Political columnist and public affairs analyst, Majeed Dahiru, has said that the administration of President Bola Tinubu would come to an end in 2027 if former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, is able to mobilise Northern political influencers to support Labour Party’s Peter Obi.

Dahiru disclosed this on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief programme on Friday, where he weighed in on recent opposition realignment talks and El-Rufai’s influence in the political calculations ahead of the next general election.

“If I may put it straight. The day El-Rufai decides and can galvanise the opinion moulders in the North to zero in on Peter Obi, for instance, as the candidate, that will be the end of the Tinubu administration,” Dahiru said.

PDP’s Resistance

There have been coalition talks lately ahead of the 2027 election. Meanwhile, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on Wednesday witnessed the defection of Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, his deputy, Monday Onyeme, and former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa to the All Progressives Congress, along with commissioners and key PDP stakeholders in the state.

Dahiru addressed the ongoing coalition talks and the resistance reportedly coming from the PDP governors. According to the analyst, the PDP’s reluctance to ally is rooted in southern regional interests.

He said, “That’s because the PDP governors’ preferred candidate for the next election is President Bola Tinubu of the APC — because of southern solidarity. The bulk of the PDP governors are from the South. One of their own is in power. They can’t work against one of their own. It’s not possible.”

Citing historical precedents, Dahiru added, “In 2003, the AD (Alliance for Democracy) didn’t field a presidential candidate because of Obasanjo. That is the nature of Nigerian politics.

“When Yar’Adua became president in 2007, a number of ANPP (All Nigeria Peoples Party) governors moved to the PDP. Two governors even married his daughters to gain a footing in the PDP. It has always been like that.”

El-Rufai’s Political Vendetta

Speaking on El-Rufai’s recent defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Dahiru described the former governor’s rift with Tinubu as both ideological and personal.

“El-Rufai has a grouse against the president — a legitimate grouse — because he worked for the president. Hate him or love him, he has a basis to be angry,” he said.

“He has been working assiduously to undermine the president, particularly in the Muslim North, where he is like the caliph to Buhari. He’s the brainbox of the Muslim North.”

Dahiru further suggested that El-Rufai could shift the political tide if he chooses to back a Southern candidate, particularly one from the South-East.

“Let me give him a tip: if he really wants to sit at the back of the president, what he should do — and I think they may already be on that path — is convince the Muslim North to look towards the South for a candidate. Specifically, the Southeast.

“If he’s able to do that — and I know he can; he has the capacity — to shift support to someone like Peter Obi, then that will be the end of the Tinubu administration.”

Nigeria’s political landscape has remained volatile since the highly contested 2023 general elections.

Following his fallout with the APC and a ministerial snub by President Tinubu, El-Rufai formally defected to the SDP in March 2025.

His move was seen by many as a strategic repositioning to challenge the ruling party’s dominance.

The presidency and APC leadership have dismissed El-Rufai’s manoeuvres as being driven by “inordinate ambition,” insisting he poses no serious threat to Tinubu’s re-election.

Meanwhile, Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, has been granted the right of first refusal to fly the party’s flag again in 2027. The party has, however, witnessed growing internal crises and defections. (Channels TV)