The August 16th supplementary elections that held in 18 constituencies in 12 states of the country has heightened the fears of Nigerians about the 2027 elections.

Reports from the constituencies where the elections held indicate that the exercise, though conducted across a fraction of the country’s voting sphere which should have made for easier monitoring, were adjudged not totally free from irregularities.

They were dogged by allegations of vote buying, widespread violence, voter intimidation, thuggery, amongst others.

Observers say rather than record improvements, the attitude of politicians and the citizenry call for concern.

It was observed that Nigerians have become more worried about the integrity of the electoral process and readiness of the political class and citizens to allow for transparent elections.

On the part of the electoral umpire, some have queried the delay in conducting the exercise, saying it is odd for rerun elections which were supposed to complement the 2023 elections to be held two years after, while those seats that became vacant due to death or resignations have yet to be filled.

Where elections held

The elections held in Ganye State Constituency, Adamawa; Anambra South Senatorial District, Anambra; Onitsha North I State Constituency, Anambra; Edo Central Senatorial District, Edo; Ovia North East/Ovia South West Federal Constituency; Edo; Babura/Garki Federal Constituency, Jigawa; Zaria/Kewaye State Constituency, Kaduna; Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency, Kaduna; Basawa State Constituency, Kaduna; Shanono/Bagwai State Constituency, Kano; Okura II State Constituency, Kogi; Munya State Constituency, Niger; Ikene/Shagamu/Remo North Federal Constituency, Ogun and Ibadan North Federal Constituency, Oyo.

And the court ordered rerun elections in Karim Lamido I State Constituency, Taraba; Kaura Namoda South State Constituency, Zamfara; Enugu South I State Constituency, Enugu and Ghari/Tsanyawa State Constituency, Kano State.

Analysts said since the circumstances under which the seats became vacant vary, there was no need for INEC to have lumped them together insisting they hold in one day and that each should have been held within 90 days that the seats became vacant.

Ebuka Nwaeze, a lawyer who spoke with our correspondent said Section 76(2) of the Nigeria Constitution 1999 provides for National Assembly by-election to be conducted within 90 days, while Section 116(2) of the same constitution provides for State House of Assembly by-elections.

He, however, added that there is no provision for penalty where the time frame is not complied with.

The leading opposition parties, PDP and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) have condemned the last Saturday by-election, saying it did not meet the minimum requirement of a free and fair election in a democracy.

According to results declared by INEC, the All Progressives Congress (APC) secured 12; the main opposition – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won one seat in Oyo State; the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) won a seat in Kano, while the coalition-led African Democratic Congress (ADC) did not win any.

However, while the ruling APC continues to bask in the euphoria of their victory with the Presidency saying that the result was a vote of confidence on the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu government, many Nigerians, political parties and political analysts bemoaned the low voter turnout, violence, intimidation and other unethical factors that dogged the election.

Since the dawn of democracy in 1999, elections in Nigeria have been flawed by various inadequacies and after about 26 years, the situation is yet to change with electoral reforms failing to have a foothold and driving the democratic process forward.

Except in 2015 when late President Muhammadu Buhari of the newly formed APC defeated the ex-president Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, the ruling party always had its way in what many alleged was through intimidation, harassment and incumbency factor.

What transpired at the constituencies

Our correspondents report that the just-concluded by-elections in Kano were that of the Ghari/Tsanyawa rerun and the Bagwai/Shanono by-election.

INEC had during the 2023 general elections declared the Ghari/Tsanyawa state constituency elections inconclusive due to reported violence in about 10 polling units and as such no winner was declared. The state constituency had been without a representative for about two years.

The Bagwai/Shanono by-election was as a result of the death of the elected state Assembly member, Halilu Ibrahim Kundila, who died on April 6, 2024. He was elected on the APC platform.

The APC has since demanded cancellation of the Bagwai/Shanono election, alleging the use of armed thugs, while the NNPP rejected the Ghari/Tsanyawa result, accusing INEC of manipulation.

Meanwhile, the PDP raised the alarm over what it called widespread violence, voter intimidation, and thuggery. This is just as the police confirmed the arrest of 288 suspected political thugs during the exercise.

