Against the backdrop of the spike in cost of living triggered by sharp depreciation of the Naira and severe inflationary pressures, Nigerians reduced spending on foreign air travel by 30 per cent to $2.66 billion in 2024.

Aviation experts attributed the development majorly to the 244 per cent depreciation of the Naira to N1,553.73 per dollar in 2024 from N450.71 per dollar in early 2023, as well as the historic rise in inflation to 34.8 per cent in 2024 from 21.34 per cent the previous year.

They also cited the tighter immigration laws in developed countries as well as the removal of Nigeria from the E-visa and visa-on-arrival by some countries, which reduced the number of Nigerians who want to ‘japa’ (flee the country).

Added to the above is the sharp increase in the cost of tickets due to the decision of foreign airlines to price their tickets in dollars following their inability to repatriate their money.

Financial Vanguard findings from the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, data showed that Air passenger travel fell for two consecutive years, in 2023 and 2024.

According to the CBN data, spending on foreign air travel fell by 18 per cent, Year-on-Year, YoY, to $3.09 billion in 2023 from $3.78 billion in 2022.

This trend continued in 2024, when foreign air travel fell again by 14 per cent, YoY to $2.66 billion.

This indicates that Nigerians reduced their spending on foreign air travel by $1.12 billion or 30 per cent in the two years period.

This downward trend sharply contrasts the steady increase from 2021 to 2022, when spendings on foreign air travel rose by 255 per cent to $3.78 billion in 2022 from $1.06 billion in 2020.

commenting on this development, Managing Director/ Chief Executive Officer of Aero Contractors, Captain Ado Sanusi, said: “The first thing I would say is that it is part of the economic pressure affecting demand. There is reduced disposable income. Persisting inflation and currency depreciation have eroded the purchasing class of the middle class, thereby making air travel less affordable to many Nigerians.

“Second is the high cost of living. The cost of living has escalated, prices of basic goods and services are making consumers to sometimes prioritise essential spending over discretionary expenses among which is air travel. If air travel is not totally necessary, it becomes a discretionary expense, which people do not want to engage in.

“Rising cost of aviation fuel, otherwise known as jet A-1, also translates to high cost of tickets. Forex constraints have made it difficult for airlines to procure spare parts, pay for aircraft leases, engine leases and conduct international maintenance. These things have resulted in an increase in the cost of tickets.

“Tighter immigration by developed countries contributes, but it is not too much. For international flights out of the country, there are others. The major one was the inability of International airlines to repatriate their money. Some of the international airlines price their tickets in dollars, and the exchange rate is high; so, chances of Nigerians who have disposable income to go abroad for vacation and leisure travel have diminished.”

Funmi Adebowale, Head of Research at Parthian Partners, attributed the decline in spending on foreign air travel to exchange rate depreciation occasioned by liberalization of the Naira in 2023.

She said: “The successive drop in passenger air travel by 18 percent in 2023 and 14 percent in 2024 is quite troubling, especially when compared to the growth recorded during the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 and 2022. “This decline is driven by a combination of structural and cyclical challenges affecting both demand and supply within the aviation sector.

“At the core of the problem was the sharp exchange rate depreciation, following the liberalization of the FX market in 2023. The aviation sector is heavily dependent on the exchange rate as it affects both operating costs (aviation fuel, maintenance, etc.) and the pricing of aviation products/services.

“Airline operators were also faced with limited access to FX, delaying remittances and affecting profitability. As at early last year, FX backlog to the aviation sector was about $850 million.

“Notably, industry estimates suggest that naira weakness alone accounts for nearly half of the decline in travel revenue.

Another major contributor to the decline in air passenger traffic is the economic hardship faced by Nigerians. Stubbornly high inflation (23.71% as of April 2025) and stagnant wages have squeezed household budgets. For many, travel has become a luxury they simply can’t afford. This erosion of purchasing power likely contributes up to 35 percent of the overall drop.

