As the campaigns for the 2027 general elections begin following the signing of the Peace Accord last week by presidential candidates, there are fears over the likelihood of the exercise snowballing into brinkmanship.

Specifically, there are concerns that the contest could descend into an increasingly bitter and divisive struggle, with hate speech, ethnic profiling, misinformation and political violence threatening to overshadow the issues that matter most to Nigerians.

The presidential and National Assembly campaigns officially commenced on Tuesday, August 19, 2026, and would run until January 15, 2027, exactly 24 hours before the presidential and National Assembly elections scheduled for January 16, 2027.

Also, the governorship and state House of Assembly campaigns would commence on September 9, 2026, and end on February 5, 2027, ahead of the elections scheduled for February 6, 2027.

Last week, some presidential candidates signed the National Peace Accord, thereby committing themselves to peaceful conduct and issue-based campaigns ahead of the elections.

The accord, facilitated by the National Peace Committee and supported by the Kukah Centre, is expected to serve as a framework for responsible political engagement as the parties and their candidates intensify mobilisation across the country.

Presidential candidates who signed the Peace Accord include Mr Peter Obi of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), Prince Adewole Adebayo of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Mr Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress (AAC).

President Bola Tinubu, who is the presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC) in the January 2027 election, was represented at the occasion by the Secretary to the Federal Government, Mr George Akume, while the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, simply stayed away without offering explanation for his action.

Tinubu, Atiku and Obi are widely believed to be the main candidates in the presidential election.

Significantly, Atiku just recently dragged Tinubu to court over his qualifications for the election, alleging that, contrary to his claims in the forms submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the president never participated in the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC).

The NDC candidate is also pursuing a case in the United States (U.S.) in which he is asking the FBI to release details of a drug case in which Tinubu forfeited some funds to the country’s government.

This appears to be a replay of the 2023 episode in which both candidates in then-presidential election resorted to personal attacks.

For Atiku and Obi, their supporters have resorted to a bitter struggle in support of their candidates.

Election cycles

Meanwhile, apprehension, according to findings by Sunday Vanguard, is rooted partly in the experience of previous election cycles, particularly the 2011, 2015 and 2023 presidential elections, when political rhetoric frequently took on ethnic, religious, violent and regional dimensions.

Nigerian election campaigns have also repeatedly been criticised for being driven more by personality attacks, ethnic and religious mobilisation, defections and political calculations than by sustained debates on competing policies and programmes.

For instance, last week’s governorship election in Osun State wasn’t an exception, as no fewer than 40 people were reportedly killed in the pre-election period.

This is why, in various conversations with Sunday Vanguard, key stakeholders in the electoral process, including Civil Society Organisations, CSOs, lawyers and regional groups, among others, cautioned political parties, candidates and their supporters against hate speech, ethnic profiling and violence, urging them to make the 2027 contest a battle of ideas focused on the economy, security, unemployment, education, healthcare and other issues affecting Nigerians.

Social media may be weaponised — Odumakin

Speaking on the matter, President, Centre for Change, Dr Joe Okei Odumakin, said though she remains worried about hate speech, ethnic and religious profiling, her greatest fears are the weaponisation of social media.

She said: “My greatest concern ahead of the 2027 general elections is the possibility of political competition degenerating into hate speech, ethnic and religious profiling, misinformation, character assassination and violence.

“Elections should be a contest of ideas, policies, competence and character, not a war between ethnic or religious groups.

“We must reject narratives portraying any ethnic group or region as an enemy simply because of its political preference.”

She, however, said Nigerians should be allowed to choose their leaders without intimidation or discrimination.

Odumakin said: “Nigeria belongs to all of us, and every citizen must be free to support any candidate or political party without intimidation or discrimination.

“I am particularly worried about the weaponisation of social media, where false information, manipulated videos and inflammatory statements can spread within minutes and create tension in communities.

“Political leaders, their supporters, influencers and the media must, therefore, exercise responsibility. “Candidates should challenge the records and policies of their opponents rather than resort to mudslinging and unsubstantiated allegations.

“Security agencies and relevant institutions must also respond promptly to credible threats and ensure that political actors do not turn their supporters into instruments of violence.

“My message is simple: Campaign vigorously, but campaign responsibly. “Attack policies, not ethnicities, expose wrongdoing, but do not manufacture allegations, mobilise supporters, but never mobilise them for violence.

“Nigerians must remember that political opponents are not enemies.