A coalition of domestic and international observers, including the Society Rights Project, Women Fest for Better Life Living Initiatives, and other civil society organizations, hailed the exercise as peaceful and transparent.

According to their report, electoral materials arrived promptly in most polling units, accreditation and voting were conducted in line with electoral guidelines, and security agencies provided fair coverage that allowed voters to cast their ballots freely.

“Ballot counting was transparent, results were openly displayed, and the process reflected the will of the people,” said Zubair Ladan of the Society Rights Project, who presented the coalition’s findings. The groups also commended voter enthusiasm and urged the victorious party to be inclusive in governance.

However, another observer group, the Centre for Strategic Conflict Management and Communities’ Representatives, painted a starkly different picture, calling for total cancellation of the election over what it described as “a charade.”

Speaking for the group, Professor Muhammad Dauda Mukhtar alleged that the election was marred by violence, with armed thugs, “some wearing red headgears-chasing voters and intimidating APC supporters to give room for ballot manipulation”.

“In Faruruwa Ward, the largest in Shanono, no voting took place as voters were chased away by armed thugs. The worst level of intimidation occurred there, and videos of the perpetrators are circulating online,” Mukhtar said.

He added that election materials arrived late in several polling units and that although some thugs were arrested with locally made guns, cutlasses, knives, and other weapons, security agents were overwhelmed.

Meanwhile, a third group of domestic observers under the Advocacy for Sustainable Development Initiative acknowledged that the election held across all polling units in Ghari, Bagwai, and Shanono, with INEC ad-hoc staff arriving on time and the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) functioning effectively in most locations.

The group, however, decried low voter turnout, noting that female voters outnumbered men in several polling units. They also highlighted inclusivity challenges, including the denial of Braille ballot papers to a visually impaired voter, despite the participation of five persons with disabilities.

Our correspondent in Kaduna reports that the Zaria Kewaye Constituency seat under Zaria Local Government Area of Kaduna State became vacant after the lawmaker occupying the seat, Muhammad Ahmad Dan Asabe, (Chukali) left the seat when he got another appointment in 2023.

He was the former Majority Leader at the State Assembly before his new appointment in Abuja and decided to resign from the assembly.

Similarly, Jamil Abubakar Albani, a former lawmaker at the State Assembly, representing Basawa Constituency under Sabon Gari Local Government Area, resigned to contest the council chairmanship of the local government in 2023.

The Kaduna State chapter of the PDP rejected the results of the August 16 by-elections in Basawa, Zaria Kewaye, and Chikun/Kajuru constituencies, alleging that the process was marred by intimidation, vote buying, and what it called state-sponsored manipulation.

The party’s state chairman, Sir Edward Percy Masha, described the outcome of the polls as “a sham” and vowed to seek redress through consultations with candidates, stakeholders, and its legal team.

“The abduction of our candidate and members of our campaign committee for the Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency, the seizure of funds meant for logistics and agents’ allowances, and the massive vote buying carried out in public glare all point to the desperation,” Masha alleged.

The PDP accused the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) of deploying “gestapo and commando tactics” to undermine the people’s will, insisting that such actions reflect the ruling party’s fear of the opposition’s growing influence in Kaduna State.

Beyond rejecting the results, the PDP expressed worry over the record-low voter turnout witnessed during the elections, saying it highlighted public mistrust in the process.

“If this undemocratic trend continues, the problem of voter apathy will only worsen and reach a dangerous peak by 2027,” the statement warned.

But shortly after the election results were announced, the, Kaduna State Commissioner of Information designate, Mallam Ahmed Maiyaki, described the exercise in glowing terms.

Domestic election observer groups also rated last Saturday’s by-election in Kaduna State as credible, transparent, and a true reflection of the people’s will.

Speaking at a press conference in Kaduna, the Advocacy for Sustainable Development Initiative (ASDI) said the conduct of the polls in Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency and Basawa Kewaye State Constituency was largely orderly and professionally managed by the electoral body.

Leader of the observer team, Abdul Rasheed Shuaib, commended the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for ensuring early deployment of materials and the effective use of the Biometric Voter Accreditation System (BVAS).