“Another contributor to the decline in air passenger travel is the tighter visa regimes and longer processing timelines in major destination markets (UK, US, Schengen zone). This factor is responsible for approximately 15 percent of the overall reduction, particularly in the premium and long-haul travel segments.”

People prioritise food over travel

Former General Manager, Public Affairs, Nigeria Airways, Mr. Chris Aligbe, now Chief Executive Officer of Belujane Konzult, said: “It is the economy. Government is making efforts to pull the economy from the doldrums. Yes, they have done a lot, but the impact has not trickled down.

“There is no disposable income. People are making efforts to use their incomes to feed themselves. Under that circumstance, they do not have the disposable income that they can use for flight.

“And because of that, the airlines are suffering because they do not have the passengers. It is an economic situation. Tighter immigration has an effect, but it is not as much as the absence of disposable income.”

Similarly, General Secretary of the Aviation Safety Round Table Initiative, ART, Mr. Olumide Ohunayo, said: “The exchange rate was key. Inflation also affected, making people prioritise getting food instead of social or fancy travel.

“More travel may have happened on the domestic routes than international. The international routes were badly affected by the stringent immigration rules imposed in the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Dubai and South Africa. It is so tight that travel is not encouraged. Again, Nigeria has been removed from the E-visa and visa on arrival of some countries. Capacity is still shrinking for the domestic seats available when compared to what it was about two to three years ago, so I do not expect an increase. We are already half way into the year. We should be looking at 2026.”

In his comments, Dr. Rex Okunor, Director, Safety & Quality, Afrowings Aviation, said: “Passenger air travel has steadily declined over the years, and the situation will continue as long as the present condition exists. Among the factors for the decline are: the depreciation of the Naira. The Naira has strongly depreciated against the US dollar, causing a hike in airfares. This has made air travel less affordable for the majority of Nigerians.

Air operations depend heavily on US dollars; dollars are required to fund operational projects like aircraft maintenance, crew training, and retraining for cabin crew and pilots, as well as foreign certifications such as IOSA and IATA certifications for airlines and travel agencies, respectively.

“Another factor is low foreign exchange reserves. We need to build our foreign reserves (either in gold or US dollars) to make our currency stable.

“Economic hardship, including declining purchasing power, is also a significant contributor to the decline in air travel. As the cost of living increases and disposable income decreases, the majority of Nigerians prioritize essential expenses over non-essential activities like air travel. Nigerians now focus on basic necessities like food, shelter and clothing.

“We are also aware that workers’ salaries have not enjoyed considerable increases to make goods and services affordable. This has limited purchasing power and the ability of many to choose air travel,” he said.

Experts divided over outlook for 2025

The aviation experts and economists were however divided in the outlook for spending on foreign air travel.

Funmi Adebowale expressed optimism, saying that there would be some level of improvement given the relative stability in the foreign exchange market due to the CBN’s reforms. “Also, the local production of aviation fuel at the Dangote Refinery, amid the bearish global oil market is expected to provide a relief,” she added.

However, she explained that the sector would continue to battle with weak demand due to squeezed consumer income.

But Rex Okunor said that unless the conditions that caused the decline change, “we should expect a higher decline in 2025 and 2026.”

He, nonetheless, expressed optimism that “we may have a better 2025 and 2026 if the Naira becomes stable or appreciates, and if we achieve some level of economic growth as a nation.”

On his part, Ado Sanusi, said: “As the economic situation in the country is stabilising and people are adjusting, I could see a steady increase. If inflation reduces, then it will result in people having disposable income, part of which can be used for travel. If inflation continues to grow and the exchange rate continues to increase, then we will see a decline in air transport in Nigeria both locally and internationally. The increase in passenger travel is directly proportional to the economic situation. If the economy improves, we will have more travels; if not, we won’t.”

Also expressing a negative outlook, Olumide Ohunayo, said: “Capacity is still shrinking for the domestic seats available when compared to what it was about two to three years ago, so I do not expect an increase. We are already half way into the year. We should be looking at 2026.” (Vanguard)