As Nigerians countdown to voting in federal and state-wide elections on February 25 and March 11, respectively, all eyes will be on the umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), to deliver a free and fair election without much hassle. Given the history of elections in this country, the recent changes in the electoral law, and all-round partisan interest by politicians and voters alike, Nigerians have much to expect from INEC in this election.

INEC has come a long way in our democracy, but has not always lived up to the expectations of Nigerians for a free and fair election. Established in 1998 on the eve of Nigeria’s return to democracy after long years of military rule, INEC quickly gained a reputation for overseeing some of the worst elections in Nigerian history. Since the 2011 general elections, however, there are solid indications that INEC’s reputation as Nigeria’s Electoral Management Body (EMB) has taken a considerable positive turn, and today, the commission is arguably one of the most improved democratic institutions in the country, at least, in terms of doing what it does better each time, and improving its processes, procedures and results.

The indications for this are many and varied. Compared to the first three, its last three general elections in 2011, 2015 and 2019 were widely acclaimed as having grown markedly in quality and integrity by local and international observers alike. Second, opposition parties and candidates have won against incumbents in presidential, gubernatorial, senatorial, and recent other elections, indicating the growing independence of INEC as an EMB. Of the past four off-season governorship elections held in the 20-month period between September 2020 and July 2022 in Edo, Anambra, Ekiti and Osun states, three were won by opposition party candidates, and only one by the ruling party at the national level. This was not the case in the past.

Third, the number of elections overturned by the courts has reduced significantly in Nigeria since 2011, indicating improvements in INEC’s systems and methods over the last three election cycles. For example, of the five governorship elections conclusively upturned by the courts in the 20-year period between 2003 and 2023, four of them happened before 2011, and only one—that of Emeka Ihedioha of the PDP to Hope Uzodimma of the APC in 2019—occurred after 2011. The most recent case of such governorship elections that of Osun State in 2022, is still in court and no one knows yet what the final outcome will be. Therefore, the fact that major elections declared by INEC are holding up to scrutiny by the courts since 2011, unlike in the past, is itself both a reason and an indication of Nigerians’ growing confidence in the commission and its systems.