Looking at the on-going gubernatorial race in Anambra State, it is fascinating to note how Chief Willie Obiano has made a swift transition from a political dark horse to the candidate to beat. It is interesting to see how the early campaign question has changed from “Who is Willie Obiano?” to “Vote for Chief Willie Obiano.” Beneath the surface is a swelter of factors that offer a rich reference material to students of modern Nigerian politics which we shall presently examine.

First, it is pertinent to note that stripped to bare bones, the Anambra gubernatorial race is essentially a straight forward contest between Willie Obiano and Chris Ngige. The other candidates are simply blind soldiers who are out to enrich the conversation. Truth is; neither Labour Party’s Ifeanyi Ubah with a heavy debt overhang weighing him down and the whistles of AMCON and EFCC behind him, nor the unknown Tony Nwoye of what is left of the battered PDP in Anambra State stands a chance in the coming poll. The rest of the candidates are in the race for other reasons outside of victory. Now, straight to the point…

To many observers, Senator Chris Ngige of the APC was a front-runner in the coming Anambra poll until Willie Obiano picked up the APGA flag. Obiano’s emergence is a political master-stroke which took the emotional wisdom and political astuteness of Governor Peter Obi and Chief Victor Umeh to hatch. In one fell swoop, Obi and Umeh seemed to have answered a melange of questions – namely, the clamour by Anambra North Senatorial Zone to produce a governor, the search for a well-educated leader and a thoroughbred professional with an eye for results and finally and perhaps more importantly, a spotless candidate without the usual baggage of the typical Nigerian politician. It is evident that it took a lot of mental work to arrive at this decision but in drafting a man who approximates all these requirements, Obi and Umeh have proven themselves worthy of reckoning whenever the discussion is on Nigeria’s crop of emerging political strategists.

Since he emerged the standard bearer on the APGA platform ahead of many presumably great aspirants, it was always clear to anyone with any power of discernment that Chief Willie Obiano should not be treated like the regular political dark horse. Unfortunately, APC candidate, Senator Chris Ngige who has been around much longer in politics, failed to read the political temperature well this time. Now, he is paying for it. The APC Senator’s earliest mistake since the political rainclouds began to gather was to fan his personal ego and grow in self-entitlement. It is understandable, though. After a decade of a controversial political career in one state, a sense of self-entitlement comes natural. His second mistake was in misreading the mood of the Anambra people. But after ten years of a hegemonic hold on the political life of Anambra State, it is only natural that the people would begin to envision a future without one man even if they still look back at all the drama he had provoked with nostalgia. Facts on the ground show that Ndi Anambra have grown weary of just having one man abbreviate their political aspirations, even if that man comes with all the cunning wisdom of an Ngige. In fact, it ought to have been inconceivable that Chinua Achebe’s people would suffer any form domination for so long. Sadly, this lesson was lost on the Idemili-born Senator. The third mistake Chris Ngige made was to underestimate his opponent. Lao Tzu, the great 6^th century oriental philosopher and founder of philosophical Taoism, warns that “there is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.” Unfortunately, Ngige did just that. Close friends say that earlier in the life of his campaign, Senator Ngige did not put much weight on Obiano’s emergence as APGA candidate. He was quick to dismiss him as a lightweight, leading to the initial grandstanding and regrettable claims by his campaign team that the APC candidate had no need for advertising since he had no match in the race. We all know better today, I suppose.

Interestingly, a major reason for Obiano’s growing appeal among the voting population in Anambra State stems from Ngige’s declining popularity. Ancient Greek philosopher, Aristotle, opines that “Nature abhors a vacuum.” The eclipse of one star creates room for a new one to rise. Ngige’s political eclipse which began with his vocal defence of the deportation of his brothers from Lagos took a further push down the slope when against logic, he choose to kick-off his campaign in Onitsha on the day of the Ofala Festival. These are avoidable acts of intransigence which among a proud people could equate to high treason. Again, it is not clear whether he did it but the alleged slapping of a Catholic Priest in a state where Catholic faithful are in the majority at election time seems nothing less than a political suicide.