“From our observation across the 36 wards and 1,165 polling units in the affected constituencies, polling units opened as scheduled, and sensitive and non-sensitive materials arrived on time,” Shuaib said.

“The BVAS worked effectively in accrediting voters and reducing electoral malpractices, while security agencies were visible throughout the exercise to maintain peace and order.”

The observers, however, expressed concern over voter apathy despite the hitch-free conduct of the election.

But beyond what the observers said, ahead of the by-elections in Kaduna, former Governor of the state, Nasir El-Rufai had made what political pundits described as “a sign of triumphant entry”, but the party he worked for, the ADC, ended up not winning any seat.

However, while some people alleged that he also worked for the candidate of the SDP in one of the contested seats, a credible source at INEC confided in one of our reporters that most governors and their allies saw the by-elections as a do-or-die affair.

“Specifically in Kaduna, the rousing welcome El-Rufai got as evidenced in the number of people that welcomed him made the state government jittery and therefore, they deployed their might to ensure that their candidates win,” the source said.

“It was like a kind of a referendum as far as those in power were concerned, not just in Kaduna but across all the states were we had by-election.

“Their belief is that if they did not win, it means they would be defeated in 2027. This is a terrible antecedent and something must be done to stem the tide,” the source added.

In Oyo and Ogun states, the two by-elections were necessitated by deaths of the House of Representatives seats’ occupants.

In Ibadan North federal constituency of Oyo State, Musiliu Akinremi, popularly known as Jagaban, was representing the constituency before he died in 2024. He was a member of the APC.

For the Ikenne/Sagamu/Remo North Federal Constituency of Ogun State, the former occupant, Rep Adewunmi Onanuga, aka Ijaya, died in January after a brief illness.

Onanuga, who was Deputy Chief Whip, won the seat during the 2023 election on the platform of APC.

The INEC Returning Officer, Prof. Kazeem Bello, announced the final results on Sunday at the INEC Collation Centre, Ikenne.

In Oyo, a group within the All Progressives Congress, Concerned Leaders, declared that imposition of candidate and poor decision are some of the reasons the party lost the election in Ibadan North Federal Constituency.

The group made this declaration via a statement signed by its chairman, Tejumola Adisa.

The group alleged that the imposition of candidate and poor decision made by the minister made the people to reject the APC candidate.

Adisa, who spoke on behalf of the group also alleged that the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, gave the three major appointments allocated to the state to only members of the Accord party, the party under which he contested gubernatorial election in 2023.

“The party failed woefully in the election as a result of the poor decision by the minister to single handedly pick an unpopular candidate out of the more qualified and popular aspirants that bought forms on the platform of the party.

“The unilateral imposition of an unpopular candidate on the party for the election, arrogance, bad human relations and weird allotment of positions and government patronages by Chief Adelabu have destroyed the party in Oyo State,” he said.

Adelabu denied allegations of imposing the defeated candidate on the party.

In a statement issued on Monday through his media aide, Bolaji Tunji, Adelabu congratulated the winner of the election, while stressing that the result was received with mixed emotions.

In Ogun, the Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP) candidate for the Sagamu/Ikenne/Remo Federal Constituency by-election, Mr. Bolarinwa Oluwole, alleged widespread violence and intimidation during the Saturday’s poll.

Oluwole while speaking with journalists claimed that PDP supporters were attacked by thugs allegedly loyal to the All Progressives Congress (APC) describing the election as “a disgrace to democracy”.

He accused security agencies of failing to protect voters, alleging that soldiers and police stood by while people were beaten and chased from polling units.

In Adamawa, Misa Musa Jauro of the APC won the by-election for the State House of Assembly that was held in Ganye Local Government Area of Adamawa State.

The contest was held across 10 wards, with major parties recording split victories.

The election was fraught with political tension as the PDP insisted Ganye remains its traditional stronghold, while the APC maintained a lead having produced the late lawmaker in the 2023 general election.

During the poll, the Adamawa PDP chairman, Ahmed Shehu, alleged that the APC was engaged in vote-buying, a claim an APC stalwart, Dahiru Hammandikko, quickly dismissed as baseless.

