New data indicates a significant drop in demand from Europeans traveling to the U.S. this summer—but U.S. tourism officials insist the World Cup will deliver the $30.5 billion economic lift FIFA has projected.

Airline bookings from Europe to the U.S. for July 2026 are down 14.22% year-over-year, according to data from Cirium, a leading provider of aviation analytics, for transactions made primarily through third-party, online travel agencies from early October 2025 to the end of January 2026.

The steepest declines were from Frankfurt, Germany (down 36%), Barcelona (down 26%), Amsterdam (23%), Paris (down 21%), and Athens and Munich (both down 19%), and follow a trend of declining international inbound travel to the U.S. that reached an eighth straight month in December.

Zeroing in specifically on travel demand for U.S. World Cup host cities in June 2026—when the tournament begins—airline bookings are down 5% from Europe compared to last year, down 3.6% from Asia and essentially flat (up 0.2%) from South America, according to Cirium data for ticket purchases from early December 2025 to the end of January 2026.The World Cup is projected to drive $30.5 billion in economic output and create 185,000 jobs in the U.S. this year, according to an analysis from FIFA.

FIFA advised World Cup host cities to expect a 50/50 split between domestic and international visitors, tourism officials from three World Cup host cities told Forbes.

The fatal shootings of two American protesters by federal immigration officers and large-scale protests in Minneapolis have caused a handful of European governments to issue travel advisories warning their citizens to be careful when visiting the Twin Cities.

Why Are Fewer Europeans Booking Trips To The U.S.?

“Myriad” factors could be contributing to soft demand from European travelers, from consumer sentiment in Europe to “geo-political tensions that presented themselves in the early part of the year,” Mike Arnot, spokesperson for Cirium, told Forbes via email. “It is difficult to ascertain with specificity what may be depressing demand. It could be anyone of these factors, and a combination of all of them.” There have been rumblings but no organized effort to boycott the World Cup this summer following President Donald Trump’s push to acquire Greenland. One reason for European reticence that can be ruled out: an unfavorable exchange rate. The weakened U.S. dollar is down 12% versus the euro compared to a year ago, making a trip to America more affordable than in 2025.

“The truth of the matter is that registrations for [World Cup] tickets far exceed the tickets that are available, so even if there were some impact where people don’t want to come to the United States, it’s likely that somebody else would be willing to step in and take their ticket and take the trip instead,” Erik Hansen, senior vice president of government relations at the U.S. Travel Association (USTA), told Forbes, characterizing some of the media coverage as “alarmist and inaccurate.” On the other hand, Hansen said tourism officials are asking the Trump administration to hold off on two policies that were announced but not yet implemented—the $250 visa integrity fee and call for enhanced social media screening for travelers from Visa Waiver Program countries, which tourism officials have warned will dampen visitation to the United States. In addition, the USTA has lobbied Congress to restore funding for Brand USA, the marketing arm of the U.S. tourism industry, which was cut by 80% in the fiscal year 2026 budget.

Which European Countries Have Warned Their Citizens About Traveling To Minneapolis?

Since mid-January, four European governments have updated travel advisories for the United States. Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs issued an alert advising citizens to “exercise caution in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, where tensions are high following recent ICE activities.” Germany’s Foreign Office notes “a steady decline, particularly in serious violent crime, in major American cities,” while warning that “in Minneapolis and other cities, demonstrations sometimes lead to violent clashes with immigration and security authorities” and urging citizens to “be vigilant and stay away from crowds where violence might occur.” France and Finland issued warnings the same day Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse, was killed by federal officers.

Key Background

International visitors spent $254 billion on U.S. travel and tourism-related goods and services in 2024, according to the International Trade Administration. But a study released last May from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) that analyzed the economic impact of tourism in 184 countries revealed the U.S. was the only country forecast to see international visitor spending decline in 2025. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign,” Julia Simpson, president and CEO of WTTC, said in a statement at the time. (Text, excluding headline: Forbes)