“After the election, we will still remain neighbours, colleagues, friends and fellow citizens.

“The 2027 elections should therefore be a contest of ideas and leadership, not hatred, ethnicity or violence.

“Our collective responsibility is to ensure that democracy strengthens national unity rather than becomes a trigger for division and conflict.”

Ethnic hatred, religion, hate speech, violence our concern — ActionAid

Similarly, Country Director, ActionAid Nigeria, AAN, Dr Andrew Mamedu, expressed worries, saying, most times, politicians leave the main issues that would woo voters for their election to ethnic hatred, religious division, hate speech, violence, among others.

Mamedu said: “My concern is not that Nigerians will disagree politically; that is normal in a democracy.

“My concern is when political competition is deliberately converted into ethnic hatred, religious division, hate speech, misinformation and violence.

“Nigeria has already paid too high a price for politics that tells citizens they should fear one another because of where they come from, their faith, or the candidate they support.

“As we move toward 2027, political actors must understand the line between robust political debate and language that puts people’s lives at risk.

“The Electoral Act 2026 is clear: Campaigns should not use abusive language capable of injuring ethnic, religious, tribal, or sectional feelings, or language likely to provoke violent reactions.

“So this is not merely about political morality; it is also about respecting the law.”

Speaking on the use of social media during the campaigns, the AAN boss said: “I am particularly concerned about the combination of inflammatory rhetoric and social media.

“A false story, an ethnic slur or a manipulated video can travel across the country in minutes and create consequences in communities that the person who posted it may never see.

“Political leaders, therefore, have a responsibility to control not only what they say themselves, but also what their campaign structures, spokespersons and supporters are encouraged to do.

“We must also reject mudslinging as a substitute for governance. “Nigerians are dealing with hunger, unemployment, insecurity, rising living costs and enormous pressure on their livelihoods.”

He tasked political parties and their candidates to focus on issue-based campaigns, saying, “The 2027 campaign should be a competition of ideas about how we solve those problems, not a competition over who can insult an opponent most effectively.

“INEC itself has called for stronger collaboration with the National Peace Committee and other stakeholders to rebuild trust and safeguard peaceful participation ahead of the elections. “But peace cannot simply be something candidates sign on paper. “Political parties must demonstrate it in their rallies, their messaging and the conduct of their supporters.

“At ActionAid, our position is that no Nigerian should be threatened, profiled, intimidated or denied their democratic voice because of ethnicity, religion, gender, location or political preference.

“Security agencies and electoral institutions must also act early and impartially when threats or incitement emerge.

“Ultimately, I hope 2027 becomes an election where Nigerians ask candidates: What are you going to do about my food, my job, my security, my child’s education, and my future? “If politicians cannot answer those questions, they should not be allowed to hide that failure behind ethnicity, religion or personal attacks.

“Nigeria needs an election that unites citizens around solutions, not one that divides them for votes.”

They’re familiar incidents of our politics — Folarin, Afenifere scribe

For his part, General Secretary of Afenifere, Chief Ademola Folarin, said he has no fears over the 2027 general elections, noting that Nigerians are already used to personal attacks and others.

Folarin said: “I have no fears at all. Nothing new or extraordinary is expected.

“The candidates are the same, the issues are the same, the polity remains unchanged. We’re in a familiar territory.

“Hate speech, ethnic profiling, are familiar incidents of our politics. We can’t fear what we’re already used to. “Will they occur in the electioneering campaigns, yes. Will they have significant or unusual impact, most unlikely.

“The opposition, bereft of alternative ideas, will amplify personal attacks in order to suppress the scorecard of the incumbent. This may vary slightly at the state level.”

They remain effective political instruments — Osuntokun

Chief Akin Osuntokun, erstwhile Political Adviser to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, said hate speech, ethnic and religious profiling remain effective political instruments.

Osuntokun said: “Well, all the negative anticipation, including hate speech, ethnic profiling, violence and mudslinging, come with the territory. “Unfortunately, there will always be the presence of those factors because they are effective political instruments. What we should hope and pray for is that they will be the exception and not the rule.”

Politicians must eschew hatred — YCE scribe

Also, Yoruba Council of Elders, YCE, said though Nigerians are getting wiser, politicians must desist from campaigns capable of leading to the disintegration of the country.

YCE Secretary, Chief Oluwole Oladipo, said: “Officially, campaigns have been allowed for general elections in Nigeria, coupled with political parties registered by INEC.