The by-election was conducted peacefully to fill the seat left vacant by the untimely death of Abdulmalik Jauro Musa of the APC in May 2024. Musa was the Deputy Minority Whip in the state assembly.

While a few minor hitches were reported in two polling units due to technical difficulties with voting machines, these were promptly resolved by electoral officials, ensuring the process was concluded smoothly.

In Niger State, while INEC declared Mathew Dogari Daje winner of the by-election for Munya Constituency, the candidate of the PDP, Sabo Sunday Adabyinlo, accused the state government of vote buying.

He said state and federal APC stalwarts brought their influence to bear in the Munya by-election and allegedly forced their candidate to power using state resources, while admitting that the election was peaceful.

The by-election was conducted to fill the vacant seat in the Niger State House of Assembly following the death of Joseph Haruna Duza of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Duza, who was elected on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party, died in September 2024.

The Anambra South seat in the Senate became vacant following the death of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah of the All Progressives Congress (APC) — formerly of the Young Progressive Party (YPP) — in July 2024. That of Edo Central became open after the election of Senator Monday Okpebholo of the APC as the governor of Edo State.

‘By-elections are more complicated’

Former INEC director, Mr. Nick Dazang, explained to our correspondent that by-elections and rerun elections are usually harder to conduct because the challenges are concentrated in an election.

He said INEC must insist on doing the right thing to overcome the challenges.

Political analyst, Dr. Kabiru Sufi, described the elections as “largely violent” and a troubling sign for Nigeria’s democratic future.

“The elections have come and gone, but generally, their conduct can be said to be violent. What we witnessed was voter intimidation, violence, and some level of corruption. If this election is a reflection of what we should expect in 2027, then it leaves much to be desired,” he said.

Immediately after the conduct of the election, the Africa Democratic Party (ADC) released a statement expressing worry over the polls, saying that the “exercise once again exposed how far Nigeria’s electoral process has deteriorated under President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).”

Bolaji Abdullahi, National Publicity Secretary of the ADC, said the elections were riddled with widely reported violence, vote buying, manipulation, and other administrative lapses, describing the situation as a sad reflection of how far the system has been corrupted against the will of the people.

“In some states, nearly 300 thugs armed with rifles, knives, and cutlasses were arrested on election day. Is this democracy or banditry disguised as voting?

“In some states, whole polling units were cancelled due to ballot box snatching and the open intimidation of voters. If citizens cannot go to the polls without fear of assault, then the most basic covenant between the state and its people has already broken down,” he lamented.

ADC further said, “In one state, a vote-buyer was caught with N25.9 million intended to procure and corrupt the will of the people. In another, election officials were themselves implicated in similar inducements.

“After so many years, the failure of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) in some states has once again raised questions about the commission’s competence, sincerity, and perhaps, complicity,” insisting that “Nigerians deserve elections that command the implicit confidence of every citizen and respect of the rest of the world. INEC must not be allowed to turn excuses to a code of conduct.”

Also, while reacting to enquiries by journalists on the performance of the party and the way forward, Debo Ologunagba, National Publicity Secretary of the party, said the election in Oyo State took place and people can actually view, see and feel the importance, and see how people participated in the process.

“There are no reports of people being locked up and all that,” he said.

He, however, explained that in Kaduna State, “all members of the PDP, prominent members; were arrested. Flip over to Taraba State, prominent members, including elected members of our party were arrested. We don’t call that an election and we’ve heard about the arrogance of the APC. What they’ve done with those elections to test for 2027.”

The PDP spokesman said the situation will be different in 2027, “but I have bad news for APC. What happened in those by-elections, that they call election, will not happen in 2027. Why? The reason is that Nigerians are wiser. They are hurting. What will be on the ballot in 2027 will be the hunger, the uncertainty, the insecurity that no money can purchase.

“Only last week, in my little village, the chairman of my party was kidnapped. Now, it is so sad that when people get kidnapped in this country, you don’t even talk to the police. They say, go and look for the money. It sounds like a new normal. That’s what will be on the ballot.

