Whether by design or default, Nigeria has reached a critical juncture in its democratic journey, raising concern about an institutional meltdown. A nation is at an institutional meltdown when a severe crisis or collapse of one or more institutions can have far-reaching consequences for a society, economy, or political system. Owing to the leadership challenge, the country has faced numerous problems, including corruption, electoral irregularities, security concerns, and a lack of public trust in the judiciary. All of these have had severe and long-lasting consequences on the polity, making it imperative now for the government to address the underlying issues and work towards rebuilding and strengthening institutions of governance, especially the judiciary. The loss of public trust has now severely affected the judicial system so much so that people now choose which court injunction to obey or disobey at the peril of social order. Among others, Osun and Rivers states are currently entangled with what some public affair commentators have described as executive impunity intertwined with judicial rascality.

Due to the prevailing confusion in the two states, the country is now sitting on a keg of gunpowder, as the scenario playing out there constitutes a clear and present danger for the nation’s evolving democracy. While the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) and the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Osun State are struggling over the control government of the local government administration, the tug of war is between 27 defecting lawmakers loyal to the former governor, now the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, and the four-member state assembly working with Governor Siminalayi Fubara.

The current stalemate in the state followed the recent Supreme Court judgment which dismissed the suit filed by the Rivers State Governor seeking the removal of the 27 members of the State House of Assembly over their defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The court, in a ruling delivered by Musa Muhammad, struck out the case after Fubara’s legal team, led by Yusuf Ali, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), withdrew the appeal.

The crisis had earlier led to a budgetary deadlock. In January 2024, a judge of the Federal High Court in Abuja, James Omotosho, nullified the passage of the Rivers State N800 billion 2024 budget, which had been approved by the four lawmakers loyal to Fubara. The court ruled that the passage of the budget by a minority faction was unconstitutional and lacked legislative quorum.

Consequently, Omotosho issued an interim order restraining Fubara from obstructing the pro-Wike legislators from carrying out their duties, withholding funds, or removing them from their legislative duties. Nevertheless, confusion continued unabated until the Supreme Court delivered its judgment dismissing the suit filed by the Rivers State government seeking the removal of the 27 lawmakers over their defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC). The Supreme Court also stopped Rivers State’s federal allocations and nullified local government elections.

Uncertainty has since pervaded the political atmosphere in the state. Although the governor has dissolved the local government administration in deference to the apex court’s ruling, the reinstated lawmakers have revived the threat of impeachment, creating tension in the state. They accused Governor Fubara of violating the Constitution by appointing persons to serve as commissioners without their approval. In a letter signed by the Speaker, Martin Amaewhule, they gave Fubara 48 hours to present the 2025 budget to them.

The matter has yet to be laid to rest, as the state government claims to be waiting for the True Certified Copy of the judgment to determine the next line of action. While the waiting period lingers, tension has continued to build up between the two sides of the political divide.

The same scenario Is equally playing out in Osun State, where Governor Ademola Adeleke hurriedly conducted local government elections last Saturday in deviance from the Appeal Court judgment that reversed the earlier ruling of the State High Court which had approved the suspension of APC chairmen and councillors on the ground that their election did not follow electoral guidelines.

Not unexpectedly, the ensuing imbroglio arising from the Court of Appeal’s judgment that declared the dissolution of elected council chairmen and councilors illegal has taken a befuddling dimension. On the other hand, the reinstated APC council chairmen and councilors, who had taken control of local government secretariats, are insisting that there is no vacancy in their respective local councils. And on the other hand, those newly elected in the last Saturday’s election have been sworn in by Governor Adeleke.

As the populace is helplessly watching the confusion foisted on the state by the warring parties, there is an apprehension that there could be a repeat of the last mayhem that culminated in the killing of six people, including the chairman of Irewole Local Government, Aderemi Abbas, during the struggle for the takeover of council Secretariat.

Without considering the political and social consequences of the present state of lawlessness, the concerned authorities are waiting for the worst thing to happen.

The question is: who bells the cat? And what does the current growing culture of impunity portend for the country’s democracy? This question is a reminder of the challenges and complexities inherent in governance, particularly in a young democracy striving to strengthen its institutions and uphold democratic values. In particular, the Osun and Rivers state scenarios have reignited long-standing question about the role of the judiciary in strengthening democratic governance.

Worried by the lingering crisis in Osun State, Chief Chekas Okorie warned that the prevailing confusion over the fresh local government elections could lead to a violent eruption. Speaking with Sunday Sun in a telephone interview, he said: “This government should be conscious of the danger that is lying ahead. As recently as last week, former President Goodluck Jonathan, at a public event, where he spoke alongside the former Chairman of INEC, Prof Attairu Jega, emphasised that the problem with our democracy was the judiciary and the INEC. I thought that the present CJN was going to build on her initial grandstanding when he came to the office. I thought she was up to some proactive actions to get the judiciary to respond to its responsibility to remove any perception in the public that the judiciary is always easily compromised. Unfortunately, we now have a judiciary that can never give any straight judgment that ordinary people will understand. I have been a victim of a serial miscarriage of justice.

“I am more worried about the Osun State issue because it has the potential for an explosion that will be uncontrollable in a situation where we have two parallel structures purportedly believing that the judgment the Appeal Court gave was in their favour. And Attorney General of the Federal who is a member of the APC has indicated that allocation of funds to local government where election is controversial may not be possible. If Adeleke swears in the newly elected chairmen who will not receive an allocation, the thing may boil over. “People forget easily what brought about the first coup which was as a result of the crisis in the Southwest. Osun State issue also has the potential for explosion.

Okorie, therefore, called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to act fast before the situation gets out of hand.

“The President cannot sir in Abuja and pretends that he does not know that some danger is looming. The judiciary has to do something about the type of judgment some judges give. The judgment that is given in simple English language will be interpreted in different ways. It is not proper. They give judgment that will make you come for interpretation. It is very frustrating, he added.

A former Chairman of the PDP in Lagos State, Tunji Shelle also re-echoed the same apprehension, warning that the crisis in Osun State could lead to a state of confusion and anarchy. He said: “The crisis in Osun State could lead to a state of confusion and anarchy. The Governor is only being careful that is why he has not directed the newly elected local government chairmen to resume immediately.

“The Attorney General of the Federation does not have the right to intervene because it is a state matter. The Governor was right to have conducted a fresh election to the local government. He should allow them to do their job. If APC chairmen want to prove a point, they should go to court instead of disturbing the peace of the state. There cannot be two governments at the same time. It will create anarchy. APC should be careful not to cause confusion in the state so that they can declare a state of emergency.

“In Rivers State, the Governor is on top of the confusion on the issue of the state assembly. He has taken the necessary steps to avoid being embarrassed. And I like his gut. He’s a strong character. If INEC were to be an independent body, they would have conducted another election to fill their vacant seats. The 27 lawmakers laying claim to their seats are not Democrats, they are irresponsible. The judiciary is playing a prank.”

Gen. Ishola Williams (rtd) also blamed the looming anarchy in Rivers on the judiciary, saying there was a lack of integrity in the system. “The confusion in Rivers State is the creation of judiciary. And it is the fault of all these lawyers. The lawyers make a lot of money for creating this confusion. A lawyer is a prosecutor, a lawyer is the Attorney General, and a lawyer also becomes a judge. The legal profession is responsible for the crisis we see in Rivers State. There is a complete lack of integrity in the judicial system,” he posited. (Sunday Sun)