As the countdown to the governorship election in Ondo State begins to wind down, HAKEEM GBADAMOSI examines some factors that may play a dominant role in swinging the votes.

The people of Ondo State will file out in about 72 hours from now to elect a new governor to pilot the affairs of the state for the next four years. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)is banking on a repeat of the September victory of the party in Edo State, where it humbled the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Whereas 17 political parties are fielding candidates on Saturday, many observers believe that the race for the Alagbaka Government House Akure is indeed between the standard-bearers of the APC and PDP: governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and Agboola Ajayi, respectively.

The other contesters include: Sola Ebiseni of the Labour Party (LP); Olugbenga Edema of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP);Dr Abbas Mimiko of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) and Bamidele Akingboye of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Alignment among these less popular political parties, however, is not ruled out at the dawn of the election. It is also recalled.

Aiyedatiwa and Ajayi share a number of things in common, just as the poll marks the first time all major candidates in an election will hail from one senatorial district. They are from the southern senatorial district and same federal constituency of Ilaje / Ese Odo federal constituency. Aiyedatiwa is from Ilaje LGA, while Ajayi is from Ese-Odo. Both are former deputy governosr to the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Both of them survived the plot to impeach them under Akeredolu, on alleged betrayal.

While Aiyedatiwa is contesting the first elective position, it is Ajayi›s second bid for the governorship seat. He came a distant third in his first attempt, when he contested on the platform of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP) platform in 2020 and was defeated by Akeredolu. Aiyedatiwa, the running mate to Akeredolu in 2020 became governor following the death of his principal last December. Ajayi emerged the candidate of PDP after defeating five other aspirants while Aiyedatiwa won the APC ticket among 17 aspirants in a shadow election.

The coming election Is important to the major parties in the contest; it will rekindle the rivalry between APC and the main opposition, PDP.While the ruling APC will want to make a statement that there is no crack in the political base of President Bola Tinubu, the South-West, the PDP may want to latch on the prevailing harsh economic realities to make a comeback to the South-West region.

However, the incumbency factor at the centre and the state cannot be ruled out in shaping the election. The camp of the governor cum candidate of APC, Aiyedatiwa may be banking on the factor to swing votes in his favour. But some observers say it might not be an easy ride for the APC going by the pulse of the general elites in the state, who are sharply divided over the two leading contestants. Nonetheless, some observers posited that Aiyedatiwa stands a better chance of winning the election because incumbents usually have certain privileges that work in their favour. So, Aiyedatiwa is not likely to be an exemption to the trend.

But the PDP candidate, Ajayi has downplayed the incumbency factor and expressed confidence that his party will defeat the APC in the election. According to him, the late Governor Olusegun Agagu of the PDP defeated the then incumbent governor, Chief Adebayo Adefarati, of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), in 2003, despite the power of incumbency enjoyed by Adefarati, while Dr Olusegun Mimiko of the Labour Party also defeated Agagu during the 2007 election. He said: “Ondo people don’t retain non-performing parties and in the coming election, I can assure you that the PDP is going to defeat the APC government because they have failed them. APC has underdeveloped Ondo State in the last eight years, and I am confident that the PDP is going to form the next government.”

Another factor that seems to be in favour of Aiyedatiwa is the current unity within APC. The party appears to be united, going into the election. The critical majority in the party membership have openly queued behind Aiyedatiwa, canvassing support for his re-election across the length and breadth of the state. The ability of APC leadership to resolve all the tendencies and bring all the aggrieved party leaders back into the fold is an added advantage to the party. The return of political bigwigs such Olusola Oke, Wale Akinterinwa, Oladunni Odu, Mayowa Akinfolarin among others strengthened the APC ahead of the next Saturday›s election. Most of these politicians wield substantial influence in Ondo politics.

The defection of some high-profile politicians from PDP to APC is another factor. Prominent foot soldiers of former Governor Mimiko left PDP for the ruling party but the main opposition party downplayed the defection, describing it as inconsequential and that the party remains strong and unshaken. Its spokesman in the state, Ayo Fadaka, dismissed the defectors as an “excess luggage.”

Beyond all these, the voting pattern across each local government will surely determine who wins the election. The state consists of three senatorial districts with each having six local government areas.

