Kidnappers demanded at least N81.9bn from victims and their families across Nigeria between July 2023 and June 2026 but received N11.4bn, an analysis of three years of data on the country’s kidnap economy has shown.

Findings by The PUNCH from three consecutive annual reporting periods covered by SBM Intelligence’s reports on Nigeria’s kidnap industry also showed that at least 20,115 people were abducted during the period, highlighting the human and financial toll of the country’s worsening kidnapping crisis.

The amount collected represented about 13.9 per cent of the total ransom demanded.

However, annual payments rose more than sevenfold (about 642 per cent) over the period, from N1.05bn in 2023/24 to N7.78bn in 2025/26, despite wide fluctuations in the number of victims and ransom demands.

The most recent SBM report said, “The economics have inverted. Ransom demanded fell from N48bn to N22.9bn, yet the amount actually paid more than tripled, from N2.56bn to N7.78bn. The collection rate jumped from 5.35 per cent to 34 per cent.”

A breakdown showed that 7,568 people were abducted in 1,130 incidents between July 2023 and June 2024. Kidnappers demanded N10.995bn and received N1.048bn, representing 9.5 per cent of the amount requested.

“Between July 2023 and June 2024, our research found that no fewer than 7,568 people were abducted in 1,130 incidents across the country.

“In that same period, kidnappers demanded at least the sum of N10,995,090,000 (approximately $6,871,931) as ransom but received N1,048,110,000, a mere 9.5 per cent of the money demanded,” the 2024 report said.

The number of victims subsequently declined to 4,722 between July 2024 and June 2025, but the financial demands moved in the opposite direction.

Kidnappers demanded about N48bn during the period, more than four times the previous year’s figure, while documented payments rose to N2.56bn. The collection rate nevertheless dropped to 5.35 per cent.

Compared with 2023/24, the number of abductees declined by 37.6 per cent, while the amount demanded increased by about 337 per cent.

The figures suggest that the scale of initial ransom demands does not necessarily move in line with the number of people kidnapped.

The trend shifted again in the latest reporting period.

Between July 2025 and June 2026, the number of people abducted surged by about 66 per cent to 7,825, while ransom demands fell by more than half to N22.856bn. Actual payments, however, jumped to N7.779bn, equivalent to 34 per cent of the amount demanded.

SBM said 7,825 people were abducted in 1,411 kidnapping incidents during the period, while another 302 kidnap-related incidents involved security operations against kidnappers. At least 1,142 people were killed in the combined incidents.

The three-year analysis showed that the N7.78bn paid in the latest period accounted for about 68 per cent of all documented ransom payments across the three reporting cycles.

The sharp increase was driven largely by two mass abductions involving exceptionally large payments.

According to SBM, N5bn was paid for 416 captives abducted from Ngoshe in Borno State, while N2bn was paid for 315 pupils and staff abducted from St Mary’s School in Papiri, Niger State.

“Between them, these accounted for N7bn, almost the entire national ransom bill,” the report said.

The two incidents alone accounted for about 90 per cent of ransom payments in 2025/26 and roughly 61 per cent of the N11.4bn documented over the entire three-year period.

SBM’s analysis also showed that most of the latest payments went to one armed group.

The Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati Wal-Jihad faction of Boko Haram was linked to eight ransom cases in which N9.205bn was demanded and N7.002bn collected. That translated to a 76.1 per cent collection rate and about 90 per cent of all ransom payments documented in 2025/26.

In contrast, the report grouped bandits and other profit-driven criminal kidnappers under a broader “kidnapper” category, which accounted for 146 cases. They demanded N13.492bn but received N719.4m, representing a collection rate of just 5.3 per cent.

Other identified actors received relatively small amounts. ISWAP was linked to N53m in payments, while N5m was attributed to cases involving suspected Fulani herdsmen.

SBM said the figures revealed two distinct sides of the kidnap economy — a high-volume criminal market in which large opening demands are negotiated down substantially and a smaller number of attacks involving organised armed groups capable of extracting considerably larger payments.

“Measured by what was demanded, the kidnap economy is a crime of the many. Measured by what was actually paid, it is dominated by a single terrorist organisation,” the report stated.

SBM explained that the large differences between demands and eventual payments also reflected how ransom negotiations work.

Under its methodology, the organisation records the first amount demanded when kidnappers establish contact with victims’ families. Such demands are often substantially reduced before hostages are released.

“More often than not, these first demands are exorbitant and, depending on the socio-economic status of the victims, are beaten down to a figure acceptable to both parties,” it said.

The N11.4bn documented over the three years may also underestimate the actual amount transferred to kidnappers because many payments are never publicly disclosed.

The 2024 report said there were cases where the ransom demand was not disclosed even though a payment was reported, while some organisations, particularly government bodies, declined to disclose whether they paid ransoms.

The changing profile of victims has also affected the economics of the crime. SBM observed in its 2024 report that kidnappers had become less selective, with ordinary Nigerians increasingly targeted alongside wealthy individuals.

That expansion coincided with the growing use of mass abductions.

Between January and June 2024 alone, SBM identified 135 mass-abduction incidents involving at least five victims each. A total of 3,277 people were kidnapped in those attacks, and 125 were killed.

By 2025/26, mass abductions accounted for 79.5 per cent of all victims, meaning nearly four out of every five people kidnapped were seized in group attacks.

Zamfara recorded 92 mass abductions during the latest period, followed by Sokoto with 76. SBM also identified a resurgence in school abductions, warning that their effects extended beyond ransom payments to education, farming and public confidence.

Northern Nigeria remained the epicentre of the crisis.

The latest report showed that 7,334 of the 7,825 victims recorded in 2025/26 were abducted in the North, accounting for 93.7 per cent of the national total.

Zamfara recorded 236 kidnapping incidents involving 1,921 victims, nearly one-quarter of all abductees nationwide. Sokoto followed with 1,157 victims, Kaduna with 814, Katsina with 559 and Kwara with 265.

A similar pattern was evident in 2023/24, when Zamfara led with 1,639 victims, followed by Kaduna with 1,113 and Katsina with 887.

Kidnapping also became increasingly deadly. The 2024 report recorded 1,056 deaths from 1,130 reported kidnapping incidents.

“On average, someone is killed each time there is an attempted kidnapping,” SBM said.

Cash payments also capture only part of the economic burden imposed on families.

The reports showed that kidnappers sometimes demanded motorcycles, food, drinks, cigarettes and other goods. In 2025/26, demands involving goods, motorcycles, phones, food and fuel were documented in 14 incidents.

SBM said the practice reflected an industry adapting its demands to the limited financial resources of victims.

Even paying a ransom did not guarantee survival. The latest report found that victims were killed after payment in at least six cases, while people tasked with delivering ransom payments were themselves increasingly at risk of abduction.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Young Progressives Party, Wale Egbeola-Martins, earlier told The PUNCH that the security situation in the country had reached an alarming level.

“The fact that the abductors are reportedly demanding ransom underscores the dangerous scale of the kidnapping economy and the urgency with which the government must act,” he said.

He called on the President Bola Tinubu-led government to demonstrate greater capacity and political will to tackle insecurity.

“Government cannot continue to respond to abductions after they occur; it must develop intelligence-driven, preventive security measures that make kidnapping increasingly difficult and unprofitable.

“If the government continues to fail in its fundamental responsibility to protect lives and property, Nigerians will have the opportunity in 2027 to make their judgment at the ballot box,” he said. (The PUNCH)

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