As politics thickens ahead of the 2027 general elections, the ruling All Progressives Congress and the opposition coalition under the aegis of the African Democratic Congress seeking to unseat President Bola Tinubu are scrambling for the 5.7 million votes in the northern state of Kano, Sunday PUNCH’s findings have revealed.

Central to Kano is the state’s former governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, who controls a large following, known as Kwankwasiyya Movement.

Multiple party stakeholders, who spoke with Sunday PUNCH, believe Kano’s votes and Kwankwaso’s standing will be critical to the outcome of the 2027 poll.

Kwankwaso contested the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the New Nigeria People’s Party and came fourth with 1,496,687 votes, majorly garnered in Kano State, his political base.

He got his largest number of votes, 997,279, in Kano State, edging out even the APC, who was in power in the state at the time.

Ahead of the 2027, with the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party and the Labour Party gasping for breath over long-standing internal crises, the ruling APC and President Bola Tinubu appeared poised for victory in 2027, but the recent emergence of the ADC coalition seems to have altered the political calculation.

Led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-governor Nasir El-Rufai, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, who came third with 6.1 million votes in the 2023 presidential election, ex-governor Rauf Aregbesola, ex-Senate President David Mark, ex-Rivers governor, Rotimi Amaechi, the ADC coalition appears to be fast gaining momentum, attracting other political heavyweights across the country.

As political realignments continue ahead of the next election cycle, Kwankwaso remains a coveted figure whose next move could tilt the scales in the fiercely competitive northern region.

In separate interviews with Sunday PUNCH, stakeholders in both the APC and the ADC coalition confirmed that efforts were being made to win Kwankwaso to their corners and secure Kano’s mega votes.

Also, multiple NNPP sources, who requested anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly, confirmed that both APC and ADC leaders had held several meetings with Kwankwaso and other top NNPP figures to negotiate potential support for or opposition to President Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid.

Kwankwaso has remained silent on where he stands, deepening the political intrigues.

In an exclusive interview with Sunday PUNCH, APC National Vice Chairman (South-East), Dr. Ijeoma Arodiogbu, and one of the ADC coalition leaders and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, described Kwankwaso, leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, as a valuable asset to any political party.

Confirming efforts to win Kwankwaso over to the ADC camp in an interview with one of our correspondents on Saturday, Lawal said, “It will be a big advantage if he joins us.”

He noted that due to Kwankwaso’s clout, “some people are reaching out to him.”

“There are quite a number of friends from the coalition who love him to join us, that I know,” he said.

Lawal stressed that Kwankwaso easily ranks in the category of political heavyweights that the ADC coalition is rooting for in its quest to remove Tinubu from power.

“I know people are meeting him (Kwankwaso),” Lawal said, adding, “Obviously, he is welcome (into the ADC coalition) because he is in the category of those who will come with a large number of supporters. Either as Kwankwaso and his supporters or as Kwankwanso and the NNPP. Either way, they are welcome.”

Asked if the ADC coalition is also targeting the NNPP structures, the ex-SGF said, “The coalition is not about political parties, but about individuals moving into it. It is not the logo or letterhead paper that we’re after. It’s the people who make up those parties. They can come in individually or in groups. They are welcome.

“Even if KwanKwaso doesn’t join the ADC, quite a large number of some of his people will join us on an individual basis. Maybe some local government chapters of the NNPP will collapse into the ADC, while the national headquarters might not be inclined.

“Big individuals in the states are joining the ADC, but they are not saying they are joining us from the NNPP or the PDP. Atiku joined the ADC and he didn’t say the PDP Is joining the ADC. So, we are targeting politically influential individuals in their communities. Politics is local; it is at that local level that action is important.”

In February, Kwankwaso and Aregbesola, who emerged as the Interim National Secretary at the ADC coalition unveiling on July 1, held a closed-door meeting in Lagos.

Though details of the meeting held in Aregbesola’s Lagos residence were not disclosed, it was believed to be part of the alliance’s moves ahead of 2027.

Sources in the Osun State chapter of the NNPP said the two prominent politicians discussed issues around national politics.

NNPP chieftain and Kwankwaso’s close ally, Buba Galadima, in a recent interview, said the APC and the ADC coalition were making overtures to Kwankwaso.He, however, said Kwankwaso had yet to take any decision.

“Of course, we understand that the PDP, the APC, and even the coalition have been trying to woo Kwankwaso, but he has remained steadfast and strategic. And we will remain in our party strategically until the whistle is blown for politics,” Galadima said during an appearance on Arise Television’s Morning Show.

The recent resignation of the immediate-past Kano State governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, as APC National Chairman is believed to be part of the political strategy to ease Kwankwaso’s path into the APC.