Ondo North

In Ondo North, which consists of Akoko North-East, Akoko North-West, Akoko South-East, Akoko South-West, Ose, and Owo. APC may win at least five of the LGAs except Akoko North-East which is the commercial hub of the Akoko land with its headquarters in Ikare Akoko. APC has a large number of politicians from the district.. The serving senator, Jide Ipinsagba and all the serving House of Representatives are from APC and the Minister of Internal Affairs, Olubunmi Tunji Ojo, are from this area. The machinery used by the APC in 2023 election to win the senatorial seat appears intact and these politicians are duty-bound to deliver at least in five of the six deliver the good. Besides, the deputy governor, Olayide Adelami is from Owo, the country home of the late Governor Akeredolu. He believed to enjoy a remarkable spirit of conviviality and solidarity from the people. The people may want to reciprocate Aiyedatiwa for picking Adelami as deputy and making Owo relevant in the state politics and wipe away their tears.

Some analysts noted that APC might encounter difficulty in Ikare Akoko which is believed to be populated mostly by PDP sympathisers, in spite of the fact that the senator representing the district, Ipinsagba is from Ikare Akoko.

Ondo Central

Six LGAs also constitutes Ondo Central. They are: Akure South, Akure North, Idanre, Ifedore, Ondo East and Ondo West. The APC is obviously favoured in Ondo East and West, because of the influence of former Governor Mimiko.

Despite what some observers described as his tactical indifference to political activities in the state lately, the majority of his foot soldiers across the state have defected to APC.Mimiko has never lost election in these localities. It is regarded as the stronghold of the APC but some observers say the people should look out for a titanic battle in the area between the two leading parties.

The local government with the largest voting strength is Akure South, the landlord of the seat of power. The area houses all government apparatus; it’s a cosmopolitan local government with different clans and ethnic groups. Observers are expecting the APC to make a positive impact because of apathy on the part of most of the elites the state capital on election days.Apart from this, many indigenes of the town are holding various political offices in the Aiyedatiwa government and will be out to justify their inclusion in the administration.

Similarly, Akure North might be a battle ground between the two parties butAiyedatiwa and APC seem to have a little edge. This is because the two local government voting patterns are always similar and the local government was traditionally PDP until recently when politicians from the area defected to the APC.

The Ifedore/ Idanre LGA is under the same federal constituency. Despite being married together based on administrative convenience, their voting pattern is always the same. The PDP might win this area as its deputy governorship candidate cum the lawmaker representing Idanre/ Ifedore federal constituency, Honourable Festus Akingbaso, hails from Idanre. However, pundit predict that Ifedore might go its own way in this election, in appreciation of the number of political appointees from Ifedore. Some analysts predict that Idanre will be a battle ground, because of the influence of the APC chairman, Ade Adetimehin, who also hails from the area and he has consistently has a firm grip on the base.

Ondo South

The local government areas in this zone may be shared between the candidate of APC and PDP. The duo are from the senatorial district. While Aiyedatiwa is from Ilaje, Ajayi hails from Ese Odo LGA. It is strictly a fight between the two LGAs under same federal constituency.The candidates are likely to win their local council if the political calculations on ground are anything to go by. Ajayi is assumed to enjoy a significant support of the people of the Ondo South, who argue that it is proper to allow him in order to ensure two terms for the area rather than Aiyedatiwa who, according to constitution, is expected to spend a term.

The four other LGAs of Odigbo, Ileoluji/ Okeigbo, Irele and Okitipupa will play a prominent role in determining who wins the election. The Ileoluji/ Okeigbo voting pattern is always same with Ondo as the people of ileoluji are believed to be of the Ondo extraction. The leaders from the Ileoluji community, such as Wale Akinterinwa will want to make a statement with the election following the recent reconciliation by the party leadership.

The Odigbo local council is heavily populated by non-indigenes who are mainly farmers from Oyo and Osun states. Their voting pattern is usually tailored with the government in their home states and it will not be a surprise if PDP wins the area due to the influence of Governors Seyi Makinde and Ademola Adeleke of Oyo and Osun respectively. The duo met with these people who are predominantly farmers with very large population and voting strength. The farmers in the area have complained against the destruction of their farms by APC government and have indicated their grievances against the APC government in the state. The two other local government areas, Irele and Okitipupa are of Ikale extraction and their voting pattern remains the same. Traditionally, the areas are known to be dominated by PDP until recently when some political leaders in the area joined APC.

Pundits are also watching the camp of the senator representing the area, Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, who is from Okitipupa local government area. He has been silent lately, even after the reconciliation by the APC leaders. He dragged Aiyedatiwa to court over the outcome of the APC primary before the APC leadership prevailed on him to drop the suit against the APC flag bearer. Some political onlookers noticed that Ibrahim has not been active in the state politics and distanced himself from the party, until some few days ago, urging his supporters to vote APC in the election. (Nigerian Tribune)