigerian Communications Commission, NCC, to commission a cost-based study to determine fresh mobile termination rates, will lead to increase in telecom tariffs in the country.

The telcos said such assumptions would only wrongly preempt the outcome of the market study and throw the industry into baseless panic mode, when in several instances price could even drop, depending on the outcome of the study.

Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria, ALTON, umbrella body of telcos, Engr Gbenga Adebayo, who spoke to Vanguard exclusively said: “There is no need to throw the sector into panic mode over NCC’s usual engagement with stakeholders to determine a way forward for an aspect of telecom activities.

"That is exactly what NCC did with the gathering of stakeholders to discuss modalities for reviewing eight years old mobile termination rate. Why are people immediately jumping to conclusions that reviewing MTR will inflate tariffs?

"All we should be concerned about is that everybody in the sector presents genuine components of cost which will help to determine termination rates. Any other thing will be pre-empting a noble industry practice”

The NCC, on Tuesday, appeared to have succumbed to the consistent pushing of the telcos for a fundamental overhaul of the country’s wholesale pricing framework after mobile termination rates remained at a permanent fixture for eight years.

The telcos said despite inflation, currency depreciation and rising network costs, leaving rates at a place would neither help them, the subscribers nor balance the economics of the industry.

In its usual fashion, the commission on Tuesday, organised what it called stakeholders consultation forum in Lagos, where it formally launched a comprehensive review of Mobile Termination Rates, MTR, a wholesale or per-minutes fee one telecom operator pays to another for routing calls not self generated to its subscribers.

The current MTR of N3.90 per minute for established operators and B4.70 for newer entrants has remained in place since 2018, surviving one of the most turbulent economic periods in Nigeria’s recent history.

During that period, the naira lost significant value, inflation accelerated, energy costs surged, and operators spent trillions of naira expanding and modernising their networks.

According to the NCC, consulting firm, KPMG, will be supporting the study.

The review extends beyond voice termination rates and could result in broader changes across the telecommunications landscape as it will examine international termination rates, USSD pricing, Application-to-Person (A2P) messaging services, retail voice price controls and wholesale frameworks for MVNOs.

It will also assess whether existing interconnection arrangements remain suitable for a market increasingly driven by digital services rather than traditional voice revenues.

KPMG noted that the rise of 5G, artificial intelligence applications, IoT services and digital financial platforms has fundamentally altered network economics at the same time internet-based messaging and calling services are eroding traditional voice revenues that historically supported interconnection models.

Supporting the review, Adebayo said: “The sector should now transition from periodic tariff interventions towards a more predictable, transparent and cost-oriented pricing regime”.

He noted that the review comes at a critical time for an industry that has become one of Nigeria’s most important economic sectors. According to industry figures presented at the forum, telecommunications investment has grown from about $500 million when the sector was liberalised in 2001 to more than $75.6 billion today.

As of March 2026, Nigeria had 185.7 million mobile subscribers, 153.15 million internet users and data consumption exceeding 1.42 million terabytes. The sector contributed 8.12 percent to the country’s gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Despite this growth, operators say their cost structures have changed dramatically since the last MTR review. Telecom companies continue to grapple with interest rates above 33 perc cent, foreign exchange volatility, inflation, rising diesel costs, expensive imported equipment, fibre cuts caused by road construction, vandalism and multiple taxation across different states.

The industry invested approximately N2.13 trillion in capital expenditure in 2025 and plans another N1.86 trillion in spending this year.

According to operators, those investments are being directed towards 5G expansion, rural connectivity, cybersecurity upgrades, energy infrastructure and network resilience.

For the commission, the review becomes necessary because the communications market has changed significantly since the last determination in 2018.

It acknowledged that the communications market of 2026 had no resemblance to the factors that informed the 2018 determination.

However, it expressed worries over how to achieve a balancing between operator sustainability and consumer protection, adding that any future determination would be evidence-based and designed to ensure fair competition, support investment and protect consumers from excessive pricing.

The commission’s Assistant Director, Policy Competition and Economic Analysis, Nkechi Araka, confessed that the review was necessary because significant technological and economic changes had altered the underlying cost of service delivery.

The regulator cited the rollout of 5G networks, the growing influence of internet-based communication platforms such as WhatsApp and other over-the-top services, the emergence of Mobile Virtual Network Operators, MVNOs, and increasing consumer demand for high-quality connectivity as factors reshaping the industry.

The NCC said the review would assess whether existing rates still reflected the true cost of providing termination services and whether the current asymmetric pricing structure, which allows smaller operators to charge higher termination rates, remained appropriate.

However, the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria, ATCON, urged the commission to retain the asymmetric regime for smaller operators with less than 10 per cent market share, arguing that such protections remained necessary to sustain competition and encourage market participation.

President of the association, Tony Izuagbe Emoekpere, who was represented by the Chief Marketing Officer at BroadBased, Chidi Ibisi, also warned that escalating operational costs were placing increasing pressure on operators’ ability to maintain investment levels needed to support Nigeria’s digital economy ambitions. (Vanguard)