In his book, “The Wealth and Poverty of Nations”, David S. Landes argues that all the ills that have plagued Latin America and the Middle East are exponentially compounded in sub-Sahara Africa: incompetent leadership, poverty, hunger and disease. And coming to specifics he stated: “Of all the so-called developing regions, Africa has done worst: gross domestic product per head increasing, may be by less than 1 percent a year; statistical tables sprinkled with minus signs; many countries with lower income today than before independence. The failure is the more poignant when one makes the comparison with other parts: in 1965, Nigeria (oil exporter) had higher GDP per capita than Indonesia (another oil exporter); twenty-five years later, Indonesia had three times the Nigerian level.”

While comparing Nigeria and Indonesia, Landes asked rhetorically: “If Indonesia could do so well, why not Nigeria?” That question is hanging in the air especially at a time we are just getting out of the hangover of the centenary celebration of our country. However, it is instructive that the party mood was punctuated by three unrelated but critical events that spoke both to our past and perhaps more tellingly, to the future.

One, in the week of the centenary, Boko Haram insurgents made sure they dominated the headlines with the bestial killings of innocent school children that have not only thrown several parents into sorrow but have also threatened the future of our country. Nobody has captured the situation more succinctly than Speaker Aminu Tambuwal who on Tuesday said most poignantly while addressing a special session of the House of Representatives: “We cannot claim to be one nation, if we cannot find unity in grief; just as we cannot claim to be a great nation when we are incapable of preventing horrendous attacks on our children peacefully asleep in their beds.”

Two, while we were still in the centenary mood, the United States Government released its annual “Country Reports on Human Rights Practices” which classified Nigeria as a corrupt country with a poor governance record. And perhaps to drive the message home, the American Justice Department announced that it had uncovered several hidden portfolio investments and bank accounts in France, United Kingdom and other countries totalling about $458 million –Nigerian money stolen by the late General Sani Abacha. The announcement was perfectly timed to coincide with the coronation of the late Head of State as one of the most distinguished 100 Nigerians of the last century!

Three, as the centenary ball was going on in Abuja, Nigerians were groaning under the yoke of a national fuel scarcity. The scarcity remains till today without any coherent explanation for the national disgrace – a sad reminder of how we have mismanaged the critical oil and gas sector and with it, our country. Unfortunately, we have not learnt our lesson that no serious people would build a future around rent as we seem to be doing (because the obsession about the so-called National Conference is no more than how to preside over the modalities for sharing the proverbial ‘national cake’).

In the “Special Issues 2005” on Leadership by the American NEWSWEEK magazine, Moses Naim, former Venezuelan Minister of Industry and Trade, contributed a piece which vividly captures the reality of the Nigerian condition. According to Naim, in countries without well developed democratic institutions, and an easily manipulated public sector, oil “breeds corruption, inequality, jobless growth and power struggles that naturally concentrate on the control of the main, and often the only significant, national industry. Oil also gives the government enormous power and autonomy as it provides it with revenues that do not depend on taxing the voters. They, in turn, are severed from their elected officials who easily become unresponsive and unaccountable thanks to the capacity to allocate immense financial resources at their disposal.”

The centenary anniversary has come and gone just as we have already started the journey into the next 100 years. Therefore, what we make of the future is now in our hands. I am aware there is a feeling of despondency across the nation today but the pertinent question remains: Are we going to continue repeating the mistakes of the past or are we ready to seize the future? How we respond to that question will determine how we fare in the next 100 years.

Notwithstanding the disappointments and the failings of the past, I remain optimistic about the future of Nigeria. And my optimism is based on our human resources endowment, the capacity of our people and the richness of our land. A nation so blessed cannot but at some point discover its destiny. The question has always been on how long it will take us to get our acts together. The late Bashorun Moshood Kashimawo Abiola once said that the problem of Nigeria is like that of NEPA (before it changed name to PHCN and to whatever now!). According to Abiola, the prescription is also the same. Sounding poetic, he said: “To address either of the two problems, all you need is just one good transformer!”

One day, our nation will be blessed with such transformers who would place the service of the nation above all other interests. Then Nigeria will harness its enormous human and material potentials in fulfillment of its manifest destiny. That is why I choose to end my centenary contribution with an interesting internet story I once came across of a man who had four sons and wanted them to learn not to judge things too quickly. To achieve his aim, he sent them each on a quest, in turn, to go and look at a pear tree that was a great distance away. The first son went in the winter, the second in the spring, the third in summer, and the youngest son in the fall.

When they had all gone and returned home, he called the children together to describe what they had seen. The first son said that the tree was ugly, bent, and twisted. The second son said no it was covered with green buds and full of promise. The third son disagreed; he said it was laden with blossoms that smelled so sweet and looked so beautiful, it was the most graceful thing he had ever seen. The last son had a completely different perspective; he said the pear tree was ripe and drooping with fruit, full of life and fulfillment.

The man then explained to his sons that they were all right, because they had each seen but only one season in the tree’s life. He told them that you cannot judge a tree, or a person, by only one season, and that the essence of who they are and the pleasure, joy, and love that come from that life can only be measured at the end, when all the seasons are up. I hasten to add that you also cannot judge a nation by a season!

The father concluded: “If you give up when it’s winter, you will miss the promise of your spring, the beauty of your summer, fulfillment of your fall. Don’t let the pain of one season destroy the joy of all the rest. Don’t judge life by one difficult season. Persevere through the difficult patches and better times are sure to come.”

I wish Nigeria the best in the next 100 years.

•This piece by Adeniyi (shown in photo) originally appeared under the heading ‘Nigeria and the Next 100 Years’ in his column “The Verdict” in today’s edition of ThisDay. Adeniyi can be reached via olusegun.adeniyi@thisdaylive.com

Update news