Today, Nigeria stands at a political crossroads. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), under President Bola Tinubu, remains the dominant force, controlling 23 of the country’s 36 states and commanding vast federal resources.

Yet beneath this show of strength, the political landscape is shifting.

The once-formidable Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), long seen as Nigeria’s main opposition, is faltering—riven by internal divisions, defections, and dwindling influence.

In a surprising twist, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), previously a marginal party with only two federal lawmakers, is gathering momentum. Political heavyweights such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi are reportedly rallying under the ADC banner, fuelling speculation of a formidable third-force coalition.

As the 2027 general elections approach, a critical question looms: will the PDP reclaim its opposition credentials, or will the ADC rise to become the true challenger to the APC’s dominance? The answer may reshape Nigeria’s political future and redefine the balance of power in Africa’s largest democracy.

Nigeria’s political arena remains a high-stakes battlefield, with the APC firmly in control. Since 2015, the party has leveraged its hold on 23 states and access to federal resources to maintain dominance. Its 2023 victory, secured with just 37% of the vote, laid bare deep divisions within the opposition, as Atiku Abubakar, then of the PDP, and Peter Obi of the Labour Party split the anti-APC vote with 29% and 25% respectively.

The PDP, which ruled Nigeria from 1999 to 2015 and currently governs 10 states, is now grappling with leadership disputes and defections that threaten its role as the main opposition.

Meanwhile, the ADC has been thrust into the spotlight following the announcement of a coalition involving Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai, Amaechi, and former Senate President David Mark, who now serves as interim chairman. The coalition aims to unify the opposition vote, avoiding the fragmentation that cost it victory in 2023.

With former Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola appointed as National Secretary, the ADC is focusing on grassroots mobilisation and steering clear of divisive zoning debates. Interim National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi described it as “a deliberate intervention, born out of necessity by a coalition of individuals who recognised that Nigeria was sliding dangerously toward a one-party state.”

The ADC’s growing appeal is underscored by its diverse coalition, uniting politicians from North and South. Social media engagement has surged, with posts about the party’s emergence drawing millions of views.

Political analyst Iliyasu Hadi predicts the ADC could soon eclipse the PDP as Nigeria’s main opposition. But commentator Sani Hamisu warns that African incumbents rarely lose re-election bids, noting Tinubu may be even harder to beat in 2027.

For now, the ADC has just two House of Representatives seats, but its cross-regional coalition offers a national appeal that could resonate with voters seeking a credible alternative.

The PDP, meanwhile, is losing ground. Former Ondo governorship candidates Eyitayo Jegede and Agboola Ajayi have defected to the ADC. Across northern states such as Yobe, Gombe, and Adamawa, its grassroots structures are reportedly weakening.

Former Ekiti Governor Ayo Fayose has publicly predicted the PDP will place fourth in 2027, behind the APC, Labour Party, and ADC. “A lot is wrong with our party… the PDP is too weak to take hold of anything lately,” he said.

PDP National Publicity Secretary Debo Ologunagba rejects such claims, insisting the party remains Nigeria’s largest opposition platform with the reach and political strength to defeat the APC. He points to its record in government and credible presidential hopefuls as proof it can mount a strong challenge.

Rifts and realignments

The PDP’s leadership is keen to project unity. In Kwara, former Senate President Bukola Saraki reaffirmed his commitment to the party, saying ongoing repositioning efforts will “yield fruitful results.”

The PDP’s National Convention, scheduled for November 2025 in Ibadan, is seen as a chance to address internal rifts and reassert political relevance. But unresolved tensions involving figures such as FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, Oyo Governor Seyi Makinde, and Bauchi Governor Bala Mohammed continue to cloud its prospects.

The ADC, In contrast, is focused on forging new alliances. Its coalition leaders have pledged to back a single presidential candidate, aiming to avoid a repeat of the 2023 split. Its merit-based approach over zoning could appeal to Nigerians weary of old political arrangements.

Still, its organisational capacity remains untested. With just two lawmakers in the National Assembly, the ADC will need to expand its structures quickly to match its ambitions. Reports suggest it is targeting five governors, including two from the South-East, but no deals have been finalised.

Supremacy

The 2027 elections will test whether the ADC can maintain unity and translate momentum into votes. Social media buzz is one thing; building a nationwide ground game is another.

Some analysts believe the ADC could become the dominant opposition if it sustains discipline and overcomes internal rivalries. Others argue the PDP’s institutional reach and control of 10 states still give it the edge—if it can rally around a strong candidate.

In Benue, former Attorney General Alex Adum has joined the ADC, citing a desire to “rescue Nigeria.” In Ogun, the PDP’s former state chairman Sikirulai Ogundele and 2019 deputy governorship candidate Adekunle Akinlade have defected to the APC, underscoring the volatility of opposition politics.

The APC remains confident. Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo has called the ADC coalition “the greatest factor that has strengthened the APC,” suggesting opposition fragmentation will only boost Tinubu’s re-election chances.

Scenarios for 2027

If Atiku’s political experience and Obi’s popular appeal can be combined under the ADC banner, it could bridge Nigeria’s regional divides and present a formidable challenge to the APC. But personal ambitions could derail the coalition before it even fields a candidate.

The PDP’s November 2025 convention will be pivotal. Success in uniting the party could restore its position as the main challenger; failure could cement the ADC’s rise.

For the APC, a divided opposition is ideal. With its control of 23 states and federal resources, it remains in a strong position. If the opposition repeats the vote-splitting of 2023, Tinubu could secure another term with relative ease.

As it stands, the ADC appears better positioned than the PDP to assume the mantle of main opposition—at least in public perception. Its coalition of prominent figures directly addresses the disunity that plagued the 2023 opposition.

Credible sources suggest several serving governors and senior lawmakers are considering joining the ADC. If these defections occur, the party’s national profile will rise sharply.

The PDP, though weakened, is not out. Controlling 10 states and with a deep political network, it still has the potential to mount a strong campaign—if it can halt defections and resolve leadership disputes. The rise of the ADC may mark a shift in Nigeria’s political balance, but nothing is certain. Politics often takes unexpected turns, and the APC remains a powerful force ready to exploit any opposition misstep.

Whether 2027 becomes a straight fight between the APC and a united ADC, or a three-way contest with a revived PDP, will depend on the months ahead. For now, the race to be Nigeria’s true opposition has never been more competitive or more uncertain. (Sunday Vanguard)