Insiders say it is part of President Bola Tinubu’s gambit to win Kano’s substantial votes that Kwankwaso controls.

A senior member of the NNPP, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the subject, confirmed to Sunday PUNCH that the ruling APC, through the Presidency, had been in talks with Kwankwaso for weeks about a possible defection to the APC.

The source also disclosed that the ADC had approached Kwankwaso and the party’s leadership to explore the possibility of forming an alliance.

He stated, “We are still in the NNPP. But the APC has been in touch for a while; through the Presidency, negotiations are ongoing. Also, the ADC has reached out to Kwankwaso too.

“Because of his popularity among Nigerians, many political parties want Kwankwaso in their party. But I know that in the coming weeks, Kwankwaso will announce his position, and all our structures will fall in line.”

‘Kwankwaso too smart to choose coalition over APC’

The APC National Vice Chairman (South-East), Arodiogbu, confirmed Kwankwaso’s political value, saying he is wise enough to choose the APC over the ADC coalition.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH, Arodiogbu said, “Kwankwaso is a very formidable politician in Kano. Looking at the population size and the political control he commands, he is a big asset to any party.

“But I can tell you confidently that he knows better than to join that ADC gathering. What they are doing is merely photo-ops out of desperation.”

The APC chieftain accused the ADC coalition of being a shelter for “internally displaced politicians” and argued that the former NNPP standard-bearer would lose credibility if he joins forces with Atiku, El-Rufai, and others in the opposition.

“If Kwankwaso subjects himself to the likes of El-Rufai and Atiku, he reduces his political worth. He will become a follower in a formation led by people who have no solid base anymore. I believe he is too smart for that,” he added.

Arodiogbu insisted that the best political move for Kwankwaso would be to either align with the APC, which currently controls the Federal Government, or retain his influence as a dominant political figure in northern Nigeria.

“In my opinion, it’s better for him to remain independent in the North than to bring himself down by joining the ADC coalition.

“If I were to advise him, I’d say: join the ruling party or maintain your regional stronghold,” he said.

Unease among supporters

Close associates of the ex-Kano governor say there is growing unease among his supporters over his prolonged silence on his 2027 move.

In an interview with one of our correspondents, one of his close associates, who spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the subject, said, “He (Kwankwaso) has been silent about his plans for the 2027 elections. Even those of us close to him don’t know what he intends to do—we’re just waiting for him to decide.

“This prolonged silence is seriously affecting both our party and our group. Since we are already in the electioneering season, many of our supporters expected him to have declared his position by now.

“As a result, Kwankwaso’s support base is becoming unstable, with some members of the NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya Movement leaving in droves to join other parties or support other aspirants. We hope he will make his position known soon.”

NNPP factions divided

Meanwhile, the two NNPP factions hold differing views over Kwankwaso’s alliance and his political worth in 2027.

The anti-Kwankwaso’s NNPP faction, led by Agbo Major, described the ex-governor as a political burden who causes disunity within the party.

Speaking in an interview with Sunday PUNCH, the faction’s National Secretary, Olaposi Oginni, said Kwankwaso’s leaving the party to either join the APC or the ADC coalition would be “good riddance to bad rubbish.”

“Kwakwanso can go wherever he likes; it is good riddance to bad rubbish,” Major said. “He met us in the party, yet he wants to hijack the party from us just because we gave him the opportunity to be the presidential flag-bearer of the party in 2023.

“As far as we are concerned in the NNPP, Kwakwanso is a political liability; he brought disunity into the party. His intention is to pocket the party as his personal property, and we say that can’t stand and it will never stand. As a matter of fact, we are not worried about his exit from the party because he is rather a curse and not a blessing to the party.”

According to Major, Dr Boniface Aniebonam and others founded the NNPP 23 years ago, and the party has been surviving through thick and thin without Kwankwaso.

“As said earlier, he is free to go wherever he likes. For us in the NNPP, it is good riddance to bad rubbish,” he declared.

But the pro-Kwankwaso NNPP faction led by Ajuji Ahmed described the ex-Kano governor as an exceptional leader any political party would be eager to have.

Speaking to Sunday PUNCH through its National Publicity Secretary, Oladipo Johnson, the faction, however, said Kwankwaso remains a member of the NNPP.

Johnson stated, “We know why all political parties want to have Kwankwaso with them—he is popular among Nigerians and a great leader with numerous achievements at both the national level and in Kano State.

“But our position has not changed. All options are on the table, and we are carefully weighing them. At the appropriate time, we will inform Nigerians through you if anything changes.

“So, Kwankwaso is still a member of the NNPP and remains committed to the growth of the party and the development of Nigeria. That is the current situation.” (Sunday PUNCH)