“That being so, the players are once more allowed to approach the electorate to make their promises and commitments as they always do.

“Be that as it may, the citizenry is getting wiser and obviously refusing the imposition of leadership on them, particularly as demonstrated by the outcome of the recent governorship election in Osun State, where the masses did their thing the way they wanted.

“Because we are elders, majority of us have seen many cycles come and go.

“We, therefore, implore participants to avoid hate speech and any action that may dismember our great country, Nigeria.

“The 2027 elections should be made to be free, fair and devoid of rigging.

“Politicians should and must be cautious that this country is all that we have to call our own, so her interest must be paramount for the good of all concerned.

“The world is watching us as a people, therefore, we must stand correctly. May Nigeria rise again.”

Campaigns must follow laid down rules — Faro

A human rights lawyer and Principal Counsel, Idris Faro & Co, Idris Faro, called on politicians to play by the laid down rules guiding campaigns ahead of the polls.

“As the campaigns for the 2027 general elections commence, all political actors and their supporters are warned to play by the rules. Election is not a do-or-die affair”, he said.

“Campaigns must be issue-based and not ad hominem. With the number of deaths recorded in the recent Osun State governorship election, party leaders at all levels must warn their members and supporters to eschew violence, ethnic profiling and hate speech.

“Public office is not a path to the inordinate acquisition of wealth. It is for service and service only. This should be part of their guiding philosophy.

“All campaigns and political activities must be in consonance with the rule of law.

“Representative democracy is about respect for the choices of the electorate and the will of the people being the source of political power.

“Security agents must be firm and fair while discharging their duties.

“They must deal decisively with political violence at all times, irrespective of who is involved.

“They are working for the Nigerian people and not just a group, party or individual.

“If we follow the rules, the campaigns and elections will undoubtedly be peaceful, free and fair”.

Politicians won’t change from their past — IPC

The Executive Director, International Press Centre, IPC, Lanre Arogundade, while appreciating the efforts being made to ensure that the campaigns are issue-focused, said: “Credit should go to the National Peace Committee for last Tuesday’s peace signing in Abuja, and committing candidates to issue-focused campaigns as against hate-laced politicking”, Arogundade said.

“The fear, however, is that politicians will always be politicians, and we did witness how a senator called for the killing of opponents during the Osun governorship election, while another federal lawmaker threatened that supporters of a political party should not step out on election day.

“Unfortunately, they seem to have gotten away with the audacious impunity without any consequence whatsoever.

“It will be difficult not to expect a repeat as the general elections’ campaigns take off.

“In the above context, the task of getting politicians to stick to the issues lies with the people, the civil society and the media, especially. “We must be prepared to call out those who violate the letters and spirit of the peace agreement and rigorously campaign that violators be sanctioned.

“The thrust of the messaging should be that mounting the rostrum cannot and should not be a licence to incite.”

Necessary measures need to be put in place to curb violence — Odekhe

Lending his voice, a human rights lawyer, Toluwa Odekhe, said: “As campaigns for the 2027 general elections officially opened on August 19, 2026, the warning signs are already visible, not hypothetical.

“Ethnic weaponisation online is already active, not anticipated. “Analysts tracking social media found posts that explicitly threatened ethnically-targeted violence in Lagos ahead of 2027, referencing a real attack from the 2023 elections.

“That such threats are circulating openly, more than a year before polls, suggests the ‘digital rehearsal of violence’ dynamic researchers warn about is already underway.

“Public figures, not just anonymous accounts, are crossing lines. The National Human Rights Commission’s (NHRC) recent intervention named specific statements by a religious leader (Sheikh Sani Yahaya Jingir) and a sitting senator (Francis Fadahunsi) as having crossed into dangerous territory.

“This is not only an online-fringe problem; it involves people with real platforms and followings.

Genocide

“The NHRC’s historical reference is deliberately stark.

“The Commission invoked the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda as a caution about how sustained dehumanisation and propaganda can escalate, while explicitly clarifying that Nigeria is not Rwanda.

“That a serious rights body is reaching for that comparison is worth taking at face value rather than dismissing as hyperbole.

“Institutional trust deficit compounds the risk.

“INEC Chairman, Prof. Joash Amupitan, has publicly listed hate speech, disinformation, localised violence, vote-buying and foreign interference together as major threats to 2027, meaning the umpire itself is not confident these risks will stay contained.

