By GOOD GOVERNANCE GROUP (GGG)

BACKGROUND

Following our write up three days ago titled “A Very Objective Suggested Roadmap For The G-100 and Nigerian Opposition Parties on The 2027 National Elections” we now want to zero in on what many perceive as what has been the major obstacle to Opposition Unity and how it could be overcome even if it means not having a 100% opposition unity which is not even necessary in the first instance, as there will always be fringe candidates, as is the case all over the world. For instance, in Nigeria we will always have Opposition Presidential candidates such as Sowore, and that’s the beauty of democracy.

Most independent observers are of the view that the major obstacle to Opposition Unity so far is the inability of the leading opposition presidential candidate from Northern Nigeria, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and the leading opposition presidential candidate from Southern Nigeria, Mr. Peter Obi, to agree on who between them should become the Opposition Consensus Presidential Candidate.

The key reason for the GGG adjudging them the leading candidates is based on the fact that they scored the highest number of votes in the 2023 Presidential Election according to INEC results.

The major objective of this brief is to provide the G-100 and the Opposition Parties with 3 key verifiable facts that will greatly assist them in identifying and backing a consensus candidate that has the best chance of winning the 2027 Presidential Election, Rigging or No Rigging.

THE FACTS

(1) NORTH - SOUTH ROTATION OF THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT IN NIGERIA:

Although not stated in the Nigerian Constitution, the political class and majority of Nigerian citizens have generally accepted the principle of rotating the office of the President between Southern and Northern Nigeria every 8 years since the return of civilian rule in 1999, the only exception being the unfortunate death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in office during his first term which resulted in his deputy, President Jonathan, a Southerner, completing what would have been an 8 year turn for Northern Nigeria.

Nigerians by the voting results in the last Presidential election have shown their continued support for the continued rotation of the office of the President between Southern and Northern Nigeria:

Southern Presidential Candidates (Tinubu/Obi) - 14.89 million votes (62.01% of Total Votes)

Northern Presidential Candidates (Abubakar/Kwankwaso - 8.47 million votes (35.3% of Total Votes)

The Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum (SMBLF) have reaffirmed their support for the office of the President of Nigeria to remain in Southern Nigeria until 2031, and this is reflected at the grassroots in the entire Southern Nigeria where the overwhelming sentiment is in tandem with the SMBLF declaration.

The current rotation principle of 8 years between Northern and Southern Nigeria for the office of the President definitely favors Peter Obi as the leading Southern Candidate in the Opposition.

(2) TRIBAL FACTOR IN NIGERIAN POLITICS:

“I am supporting Tinubu for second term because he is Yoruba and from the South West. I will work for him in 2027.” — Senator Ademola Adeleke, Governor of Osun State, speaking on Channel TV Sunday Politics during an interview with Seun Okinbaloye, after his reelection on Saturday.

This statement is very ironic considering that Osun State is one of the few States in Southern Nigeria that Atiku Abubakar, a Fulani, won in 2023 in a contest against the ruling party candidate, Bola Tinubu, who is Yoruba, and that was largely due Senator Adeleke who was in PDP, same party as Atiku. It just shows how the current leadership of the Federal Government has further polarized Nigeria.

Tribe has always been a negative factor in Nigerian politics which many patriots have been trying over the years to become a positive factor by trying to build a nation where though tribe and tongue may differ, the spirit of brotherhood is promoted. This is even the genesis of rotation whose major objective is to promote a sense of belonging amongst the different tribes in Nigeria.

On the matter of promoting a sense of belonging in Nigeria, the 2027 Presidential Election favors Peter Obi, who is Igbo, and from the South East. Since the return of civilian rule in 1999, the Fulanis have occupied the office of President of Nigeria for 11 years, and the Yorubas for 11 years, and other groups for 5 years. Hausas and Igbos - 0 years.

Atiku, if he chooses to be a statesman and decides to support Obi/Kwankwaso, will greatly help in bringing the different tribes together to focus on bad governance instead of tribal politics, but if he insists on running, tribal politics will unfortunately become a major factor in the 2027 Presidential Election and the demographics is not in his favor.

Contrary to what some political pundits say about Atiku winning overwhelmingly in Northern Nigeria in 2027, the facts are different.

In the first instance, he lost the North Central (Middle Belt States) in 2023, and the States he won in the North West and North East in 2023, was largely a result of the PDP structures which have now moved over to APC.

If Atiku insists on running in 2027, he will be running as a candidate of the Fulanis and not Hausa/Fulani, and the tribal configuration of the 3 major Presidential Candidates will be as follows:

Tinubu/Shettima - YORUBA/KANURI

Atiku/Amaechi - FULANI/IKWERRE

Obi/Kwankwaso - IGBO/HAUSA

Current demographics of Nigeria according to Wikipedia:

• Hausa: 25% – 30%

• Yoruba: 15.5% – 21%

• Igbo: 15.2% – 18%

• Fulani: 3% – 6%

• Other groups: 25% – 35% (Kanuri: 2.4% - 4%; Ikwerre: 0.7%)

Even though Obi as he has stated severally that he is not running for office as a tribal champion, the tribal demographics is in his favor in a free, fair and transparent election in 2027, where the Other tribes, urban poor, and most youths from all tribes are supportive of his candidacy.

(3) LEADERSHIP PHILOSOPHY:

The leadership philosophy of Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi can be summarized as follows:

Tinubu - Business First, People Second.

Atiku - Business First, People Second.

Obi - People First, Business Second.

For those who may not be familiar with our summary we are simply saying that Tinubu and Atiku are more associated with empowering businesses to grow and in the process,benefits will trickle down to the people, (Trickle down economics), while Obi is associated with empowering people first and in the process enhance their purchasing power which in turn will help businesses to grow more sustainably.

That is the major reason why Obi has a cult like following amongst the poor masses in urban Nigeria and the youth.

In an election which will largely be decided by voters voting on whether their lives are better off in 2027 than in 2023, and with more Nigerians falling into poverty, than climbing out of poverty, this will favor a candidate who is perceived as being more PRO PEOPLE, than PRO BUSINESS, and that candidate is definitely Peter Obi who is seen by majority of Nigerians as being very pro-people and empathetic to the suffering masses.

CONCLUSION

In our submission, we have tried to set aside the important factors of CHARACTER, COMPETENCE, CAPACITY as it might be deemed subjective but we believe that most educated Nigerians know who they prefer between Atiku and Obi based on the 3 Cs.

On the 3 major factors of Rotation, Tribe, and Leadership philosophy, we have stated the Facts and our interpretation of the Facts as objectively as possible and they are in favor of Obi becoming the consensus candidate of the Opposition.

Of course, we know that some Nigerians are not swayed by facts or logic, but are always stuck in their tribal and religious cocoons. Luckily for Nigeria they are in the minority, but unfortunately they sometimes get their way when the majority are indifferent or allow themselves to be manipulated and intimidated.

We only hope that Atiku does what is right for Nigeria and the Opposition by supporting the Obi/Kwankwaso ticket. If that happens, Obi/Kwankwaso will win on the first ballot in 2027. Failing which the most likely result in a Free, Fair, Transparent Election will be Obi/Kwankwaso - 1st; Tinubu/Shettima - 2nd; Atiku/Amaechi - 3rd, but there will be the possibility of a run-off election to determine the winner.

Supporters of the Opposition should never be discouraged if Atiku insists on running in 2027, but should focus on organizing and rallying round the Obi/Kwankwaso Candidacy which has the most backing from majority of Nigerians from the North and the South.

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