Campaigning kicks off in Nigeria Wednesday, five months ahead of elections set to be dominated by crushing inflation and President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms.

Africa’s most populous country is straining from years of economic turmoil and violence from armed groups — though a divided opposition works in favour of Tinubu, seeking a second term.

“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country, and it continues to affect security and development concerns,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of Nigeria politics newsletter The Bellwether.

Elected in 2023, Tinubu has used his first term to push through ambitious economic reforms, including ending a costly fuel subsidy that for years had indirectly suppressed prices throughout the economy.

Though praised by economists and investors, the reforms have sparked a cost-of-living crisis that saw the value of the naira crumble and inflation spike up to 34 per cent. Headline inflation cooled to 15.4 per cent in July.

A slide into poverty, pre-dating Tinubu, has continued for millions, with more than 60 per cent of Nigerians now living below the poverty line, according to the World Bank, up from 40 per cent in 2019.

The country is also mired in multiple security crises — from jihadists, non-ideological “bandit” gangs, farmers and herders fighting over land, and a simmering separatist conflict.

Violence has been increasing since 2024, said Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at conflict monitor ACLED, “driven by the spread and intensification of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria” and increased conflict in Borno state, the heart of the jihadist insurgency.

Meanwhile, “the opposition has been too mired in internal and legal issues to really articulate a difference” between their policies and Tinubu’s, said Adekaiyaoja.

“The most important issues for me are the economy and cost of living,” said civil servant Afolayan Abdullahi, 42, who said he intended to vote for Tinubu.

2023 Rematch

Tinubu is considered one of Nigeria’s shrewdest politicians and his All Progressives Congress controls the national assembly and 31 of 36 powerful governorships.

The January 16 poll will in part be a rematch of 2023, with Tinubu again running against former southeastern governor Peter Obi, former vice president Atiku Abubakar and others.

Tinubu won that poll with 36.6 per cent of the vote. Abubakar took 29 per cent, and Obi notched 25 per cent.

Rabiu Kwankwaso, who garnered about six per cent last time, has teamed up with Obi to run as his vice president.

“Nigeria is not safe — terrorists, kidnappers, bandits everywhere,” said Becky Alegbe, a street vendor in Abuja.

The 28-year-old is registered to vote in her home village in Edo state, but “for me to take the risk to travel… I will not take that,” she said, also citing quintupled transportation costs and concerns about vote buying that have tainted prior elections.

Turnout was just 27 per cent in 2023.

Tinubu, Obi, Sowore, Others Sign Peace Accord

The campaigns come after President Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Obi; his African Action Congress (AAC) counterpart, Omoyele Sowore; and the presidential candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Donald Duke, among others, signed the National Peace Accord on Tuesday.

The event, which took place at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja, attracted representatives of other presidential candidates, contestants for the governorship and National Assembly posts; the National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Joash Amupitan; the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume; chairmen of political parties; and other top political leaders across the country.

Organised by the National Peace Committee (NPC), the event is the first part of the exercise. The second phase will take place after the 2027 polls.

Before the commencement of the gathering, which served as a framework for peaceful political engagement in the lead-up to the January and February polls, Obi called for a credible exercise.

Obi Seeks Credible, Violence-Free Polls

The former Anambra State governor said, “I don’t have any fear [going into next year’s election] except to say that, please, for the sake of the children of Nigeria, can we have an election where people’s votes will count?”

To ensure a peaceful exercise, the NDC presidential candidate asked Nigerians not to cast their ballots for anyone or any party that violates the tenets of the accord.

“Well, the punishment is that Nigerians should not vote for them,” he said when asked what the punishment should be for those who violate the agreement.

He asked contestants to “be exemplary” in their conduct as the general elections inch closer.

“You can’t answer ‘His Excellency’ without being an excellent person,” Obi, 65, said. “So, the process that will make you answer ‘His Excellency’ should be excellent, and the only way to do it is to conduct yourself properly.”

President Bola Tinubu, who was represented at the signing of the peace accord by Akume, praised the NPC leadership—including a former Head of State, Abdulsalami Abubakar; the Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar; and Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah—for sustaining the initiative since 2014.

He noted that technological improvements such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) have eliminated ballot stuffing and restored power to voters, citing the off-cycle elections in Anambra, Osun and Ekiti as proof of growing transparency in Nigeria’s electoral process.

“Different parties won them, and local and foreign observers described them as free, credible, and transparent. When the process and outcome are manifestly transparent, we see less post-election litigation in our courts,” he said, adding that “politicians are now more accountable to the people because votes count.” (Channels)

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