By VIVIAN AHANMISI

CAF’s decision to discount results versus sixth-placed sides reshaped the runners-up table across Africa.

Eritrea withdrew before playing a match, leaving Group E reduced to five teams and triggering the adjustment.

Under CAF’s procedure, points and goals gained against the bottom team in full groups were removed for parity.

That change proved decisive for several nations chasing the best runners-up slots across the nine groups.

Burkina Faso’s dominant wins over Djibouti — twice — were effectively wiped from their runners-up tally.

Those victories had delivered nine points and a healthy nine-goal swing, boosting Burkina Faso dangerously close to qualification.

Once Djibouti results were discounted, Burkina Faso’s 21 points shrank to 15, and goal difference fell steeply.

Nigeria, by contrast, benefitted from the reassessment and moved ahead on the revised goal-difference metrics.

Frank Onyeka’s late strike proved decisive in that context, elevating Nigeria above their closest rivals on goal difference.

Onyeka’s stoppage-time finish transformed what might have been a near-miss into a lifeline for the Super Eagles.

The fine margins underline how administrative rulings and single moments on the pitch can combine to reorder qualification outcomes.

Nigeria’s campaign contained uneven patches but enough attacking potency and defensive resilience to remain in contention.

The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that Victor Osimhen led the line with regular goals, while midfield balance often came from industrious, disciplined performers.

Defensive lapses occasionally cost the team momentum, yet discipline and organisation improved as fixtures progressed.

Tactical coherence remains the coaching staff’s priority ahead of the November mini-tournament in Morocco.

Coach Eric Chelle’s brief tenure has focused on stabilising selection and testing tactical variants in competitive fixtures.

That defensive stability must be married to clinical finishing if Nigeria are to emerge from a short knockout event.

The CAF play-offs in Morocco will pair the four best runners-up in semi-finals, then a final, delivering one continental winner.

The mini-tournament format compresses risk: one bad day eliminates a favoured side, while momentum can propel an underdog.

NAN also reports that Nigeria will face Gabon in a semi-final, with Cameroon drawn against DR Congo.

Seeding followed the latest FIFA rankings, matching highest with lowest to set the semi-final brackets.

Cameroon bring experience and structured defending, often making them difficult opponents in short formats.

DR Congo combine athleticism with attacking unpredictability — a team capable of quick counters and sudden breaks.

Gabon rely on technical midfield play and quick wingers; coherence under pressure will define their prospects.

Nigeria’s pathway requires match control, early goal threats, and minimised set-piece vulnerability to avoid tight finishes.

Chelle must select a squad blending senior leadership with in-form club performers across Europe and Africa.

Leaders on the pitch will be crucial in November, guiding young players through tense knockout conditions.

Training camps should emphasise pattern play, finishing in crowded areas, and defending transitional moments.

Psychological preparation will be as important as physical fitness, given the tournament’s one-loss elimination risk.

The winner earns a place in March’s intercontinental play-offs, facing a non-African opponent for a World Cup berth.

That two-stage route — continental then intercontinental — makes November’s matches a crucial gateway to the 2026 finals.

For Nigeria’s supporters, hope is tempered by realism: one match can undo months of work, yet opportunity remains.

The qualification saga highlights structural fairness issues in qualifying formats after unforeseen withdrawals like Eritrea’s.

CAF’s decision aimed to equalise opportunity across groups of differing sizes; critics argue transparency could have been better.

Whatever the debate, the recalculation produced a clear practical consequence: Nigeria were elevated into the play-off places.

On the field, Onyeka’s goal will be recalled as the small, decisive act that changed Nigeria’s destiny.

In preparation, Chelle should map opponents’ weak points and ensure the Super Eagles can adapt mid-match.

Tactical flexibility — switching formations and pressing triggers — could unbalance Gabon’s rhythm or DR Congo’s countering.

Selection headaches will include balancing match fitness against club commitments and avoiding fatigue in an intense window.

The NFF’s logistical role is key: travel planning, rest, and medical provision can be competitive advantages in Morocco.

A disrupted camp or administrative errors would magnify the inherent tournament volatility and risk early elimination.

Fans demand accountability and consistency, urging the federation to back the coach with clear planning and resources.

If Nigeria succeed in Morocco, they advance to a dramatic intercontinental showdown in March — against a tougher, unfamiliar opponent.

That final hurdle will test squad depth, preparation quality, and the national team’s capacity to perform on foreign soil.

A successful run would restore belief after recent disappointments and keep Nigeria’s proud World Cup tradition alive.

Failure would be painful, but the narrow route to the play-offs demonstrates the unpredictable nature of modern qualifying.

For now, the Super Eagles have a reprieve and a focused task: win in Morocco, then tackle the intercontinental challenge.

Small moments dictated their fate; now sustained excellence must follow to turn reprieve into qualification.

If Chelle achieves tactical clarity and the players deliver mentally and physically, Nigeria can still reach the 2026 finals.

Onyeka’s late strike may be remembered as a season-saving moment, but qualification will demand much more in November.

The task ahead is straightforward in description yet fiendishly difficult in execution: perform in three matches, against elite African rivals.

Nigeria’s footballing character — resilience, creativity, and pace — gives them an authentic chance to prevail.

Win in Morocco, then win again in March, and the Super Eagles will have earned their place in the expanded 2026 World Cup. (NAN)