From January 1 to April 1, the population grew by just 20,107 people (+0.0%), reaching 41,548,787, according to new estimates from Statistics Canada.

That’s the slowest quarterly pace of growth since the early pandemic days and the second-weakest in nearly 80 years of record-keeping.

The slowdown reflects the federal government’s efforts to reduce both temporary and permanent immigration.

The number of non-permanent residents fell by over 61,000 in the quarter, led by a sharp drop in international student permit holders, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. StatCan noted that this reduction “is counter to the typical seasonal pattern of an increase in the first quarter.”

Non-permanent resident decline drives historic slowdown

Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO, said the policy shift is contributing to a “major population adjustment” that is now underway.

“Non-permanent immigration to Canada remained negative in Q1 (i.e., a net outflow) following caps on international students and temporary foreign workers put in place last year,” he wrote in a note. “The process of normalizing this segment of the population is now well underway—Ottawa is targeting a 5% share from above 7% at the high. That implies further net outflows ahead, likely right through 2026.”

Permanent immigration, however, remained “solid” by historical standards, Kavcic added, with 104,256 new permanent residents admitted in Q1. Still, Kavcic noted that this is also down from recent highs given reduced federal targets.

Population losses were recorded in Ontario (-5,664), British Columbia (-2,357), Quebec (-1,013), Newfoundland and Labrador (-115), and Yukon (-15). For Ontario and B.C., StatCan said these were the largest quarterly losses since data collection began in 1951.

Alberta continued to lead inter-provincial migration trends, gaining a net 7,176 people from other provinces in Q1—its 11th consecutive quarterly increase.

However, Kavcic noted that affordability-driven migration patterns may begin to shift. “Affordability was probably the biggest reason for movement to Alberta and Atlantic Canada; but with Ontario prices and rents down… the ‘movement-for-affordability arbitrage’ might be running its course,” he wrote.

Looking ahead, Kavcic expects Canada’s population growth to continue cooling, particularly with net births at -5,628 in the quarter.

“The process will take us back to conditions that more closely resemble those in the pre-pandemic decade: About 1% population growth; sturdy permanent immigration, some NPR flows where needed; but fewer babies,” Kavcic noted. (Canadian Mortage Trends)