With the 2027 general election on the horizon, opposition forces are intensifying efforts to unseat President Bola Tinubu.

Opposition heavyweights, among them former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former governors Peter Obi, Nasir el-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi, have rallied under the banner of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a party they hope to transform into a stronger opposition platform to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

However, if the recently concluded by-elections in 12 states offered a glimpse into the ADC’s readiness, the outcome was anything but discouraging. The elections showed that the coalition adopted party, ADC, is struggling to gain traction and yet to gain prominence in many grassroots in the country.

The APC secured a majority of the seats in the August 16 by-elections conducted across 16 federal and state constituencies.

The elections, held to replace lawmakers who died or resigned after the 2023 general elections, were marred by reports of vote buying, violence and irregularities.

The results also reflect a trend of ruling parties consolidating power in their states, except in Adamawa and Taraba, where the APC upset the PDP in Ganye and Karim constituencies, respectively.

However, the polls presented a real-time test of Nigeria’s political landscape, a chance to weigh public dissatisfaction against Tinubu’s government, assess the strength of the opposition coalition, and measure the ADC’s viability as a platform.

Despite widespread discontent over rising inflation, fuel costs, and a depreciating naira, the APC reaffirmed its position as Nigeria’s dominant electoral machine. In constituency after constituency, APC candidates swept seats with commanding margins, reinforcing the party’s grassroots reach and organizational power.

PDP’s quiet endurance

While the ruling party celebrated, Nigeria’s main opposition, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), long battered by defections and leadership tussles, quietly demonstrated that it remains the main opposition force. The PDP secured enough wins to remind Nigerians that, despite its crises, it still commands loyalty across regions.

ADC’s poor showing

For the ADC, the by-elections were supposed to be a demonstration ground, an opportunity to showcase its new political heft after the entrance of big-name politicians. Instead, it was a reality check.

In Adamawa, Atiku’s home state, ADC candidates barely registered a presence. In Anambra, Peter Obi’s stronghold, his late endorsement of ADC contenders fell flat, as the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) retained its dominance. The coalition’s promise of fresh energy fizzled at the ballot box.

What was meant to be the debut of a formidable alternative looked more like a political experiment yet to find its footing.

Pundits say the disappointing results point to a deeper problem. They say the coalition may have been built more on shared frustrations against the APC than on shared structures.

For all their prominence, Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, and Amaechi have yet to translate their combined star power into grassroots machinery.

“The ADC may have the faces, but not the feet,” one analyst said, reflecting the view that a national campaign cannot be sustained by elite endorsements alone.

There are analysts who disagreed, noting that it is too early to use the by-election to judge the acceptance of the party among Nigerians.

“I do not think ADC’s performance in the last by-election is a good premise to draw a conclusion on the standing of the party ahead of the 2027 general election”, Temitope Musowo, public policy expert and lecturer, stated.

“Don’t forget the PDP has structures in places in some of the states where the by-election took place, unlike the ADC which still remains inchoate and fledgling in those states,” he noted.

2027: PDP or bust?

Political watchers say the by-elections underscore one truth: the opposition cannot afford to be fragmented in 2027. For many, the ADC’s poor outing shows that the coalition’s ambitions are unlikely to succeed without the PDP’s entrenched structures.

If Atiku and Obi continue to hedge between platforms, they risk weakening their bargaining power, leaving Tinubu’s APC with a smoother path to re-election.

For now, the ADC coalition faces a sobering reality. It has momentum in elite circles but little traction at the grassroots. Without bridging that gap, or striking an alliance with the PDP, its dream of dislodging the APC in 2027 may remain a dream.

The by-elections were not just about seats; they were a preview of the battle ahead. And if the results are anything to go by, Tinubu’s challengers still have a long way to go.

Analysts react

James Kwen, a political analyst said, “The outcome of the by-elections showed that the coalition is not on ground. It needs to do more in the next two years that a general election will be held if the party is truly committed to wresting power from the ruling APC.”

Similarly, Shola Okunwa, a lawyer, stated that politics is played at the grassroots, noting that ADC must try and take the party to the people.

According to him, “They have been trying to mobilize the people but they need to go to the grassroots and get the people of the rural areas. The party also needs to work on its internal issues and try to find solutions to the issue of leadership, with a view to resolving the crisis.”

Similarly, Kunle Okunade, a political analyst, said the by-elections were mainly between the APC and the PDP, and so it can’t be concluded that the PDP remains the main challenger to the APC in 2027.

According to him, the ADC cannot make any difference in the by-elections because the party is still at its embryo level of galvanizing public support and acceptance.

“It will take almost one year of rigorous mobilization of their supporters and Nigerians to gain the momentum expected to challenge the APC.” (BusinessDay)