“Mudslinging can become a laundering mechanism. Personal or ethnic attacks get repackaged as ‘just politics’ or ‘banter,’ which is exactly how dehumanising rhetoric becomes socially normalised until discrimination and violence start to look acceptable, per the NHRC’s warning.

“Encouraging signs exist but are early-stage.

“Presidential and National Assembly candidates signed a National Peace Accord on August 18, 2026, pledging peaceful, issue-based campaigns and rejecting violence, hate speech, misinformation and personal attacks. “The National Broadcasting Commission has also warned broadcasters and online publishers against amplifying divisive content. “These are positive signals, but accords and warnings are commitments, not enforcement.

“These risks should be addressed legally using the existing legal framework.

“Section 97 of the Electoral Act prohibits all forms of sectional campaigning, including on the basis of religion or tribe for the purpose of promoting or opposing a candidate.

“The Cybercrimes Act criminalises racist and xenophobic conduct online, with fines and imprisonment as penalties.

“Police have issued formal warnings that spreading false information or inciting unrest online can trigger prosecution.”

Past campaign patterns expected to replay — Onoja

Expressing his worries, lawyer and public affairs analyst, Patrick Onoja, said: “As campaigns for the 2027 general elections commence, I approach the season with hope, but also with four clear fears.

“These fears are not abstract. They are drawn from what we saw in 2015, 2019, and most recently in 2023. If left unchecked, they can undermine the credibility of the polls and the unity of the country.

“My first fear is that hate speech will become a campaign tool instead of an offence.

“In 2023, weeks to the Lagos governorship election, the hashtag #IgboMustGo trended on X, with threats to specific ethnic groups not to vote.

“In the North, inflammatory sermons and broadcasts in 2019 labelled opponents as ‘enemies of faith.’

“The Centre for Democracy and Development reported that 78% of Nigerians encountered hate speech online during the 2019 election cycle.

“With cheap data and AI, a 30-second video can now reach millions before NBC or security agencies respond.

“My fear is that when we normalise calling our opponents ‘diseases’ or ‘invaders,’ we are preparing the ground for violence.

“My second fear is that 2027 will be fought on the basis of tribe and religion instead of track record and policy.

“The debate around the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 and the ‘it’s our turn’ narratives in Lagos showed how quickly we abandon issues.

“In Plateau and Kaduna, voting patterns have for 20 years split along Jos North/South and Kaduna North/South lines.

Survey

“Afrobarometer’s 2022 survey found that 62% of Nigerians said ethnicity is ‘very important’ in voting, while only 23% prioritise policy.

“If we vote by surname in 2027, we will get a government by sentiment, not by competence. And the losing groups will feel excluded for the next four years.

“My third fear is the return of thuggery and attacks as a campaign strategy.

“INEC documented over 200 cases of attacks on officials and voter intimidation during the 2023 elections.

“In the November 2023 Kogi and Bayelsa polls, there was ballot box snatching in Dekina and the killing of agents in Nembe.

“Human Rights Watch reported that over 800 people died after the 2011 elections.

“With current economic hardship, the temptation to use jobless youths for ₦2,000 to ‘secure’ a polling unit is high. My fear is that violence in just 500 polling units can suppress turnout and change the national outcome.

Fake news

“My fourth fear is that lies will travel faster than truth.

“In 2023, fake INEC result sheets for Kano and Lagos went viral six hours before collation ended.

“A doctored video of a candidate ‘slumping’ got 3 million views.

“NOI Polls in 2022 showed 71% of Nigerians saw fake news about a candidate in 2019, with WhatsApp as the main source.

“With AI, we should expect fake audio, fake medical reports, and deepfakes 48 hours to the election. “Mudslinging will shift debate from ‘what is your plan for power and jobs’ to ‘who is corrupt?’”

However, he called on regulators, including the NBC and security agencies, to sanction hate speech and fake news from day one, not two weeks to the election.

His words: “Media, fact-checkers like Dubawa and CDD, and citizens must adopt ‘verify before you share.’

“The Electoral Act 2022 provides for prosecution of violence and vote-buying. We need convictions, not press releases.

“Voters must demand manifestos and town hall meetings.

“The 2027 elections should be a contest of ideas, not a war of identities.

“If we allow hate speech, profiling, violence and mudslinging to define the campaigns, then regardless of who wins, Nigeria loses.” (Sunday Vanguard)

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