Details emerged at the weekend as to how the African Democratic Congress (ADC) landed in what some political observers called the “hot waters of Nigerian politics”, following the decision of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to withdraw the earlier recognition given to the Senator David Mark-led executive committee.

Nigerian Tribune was reliably informed by some sources in the polity that, while the strategists of the ruling party left the party alone for some time, especially when it looked like the coalition might not get it right, emerging signals in recent weeks which indicated some seriousness in the build-up toward the 2027 election hastened the resolve to cripple the coalition.

The sources stated that two scenarios have been highlighted by strategists of the ruling party as capable of creating a serious challenge to the re-election bid of President Bola Tinubu and that it was resolved that any party that treads along those lines would have issues.

The ADC, it was said, has been tottering on the fringes of the two dangerous scenarios, thus creating an “urgency on the need to deal with the problem”, a source said.

The first scenario, according to investigations, is for any party to lure former President Goodluck Jonathan into the 2027 race on its ticket, while the second highlighted scenario is to allow a strong candidate to emerge in the Southern party of the country.

Sources said that even though the ADC has not announced a zoning formula, resolving to leave the matter for a later date, there have been signals that its chieftains have been lobbying Jonathan to come out of his shell and pick up the presidential battle.

A source said that the fear of Jonathan was responsible for the decapitation of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a platform some sources said remains Jonathan’s preferred choice if he were to join the 2027 race.

“When some governors of the PDP mooted the idea that Jonathan should be prevailed upon to run in 2027, the APC hierarchy became jittery, and the death knell of the former ruling party had to be orchestrated. That was why a massive defection of its lawmakers in the National Assembly took place, and key governors also had to be lured into the ruling party,” a source stated.

The source added that with the governors of Bayelsa, Akwa-Ibom, Rivers, and Delta in the APC fold, there was the certainty that Jonathan’s South-South base had been weakened.

Last week, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, stated during his monthly media chat that he wasn’t sure the PDP was in a position to mount a serious challenge for the 2027 presidency, adding that the party had set up a small committee to review the situation to avoid ‘participating for participation sake’.

With the PDP out of the way, attention shifted to the coalition DC, where APC strategists had concluded long ago that the presidential ticket had been reserved for the former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.

The postulation had been that Atiku would always win the ADC ticket, thus presenting what is believed to be an easy election for Tinubu in 2027.

If Atiku is on the ballot, the strategists believed that the situation would provoke a North versus South debate and that southern solidarity would play in favour of the incumbent president.

But sources said that the thinking started changing recently when reports indicated on social media that Atiku would drop out of the 2027 race. Even though the former number two man denied the report, it was gathered that the development raised the alarm within the strategists of the ruling party, who suddenly believed that their calculation was being altered.

The defection of the former governor of Kano State, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, to the ADC was seen as the immediate trigger to orchestrate the firing of the short at the coalition party, a source stated.

It was gathered that the convergence of three of the four leading presidential candidates in the 2023 election in the ADC does not paint a good picture for the re-election bid of the incumbent president.

It was also learnt that it was becoming plausible that a Peter Obi/Kwankwaso ticket was becoming more likely, with the duo possessing some of the loudest and most organic campaigners in recent years.

While Obidients are mostly on the different platforms of social media, the Kwankwasiyya Movement is a grassroots group that has its members across the country, though they are strongest in Kano State.

A key member of the APC, therefore, stated that Asiwaju would not fold his hands and allow a massive coalition to bring the Obidients and Kwankwasiyya Movements together to battle him and that some strategists had to go to work to weaken the ADC.

“I think the ADC played into their hands by allowing the suit to fester, a source stated, adding that the man, Nafiu Bala Gombe, actually hesitated before launching his legal battle.

“It’s possible he waited for some conditions to be fulfilled. I think the failure of the party to fulfil whatever the condition was, enabled him to orchestrate the unfolding plot,” another source said, adding that the leadership of the ADC also needed to be wary of a case by Dumebi Kachikwu, the party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election.

Kachikwu has been laying claim to the leadership of the party, declaring that he was not consulted before the Ralph Nwosu executive brought in the coalition partners.

Meanwhile, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the 2023 presidential elections, Dumebi Kachikwu, has expressed hope that the party would be able to come together and figure a way out of the current mess in the next few weeks.

Addressing journalists in Abuja, he said with the current situation, the actions of politicians have rendered any political aspiration through the party a nonstarter.

Kachikwu also said his plan to run again on the platform of the party in 2027 had been hindered by the current situation, warning that this development might pave the way for smooth running of Tinubu.

The former presidential candidate, who said he did not recognise Nafiu Bala faction, recalled that he had long warned that anyone who attempted to come into the party through the back door would be shown the way out through the windows.

He said, “This group of mostly ex-political office holders who have held sway over the affairs of Nigeria for the last 40 years or more had attempted to register the ADA and then jumped to the SDP before they gate-crashed the ADC in the middle of the night. How do you explain this? Jumping from political party to political party, no ideology, no belief system, standing for nothing and believing only in the notion that power is their birthright.

“What we are seeing today is just the beginning….So, all those of you who joined these geriatrics because you seek to contest for positions in the 2027 general elections, I regret to inform you that the actions of these men have rendered any political aspiration through the ADC a nonstarter.”

He added, “There are many who would say that this means that we are now a one-party state and my immediate response is that we have the PDP, Labour Party, NNPP, AA, AAC, SDP, ADP, APGA, Accord and many other parties out there. So, why the ADC? Why the African Democratic Congress?

“I will now answer the myriad questions that I have been getting with this statement: I have now accepted that these old men are truly masters of the political game. For them to come into the ADC knowing that there is no pathway here for them, means that there is a conspiracy between these men and the APC to make a fool of us all. This is the only plausible explanation. My consolation in all these is that you can fool man, but you can’t fool God. God win.”

He said, “They came to the ADC where they believe that I have no political godfather. So, it’s easy for them to push me out of the party.” (Nigerian Tribune)