“Nigerians will defeat them because they brought hunger to this country. For more than 10 years now, APC has been a point of pain to Nigeria.”

their part, the electoral management body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) defended the conduct of the election, insisting that the process was free, fair and credible despite criticism.

INEC’s Chief Press Secretary, Mr. Rotimi Onyekami, told Weekend Trust that the results across 16 constituencies in 12 states were a true reflection of the will of the electorate.

“The Independent National Electoral Commission’s responsibility is to ensure a level playing field and protect the sanctity of the vote. We don’t take this responsibility lightly. But the commission cannot determine which political party voters should vote for,” he said.

Rotimi maintained that the outcome showed balance and was not skewed in favour of any single party.

“The results of the by-elections held in 16 constituencies across 12 states last Saturday are a reflection of the will of the voters. The process was free, fair, and credible. One party did not win all the seats,” he said.

On technical hitches, he said the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) performed effectively.

“The BVAS performed well, to the tune of over 95 per cent overall, judging from reports from the field. In terms of accreditation of voters at polling units and the upload of polling unit results to the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal, we recorded almost zero negative incidences across the almost 7,000 polling units across the 16 constituencies,” he explained.

He added that where the BVAS experienced slowdowns, INEC’s technical experts moved swiftly to address the issues.

Rotimi reiterated the commission’s commitment to transparent elections, saying INEC would continue to improve its processes to protect the sanctity of the ballot.

In spite of INEC’s position, a political analyst and Development Consultant, Dr. Jide Ojo, said the outcome of the by-election reflected familiar patterns of vote-buying, violence, incumbency influence and low voter turnout, rather than the genuine will of the people.

Describing the elections as “the good, the bad and the ugly,” he said the isolated incidents of malpractice exposed the desperation of politicians to win at all costs.

“We still saw the usual vote buying and violence in some places. From reports, about 323 people were arrested in Kano, while in Kaduna, security agencies allegedly confiscated N25.9 million meant for vote buying. In Iperu-Remo, INEC officials and some party chiefs were also arrested. These may be isolated, but they show that our political class are yet to wean themselves of the desperation to win at all costs.”

Ojo further argued that the persistent problem of low voter turnout remained the “elephant in the room,” pointing out that since the introduction of technology in 2011, inflated figures from underage and multiple voting had given way to the reality of poor participation.

“People often compare turnout in 1999 or 2003 with recent elections, but then there was no electronic accreditation. Technology has exposed the real turnout,” he explained, and called for reforms such as extended voting hours, removal of restrictions on movement, provisions for early voting, and conducting all elections in a single day.

“If we adopt reforms like out-of-country voting and simultaneous elections, turnout will significantly improve,” he added.

On his part, Professor Kamilu Sani Fage, a political analyst, said the outcome of the elections “is not a true reflection of the wish of the people, “ and argued that incumbency and money played decisive roles, warning that the trend poses danger ahead of 2027.

“This election reflects the attitude of our politicians that they must win at any cost,” he said, adding that “wherever a party is in control, it wins. Money politics prevailed and thuggery was widespread”.

Fage noted that both ruling and opposition parties were guilty of the “do-or-die” approach to elections. “Where a candidate wins, he will say the process was free and fair. Where he loses, he will claim malpractice. The truth is that across the board, politicians have not learned any lesson from manipulation,” he said.

Similarly, Professor Abubakar Kari, a political analyst described the conduct of the by-elections as “disappointing,” faulting both politicians and INEC for failing to improve on past experiences.

“All the problems of previous elections resurfaced; vote buying, pockets of violence, needless acrimony, and even premature rejection of results. It is distressing that we don’t seem to be learning any lessons,” he said.

“INEC seems to be toeing the same line as state electoral bodies. Parties in power virtually won everywhere, apart from isolated cases in Kano and Zamfara. Increasingly, outcomes are determined by governors, and that is not healthy for our democracy,” he added.

He said Nigeria’s democracy cannot thrive if elections simply ‘rubber-stamp’ the influence of governors.

“Democracy is about healthy competition and genuine choice. When elections are reduced to transactional politics and open vote trading, it damages our national image. All stakeholders must act decisively before 2027”, he added. (Weekend Trust)