•Over 250,000 dead and billions lost — Can Africa handle the crisis ahead?

By TEMITOPE OLODO

Protests across Africa are evolving into a dangerous new reality, characterized by rising casualties, devastating economic consequences, and growing external influences. Over the last decade, the continent has faced an unprecedented wave of unrest, with 254,502 lives lost and billions of dollars in infrastructural and economic damage.

As food insecurity and political instability are projected to escalate in 2025, Africa stands at a critical juncture. The latest report by TRAZ Intelligence and Security Solutions, titled “Protests in Africa: A Decade of Dissent, Economic Impact, and Legal Development,” offers sobering insights into the continent’s struggle with dissent and its economic and social fallout.

The Data Behind the Crisis

The TRAZ report highlights the devastating toll of protests between 2014 and 2024:

•83,832 deaths linked to political protests, making them the deadliest type.

•Billions of dollars lost in revenue, property damage, and diminished investor confidence.

•116 recorded protests, with significant impacts on small businesses, many of which lacked the preparation to withstand the chaos.

Key triggers include economic hardship, political instability, human rights violations, and demands for social justice. Movements such as Nigeria’s #EndSARS protests demonstrate the convergence of social and political grievances in shaping unrest.

A Continent Divided: Regional Hotspots of Unrest

The report identifies distinct protest dynamics across Africa:

•South Africa: Economic protests dominate, driven by high unemployment, inequality, and inadequate public services.

•Guinea and Algeria: Political protests are frequent, often tied to demands for governance reforms or the ousting of entrenched regimes.

•Nigeria: Protests such as #EndSARS blend social justice demands with calls for systemic political reform.

However, the increasing visibility of external influences—such as protesters in Northern Nigeria and Niger waving Russian flags—signals a concerning trend of geopolitical actors shaping local dissent. These flags have become symbols of disillusionment with Western powers, especially in Francophone African nations.

In Kenya, frustration with political elites has reached a boiling point, exemplified by youths storming parliament in 2024. This bold act of defiance reflects the growing impatience of Africa’s younger generation with unresponsive governance.

Landmark Protests in 2024: A Warning for 2025

Three major protests in 2024 highlight the changing face of unrest:

1. Russian Influence in Northern Nigeria:

Protests featuring Russian flags have raised concerns about foreign intervention in Africa’s domestic politics, signaling a shift in alliances and global influence.

2. Kenyan Youths Invading Parliament:

Disillusioned young people in Kenya’s capital stormed parliament, demanding sweeping political reforms. Their actions underscore growing frustration with governance and could set a precedent for more confrontational protests.

3. Anti-French Protests in Niger:

Niger witnessed mass demonstrations calling for the withdrawal of French troops, reflecting a broader rejection of foreign intervention in Francophone Africa. These protests signal a shift towards demands for national sovereignty and local control.

The 2025 Outlook: A Perfect Storm

As 2025 looms, the outlook is troubling. Food insecurity, exacerbated by climate change and global supply chain disruptions, is likely to fuel more economic protests. At the same time, unresolved political instability in nations like Sudan, Chad, and Cameroon could spark further unrest.

With 52 African countries confronting these challenges, governments and businesses must act now to mitigate the growing risks.

Managing Protests: Strategies for Stability

The TRAZ report emphasizes three key strategies for managing and de-escalating protests:

1. Engage Communities Proactively

Governments must prioritize open dialogue with citizens and civil society organizations to address grievances before they escalate. Transparent communication and inclusive policymaking can build trust and reduce tensions.

2. Train Security Forces for De-Escalation

Security agencies must adopt non-violent crowd control measures to minimize casualties. The militarization of protests often exacerbates tensions and undermines public trust.

3. Implement Structural Reforms

Addressing root causes—such as unemployment, corruption, and inequality—is essential for long-term stability. Policymakers should focus on economic diversification and social equity.

Small Businesses: Preparing for Protest-Related Risks

Small businesses are among the most vulnerable during protests, facing looting, arson, and forced closures. To mitigate these risks, the following steps are recommended:

1. Invest in Insurance: Comprehensive policies covering civil unrest can provide financial protection.

2. Develop Crisis Preparedness Plans: Secure inventory, protect employees, and establish operational contingency measures to navigate disruptions.

3. Strengthen Community Ties: Building goodwill with local communities can reduce the likelihood of being targeted during unrest.

Governments: A Roadmap for De-Escalation

To effectively manage and de-escalate protests, governments should:

•Strengthen Early Warning Systems: Invest in intelligence and security mapping to identify potential unrest triggers.

•Protect the Right to Peaceful Assembly: Uphold citizens’ rights while maintaining public order within international human rights frameworks.

•Address Underlying Grievances: Implement policies that tackle poverty, inequality, and corruption.

A Call to Action

Protests in Africa are more than expressions of anger; they are urgent calls for justice, accountability, and reform. As the TRAZ report reveals, failure to address the root causes of unrest risks plunging the continent into deeper turmoil.

For Africa to turn the tide, decisive action is needed. Governments must prioritize proactive measures, while businesses and civil society play supportive roles in addressing grievances and fostering resilience.

Africa’s protests reflect its struggle for a more equitable and just future. The question now is whether leaders will rise to the challenge or allow the continent to remain mired in cycles of dissent and instability.

To access the full TRAZ report, visit: [www.traz-intelligence-security.com].

•Temitope Olodo is the CEO of TRAZ Intelligence and Security Solutions Limited, specialising in preventive security, political analysis, and strategic mapping.