•Nextier unveils predictive security platform, warns insecurity may worsen ahead of 2027 elections

Violent conflicts across Nigeria claimed 4,654 lives in 2025, while 3,141 persons were kidnapped in 1,274 incidents nationwide, according to the Nigeria Violent Conflicts Database (NVCD) 2025 released by Nextier Advisory Ltd., which warned that insecurity may worsen without urgent reforms in intelligence, governance, and conflict prevention.

The findings were unveiled in Abuja during the launch of the 2026 Nigeria Security and Conflict Outlook, themed “When Capability Meets Resolve,” alongside a new predictive security platform designed to strengthen data-driven conflict response and early warning systems.

Presenting the report, Nextier’s Managing Partner and Chief Executive Officer, Dr Ndubuisi Nwokolo, described banditry as the deadliest driver of violence in 2025, accounting for 599 incidents and 2,724 deaths, a sharp increase from 256 incidents and 1,585 fatalities recorded in 2024.

According to the report, the North-West recorded the highest number of banditry attacks, while the North-Central zone witnessed more fatalities, indicating increasing brutality. Terrorism and insurgency also persisted, with 43 terror-related incidents, while Borno State remained the epicentre, recording 397 casualties.

Kidnapping reached alarming levels, with mass abductions particularly affecting rural communities. Farmer–herder conflicts also intensified, rising from 58 incidents and 188 deaths in 2024 to 87 incidents and 322 fatalities in 2025, driven by climate stress, ethnic tensions, political dynamics, and competition over resources.

The report identified illicit mining as a growing funding stream for armed groups, alleging that a notorious bandit leader earns up to ₦300 million weekly from illegal gold sales. It also cited the proliferation of small arms, porous borders, Sahel instability, economic hardship, and youth unemployment as key enablers of violence.

Nextier warned that insecurity may escalate in 2026 due to emerging alliances between terrorists and bandits, the expansion of armed groups into new states such as Kwara and Kano, and rising political tensions ahead of the 2027 general elections. Election-related violence, cult clashes, communal disputes, and gunmen attacks are expected to remain regionally concentrated but increasingly lethal.

The organisation identified at least 14 major threat clusters, including terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, secessionist unrest, communal violence, and illegal mining activities, stressing that Nigeria’s security challenges are interconnected and worsened by weak intelligence coordination and governance gaps.

To address the threats, Nextier urged the Federal Government to strengthen intelligence management, community policing, and international collaboration. It also called for intensified financial surveillance by agencies such as the Department of State Services (DSS) and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to dismantle ransom networks, alongside the full implementation of livestock reforms and the establishment of early warning mechanisms to mitigate farmer–herder conflicts.

The report further criticised Nigeria’s largely reactive electoral security strategy, advocating preventive conflict mechanisms, post-election reconciliation processes, and stronger internal accountability within security agencies, including prosecution of rights violations.

Delivering a keynote address on behalf of the Deputy Inspector-General of Police in charge of Research and Planning, DIG Basil Idegwu, CP Edwin Ogbeghagha said the report offers critical insights into Nigeria’s evolving security realities and underscores the need for data-driven policing.

“Capability without strategy is insufficient, and strategy without resolve cannot endure,” he said, noting that the Nigeria Police Force is expanding community policing initiatives, intelligence gathering, and inter-agency collaboration to enhance public safety.

Representatives of other stakeholders emphasised the need for a whole-of-society approach to security. ACC Helen Olubusi Idoko, representing the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), stressed the need for coordinated action among law enforcement agencies and civil society. At the same time, Zissimos Vergos, Head of Cooperation at the European Union Delegation to Nigeria and ECOWAS, highlighted the importance of partnerships and community engagement in preventing violence.

Nina Larsen of the UK SPRiNG Programme expressed concern over rising kidnappings and mass abductions. At the same time, Prof. Ukoha Nkiwo, Team Lead for SPRiNG, underscored the importance of credible conflict data in shaping public policy and national security planning.

As part of the launch, Nextier unveiled the Nigeria Violence Complete Database, a predictive platform that integrates field reports, verified datasets, and trend analysis to provide real-time intelligence and risk forecasts. Demonstrating the system, Senior Data Analyst Samuel Oluwajobi said the platform would enhance coordination among security agencies, civil society, and development partners.

Speakers at the event agreed that bridging the gap between state capacity and citizens’ lived experiences of security remains central to restoring public trust and achieving sustainable peace across Nigeria.

•PHOTO: Acting Director of the Early Warning Directorate ECOWAS Commission, Dr. Onyinye Onwuka; Representative of Chief of the Air Staff, Air Commodore Ademola Adejimi; Team Lead Spring, Dr. Ukola Ukiwe; representative of Deputy Inspector General of Police, Research and Planning, Edwin Ogbeghahrg; Managing Partner Nextier, Ndubuisi Nwokolo; during the unveiling of the Nigeria Security and Conflict Outlook 2026 in Abuja.