Moves by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara to defect from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) appear to be hanging in the balance.

The Speaker, who has been having a running supremacy battle with the governor of his home state, Bauchi, Mohammed Abubakar is presently walking a tightrope.

Having been allegedly squeezed out of the scheme of things by Governor Abubakar, it has become increasingly difficult for Dogara to gain control of politics back home.

The Speaker’s utterances and body language in recent times tend to suggest a slant towards the PDP, had boycotted the recent state and local government congresses in Bauchi State.

Dogara, who was initially rumoured to have resolved to defect about the same time the President of the Senate, Dr Bukola Saraki defected from the APC to the PDP about two weeks ago, was forced to put his plans on hold.

Following the defection of 37 members on the floor of the House in July, the numerical strengths of the various political parties were altered.

At present, the APC still holds a majority of 192 members; closely followed by the PDP with 156. APGA -five; ADC -four; Accord Party -one; SDP -one; and one vacant seat.

As it were, it would require a two-thirds majority of 240 members to remove Dogara should he defect to the PDP with 156-member strength.

Put together, the number of APC members joined with other parties stood at 204 against PDP’s 156 members. This still leaves a gap of 36 members to attain the 240-member two-thirds requirement.

It can be taken for granted that none of the 156 PDP members would vote in favour of Dogara’s removal in event of his defection to the main opposition party.

Apparently, the horse-trading that led to the recent defection of 37 members, mostly from the APC, was meant to weaken the numerical strength of the ruling party in the House.

With recent developments in the National Assembly, particularly last Tuesday’s botched attempt, allegedly by the APC senators to impeach Saraki, the coast appears clear for Dogara to make good his threat any time soon.

Dogara may ride on the crest of the global uproar and condemnation that greeted the alleged attempt to impeach Saraki with the invasion of armed and hooded operatives of the Department of State Security (DSS).

Going by the timeline in the electoral timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), political parties are to conclude their nominations into the various elective positions from August 18 to October 7.

Apparently to beat the INEC timetable and to accommodate prospective defectors, the leadership of the PDP had deliberately relaxed its guidelines regarding the time frame allowed for new members to contest elective positions in the general elections.

•Excerpted from The Nation report

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