For decades, Nigeria’s petrol market has been entangled in a web of inefficiencies, corruption, and the stranglehold of powerful vested interests. The recent launch of the Dangote refinery – touted as a potential solution to the country’s dependence on imported refined petroleum – should, on paper, mark the dawn of a new era for Nigeria’s energy sector. However, the deeper implications suggest that this might be more of a reshuffling of power than a genuine solution to the nation’s fuel woes.

The dysfunction of Nigeria’s state-owned refineries has long been a national embarrassment. Despite repeated and costly efforts at rehabilitation, these refineries have remained largely inoperative. Successive governments have spent billions of naira on so-called “turnaround maintenance,” with little to show for it. Instead, the country has continued to rely heavily on fuel imports, a situation that not only drains Nigeria’s foreign reserves but also enriches a cabal of fuel importers who have thrived under this system.

“Instead, the country has continued to rely heavily on fuel imports, a situation that not only drains Nigeria’s foreign reserves but also enriches a cabal of fuel importers who have thrived under this system.”

Aliko Dangote’s venture into refining was always going to be met with resistance from these entrenched interests. The delays and challenges that plagued the construction of his refinery—once slated to begin production years earlier—were not merely technical. The powerful lobby of fuel importers, who benefit from the current inefficiencies, sought to protect their lucrative hold on the market. Dangote’s emergence threatens their control, and they are unlikely to yield easily.

Yet, the prospect of cheaper fuel for Nigerians – long held as a justification for allowing Dangote’s private monopoly to replace the failed public refineries – may prove elusive. While Dangote’s refinery has the potential to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imports, there is no guarantee that it will translate into significantly lower prices at the pump. The refinery will need to Price its output competitively, but the influence of powerful interests in the market may result in prices that still reflect the complex web of intermediaries and political considerations that have long plagued the sector.

The case of Dangote Cement offers a cautionary tale. Despite being predominantly sourced from local raw materials, Dangote Cement is far from affordable for the average Nigerian. Market monopolies – whether public or private – have a tendency to prioritise profit maximisation over consumer welfare. Without robust regulatory oversight and a commitment to market competition, the masses may find themselves facing similar hardships in the fuel sector.

It Is crucial to recognise that the rise of private refineries is not the panacea to Nigeria’s energy challenges. The real problem lies in governance and regulatory failure. For years, the government has struggled to enforce basic standards in the energy market. Smuggling of subsidised fuel across borders has persisted, even with heavy security presence. This points to a deeper failure of accountability and enforcement that will not be resolved by simply shifting production to private hands.

Moreover, the argument that only the rich benefit from fuel subsidies is a gross oversimplification. Fuel subsidies, while imperfect, have historically served as a form of social welfare in a country where the majority live on less than $2 a day. The removal of these subsidies disproportionately affects the poor, who are most vulnerable to price shocks in essential commodities like petrol. Any reform of the subsidy system must be carefully designed to protect the most vulnerable members of society, rather than leaving them at the mercy of market forces.

As Nigeria charts its path forward, it is clear that the solution to its petrol market challenges will require more than just the introduction of private players. What is needed is a comprehensive energy reform strategy that prioritises transparency, competition, and consumer protection. The government must establish clear regulations that prevent monopolistic practices and ensure that the benefits of local refining reach the average Nigerian, not just the well-connected few.

Ultimately, while the Dangote refinery is a welcome development, it should not be viewed as a panacea for Nigeria’s energy woes. True reform will require a comprehensive and multifaceted approach that addresses the deep-rooted issues plaguing the sector. The government must take decisive action to combat corruption, strengthen regulatory frameworks, and dismantle the stranglehold of vested interests that have long stifled competition and hindered progress. By prioritising transparency, accountability, and the public good, Nigeria can create a more equitable and sustainable energy landscape that benefits all its citizens.

Furthermore, the government must invest in developing alternative energy sources, such as solar and wind power, to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. This diversification will not only enhance energy security but also contribute to mitigating the impacts of climate change. Additionally, the government should focus on improving the efficiency of electricity distribution and reducing losses to ensure that Nigerians have access to reliable and affordable power. (BusinessDay Editorial)