It is interesting to note that quite remarkably, the aftermath of Ngige’s seeming acts of treachery have begun to elicit negative reactions from highly respected and organised groups in Anambra State. For instance, the APC Senator who is from Alor in Idemili Local Government Area, was firmly shut out of the activities marking this year’s celebration of the Idemili Day, which took place at the St. Alphonsus Catholic Church compound in Nkpor-Uno on Saturday, October 26, 2013. On the other hand, Obiano was warmly received and celebrated by the Nzuko Imobi who organised the event and endorsed by notable traditional rulers from the zone who were in attendance. Many observers see this as a bold statement of rejection of the Senator by his own kinsmen in reaction to his recent political misadventures. Another action that signposts the disapproval of his kinsmen for his recent actions is the wholesale endorsement of Willie Obiano by the traditional rulers of Dunukofia kingdom, another large group in the Anambra Central Zone whom Senator Ngige represents in the upper legislative chamber. In giving their endorsement, the monarchs were simply emphasising a complete break of the ties that once bound them to Ngige.

Increasingly, it is becoming clearer that Obiano’s growing appeal also owes its origin to the crass ineptitude demonstrated by other parties in their choice of flag-bearers. While PDP has been stymied in an intractable hydra-headed wrangling that has robbed the party of any known arrowhead for the coming election, Labour Party’s choice of a candidate that has whistles blowing all over him shows a certain lack of nuance in their political thought. Truth is; it would be difficult to position a school certificate holder for an electoral victory in the 21^st century and certainly not in Chinua Achebe’s state. Let it be known though that the Labour Party candidate, Ifeanyi Ubah, is an admirably gutsy young man who has impressed many Nigerians with his efforts to impose himself on a political environment hitherto dominated by the cerebral and the educationally accomplished. However, the growing feeling among his many admirers is that Mr. Ubah can find other creative ways to serve his people and leave political leadership to people who have prepared themselves by going through the academic and professional crucibles over the years to acquire the necessary skill sets that are needed for modern leadership. So far, Ubah has impressed with his aggressive campaign but his positioning has been largely ambiguous and lacking in rhetoric. Indeed, what large claims can the Ubah team make? His handlers have had more challenge fending off charges from AMACON and Ubah’s many creditors than settling down to define any known campaign strategy. All these have worked in Obiano’s favour.

Another factor that has made Obiano’s route to Amawbia Government Lodge a fait accompli is the unassailable logic of zoning and its well-known effectiveness as a tool for political negotiation and harmony in modern Nigeria. From this perspective, Obiano looks every bit like a leader whose time has come. The people of Anambra North Senatorial Zone have always felt short-changed and shut out of serious leadership roles in the state since its creation, 22 years ago. Many political observers knew that it was just a matter of time before their silent grumbles began to take the shape of a deafening roar. Governor Peter Obi showed great political sensitivity when he gave them his assurances that one of their best sons would get a fair chance to succeed him. So far, Obi has kept his pact with the leaders of Anambra North. What is left is for Obiano to convince the rest of Ndi Anambra that he truly deserves their confidence and their votes.

So far, too, Obiano seems to have mastered the ropes in record time. He has maintained a dignified presence in the bedlam that the Anambra gubernatorial race has been. His speeches have shown the tact and foresight of a great leader. Of special note is his speech at the formal campaign kick-off at the Alex Ekwueme Square in Awka where he made calls that firmly positioned him as an emerging leader of Ndigbo. His followers also claim that his campaign promises are not off-kilter like those of some of his opponents who have been promising to build an airport in Omambala; a distance of about 5 kilometres from neighbouring Asaba Airport. At the same time, Obiano is believed to have been consulting widely and earning the confidence of community leaders across the length and breadth of the state. His campaign tour of Lagos and Enugu were massive carnivals where Anambra people resident in the two cities gave him wide endorsements. His fundraising at the Federal Palace Hotel in Lagos was attended by some of Anambra’s most illustrious sons and daughters who made generous donations and pledges to his war chest. Traders in Onitsha and Awka markets wilfully shut their shops to honour him while lovers of culture brought out masquerades to enliven his campaign outings in Awka and Onitsha.

In all, the lines have fallen onto Chief Willie Obiano in pleasant places. The ex-banker has only himself to beat on November 16, 2013.

•Nweze (shareadrink@gmail.com), a Public Affairs analyst, writes from Ogbunike, Anambra State. Photo shows Obiano.

Update news