This is a difficult period for the New Nigeria’s People’s Party (NNPP) in Kano and its ideological subgroup, the Kwankwasiyya movement, as they are facing a political storm due to the wave of defections which has rocked the polity.

The defection of prominent leaders and chieftains from NNPP in recent months, especially those elected on the party’s platform in the 2023 general election has raised concerns about the fate of the party and the implication on its quest to retain Kano State in 2027.

At the core of the uncertainty is the party’s 2023 presidential candidate and national leader, Rabiu Kwankwaso, whose political fate now hangs in the balance.

The NNPP is a populist political party, predominantly based in Kano State. Kwankwanso, its standard-bearer in the 2023 election came in fourth place, carrying only one state, its stronghold of Kano.

The party later rejected these results and called for a repeat election.

However, it has failed to gain in-road into other states across the country, especially in Southern Nigeria, where the party is virtually non-existent in many states.

Thus, the large wave of defections of members from the NNPP has raised concerns among Nigerians and political commentators.

Just last week, two House of Representatives members, Kabiru Usman and Abdullahi Sani, elected on the platform of the NNPP, defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The notices of defection were read by the Speaker, Tajudeen Abbas, during plenary last Thursday.

The lawmakers who represent Rano/Bunkure/Kibiya and Karaye/Rogo Federal Constituencies, both in Kano, anchored their defection on what they called, the internal crisis rocking the NNPP.

Some other members who are stakeholders in the Kwankwasiyya movement that have also left to the APC are former House of Representatives members Badamasi Ayuba (Danbatta/Makoda) and Sha’aban Sharada (Kano Municipal); former state assembly member Zubairu Hamza Masu; and two former NNPP commissioners, Muhammad Diggol and Abbas Sani Abbas.

The members who resigned their membership, cited what they described as injustice within the group.

This is in addition to the defection last month of Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila, who represents Kano South in the senate.

Sumaila defected after his social media post-featuring a photo with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and a recent meeting with Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, national chairman of the ruling APC, after confirming appeal from his constituents to join the ruling party-suggests an imminent move to the APC.

In the last few months, major leaders of the NNPP/Kwankwasiyya that have defected to the ruling party in include; a member of the House of Representatives, Kabiru Rurum (Rano/Kibiya/Bunkure); Abdullahi Sani Rogo (Karaye/Rogo); who is also a member of the House of Representatives and former Kano State Secretary to the Government, Baffa Bichi.

Similarly, in March, the NNPP lost its only House of Representatives member from Jigawa State, Yusuf Galambi, who defected to APC.

Others were former House of Representatives members Badamasi Ayuba (Danbatta/Makoda) and Hon. Sha’aban Sharada (Kano Municipal); former state assembly member Zubairu Hamza Masu; and two former NNPP commissioners, Muhammad Diggol and Abbas Sani Abbas.

Except for Sharada, most of the defectors were former stakeholders in the Kwankwasiyya movement, who resigned their membership and joined the APC, citing what they described as injustice within the group.

Battle for Kano in 2027?

With over one million votes at stake, the battle over the control of the commercial centre of Northern Nigeria is certainly the main fight here.

Obviously, the APC is still not happy its defeat in the state in 2023 poll from the NNPP, and is bent on taking over the state in 2027. Political watchers say, the desperate attempts to lure NNPP chieftains and weakens the party is perhaps a deliberate strategy to achieve this aim.

The national chairman of the APC, Ganduje has in recent weeks boasted that the party was poised to win the state in 2027, with the defection of key leaders of NNPP in Kano to the party.

Meanwhile, with the current situation, political watchers have asked what future hold for Kwankwaso?

There are debates, if the former Kano governor Will defect like his associates or remain to rebuild the party ahead of the 2027 general elections?

In the few months, there is speculation about his return to the APC, some are also touting him as a possibly vice-presidential candidate in a joint ticket with President Bola Tinubu.

Although, Kwankwaso has done little to dismiss media reports about his potential defection to the APC, but NNPP leaders stated that some of the defecting officials are only doing so for their political gains, and do not have support of their supporters at the grassroots.

They cited recent event, where scores of supporters of the Kano South senator, Sumaila rejected his defection to the APC, vowing never to follow him to the party because he did not carry them along.

“Kwankwaso is still in charge here in Kano forget about what you are hearing in the media, most of those elected officials who defected did so on their own without carrying people in the party at the local level along.

” The people came out to disown them and you saw the reports,” the source said.

The source further stated that many of the National Assembly members who are defecting now to the APC, won election in 2023, not because they are popular because of the party and Kwankwasiyya movement.

The source stressed that Kwankwaso would take the best decision for the party and would meet his supporters to tell them his next move soon.

Speaking with BusinessDay, Ladipo Johnson, the National Publicity Secretary of the NNPP, said Kwankwaso was not joining the APC ahead of the 2027 general election.

Johnson, noted that there was no time the former presidential candidate nursed the idea of joining the ruling party or the Tinubu’s government.

Johnson said Kwankwaso was busy building the NNPP to become a formidable opposition in the country, and was also consulting with politicians on how to build a strong formidable front to rescue the country.

He said the former Kano governor would announce his next political move at the appropriate time.

“It is not true that Kwankwaso is joining the APC. All the stories are sponsored by the APC and Ganduje. They know that even if Kwankwaso joins the APC he is more important than them.

“He is busy working on how to reposition the party ahead of 2027 and consulting with leaders on the best way to rescue the country. Kwankwaso would announce his next at the right time”, Johnson said.

But Temitope Musowo, political analyst, said it was obvious the NNPP must work more harder if its want to retain Kano in 2027, because of the defections of prominent chieftains to the APC in recent months.

Musowo advised the national leader of the NNPP to merge with the Atiku Abubakar’s coalition, stressing that joining the APC may be a wrong decision.

“The best decision for him now is to join the coalition, it is obvious they are targeted, or how would you explain the defections of top NNPP’s leaders recently.

“The APC knows how crucial Kano is and are giving all to get the state. It’s a real battle. But it would be a wrong move for him to join APC now. Is he going to be under Ganduje?

“The best bet is for him, is to continue to build structures in Kano and negotiate with the coalition ahead of 2027”, Musowo said.

Kwankwaso afraid of Atiku’s coalition

Sources close to Kwankwaso, said the former Kano governor is not keen about the proposed coalition by opposition politicians including Atiku, former vice president of Nigeria.

Atiku and some opposition politicians, including former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai and Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general election are at an advanced stage of launching a broad based coalition ahead of 2027.

The source told BusinessDay, that his past association with Atiku did not end well.

The source said Kwankwaso was weighing up his options ahead of 2023 and would decide his direction soon.

“Kwankwaso is not really happy about his past association with Atiku and would not want a repeat of such. He does not trust Atiku and El-Rufai and may not join them”, the source said.

Kabiru Sufi, a political analyst and lecturer at Skyline University, Kano, says Kwankwaso is at a crossroads. Whether he stays with the NNPP or defects, both paths present significant challenges.

“If he stays, he’ll need to rebuild his grassroots from scratch in some areas,” Sufi explained.

According to him, “Many of those leaving helped secure electoral wins in their constituencies. Replacing them will be no small task.

“But if he defects, especially to a party other than APC, he will have to justify the move to both new allies and old enemies.

“On the other hand, joining another party could force Kwankwaso into uneasy alliances or electoral clashes with his former allies. Even within the APC, reconciling with Ganduje’s camp won’t be smooth. He’ll need to reconcile with old rivals or prove his strength in future elections,” he added. (BusinessDay)