In October 2002, when it became obvious that then Vice President Atiku Abubakar was moving towards running against his principal, President Olusegun Obasanjo for the People Democratic Party (PDP) ticket, I wrote a column titled, ‘Before Atiku Takes a Dangerous Gamble’. It was both a warning and a counsel that has turned out to be prescient. For the past two decades, at every election season, Atiku has had to confront the ‘Obasanjo Factor’ in his presidential bid. At a recent public event in Lagos, the former president was asked about his greatest mistake in office. He replied that choosing Atiku as his running mate in 1999 was his most regrettable decision.

Not surprisingly, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate has responded by reminding the public that he (Atiku) supported Obasanjo financially after his release from prison in 1998. “When he eventually regained his freedom, he had little to his name. I received him, clothed him, ensured he was properly cared for and extended every support necessary for him to regain his footing,” Atiku stated while claiming that the campaign of calumny was because he thwarted Obasanjo’s ‘Third Term’ agenda.

Since data from the United Nations Population Fund reveals that between 60 to 63 percent of our population is under the age of 25, it means that most of our citizens were not even born during one of the most consequential political feuds in recent Nigerian history. So, before I conclude, I want to take the readers down memory lane by recalling excerpts from that column of 24 years ago against the background of the never-ending spat between the two old men.

…From all available reports, Atiku is either contemplating the idea of challenging Obasanjo for the ruling PDP presidential ticket or he is being goaded into doing so by some political do-gooders. While there is no crime in a politician nursing an ambition, Atiku versus Obasanjo as a presidential contest is not going to be a tea party. It will be messy, dirty and at the end, nobody is going to win. That is why we must intervene before it happens.

Assuming Atiku throws his hat into the ring, then we will have on our hands a presidential aspirant who is not in the race because he has a better vision of Nigeria but rather someone who is running out of grudge, essentially to prove a point to some ‘enforcers’ who imagine that only them know how to plot other peoples’ political downfall. Only a few weeks ago, this same Atiku gleefully told the nation that if he were to choose between being President of Nigeria and being VP under Obasanjo, he would choose the latter. If he now joins the presidential race, it would mean he was either telling a monumental lie then, (in which case we may find it difficult to ever trust him) or he no longer believes in what he said at the period, hence people will still ask: what has changed? We will come to this later.

Anybody with an understanding of what is going on in Abuja cannot but see how the power struggle between Atiku and Works and Housing Minister, Chief Tony Anenih, has put Obasanjo in a sort of quandary. Now, Atiku is in a situation in which he is being blamed for the problem the President invited upon himself by his disregard for the National Assembly until the lawmakers decided to fight back. Whatever his misgivings, however, I believe Atiku should count the cost of what could become the first in history of such a political misadventure.

Since we always cite the United States as example in matters like this, and given that our democracy—even though a caricature of the real thing—is patterned after theirs, I have done extensive research to ascertain whether in their history, a sitting Vice President ever challenged his boss for the presidential ticket of their party. I did not find any. And to be doubly sure, on Monday, I sought the assistance of the Public Affairs Department of the United States Information Service (USIS) and their two-day research also did not throw up any such example. I must express my appreciation to Mr Femi Omowunmi who, despite his tight schedules, took time out to help me. The closest we have to this kind of situation is France where Prime Ministers often run against their Presidents and we all know the system is completely different and, in any case, the two office holders in that country are usually from opposing political parties.

But all these are even immaterial. Given our environment, a confrontation between Obasanjo and Atiku will throw up a lot of ethno-religious issues which may tear apart the fabric of the nation, especially at this point. Already, we see a lot of desperation from Obasanjo and we know how dangerous a desperate man could become. In his most recent syndicated interview in six Sunday newspapers, the President read from the portion of a document where he alleged that in February 1999 some Northern leaders wanted him to sign that he would protect ‘Northern interest’ with some specific ‘juicy’ Ministries like Petroleum and Defence reserved for people from the region. He said the document intended making a figurehead of him and anybody who signed was doomed because the real power wielder would be the Vice President. I don’t know why the President had to personally read a document that ought to have been leaked without any trace to him assuming he was well advised. But not only did Obasanjo read extracts from the said document, he did it in a manner that suggests the whole “interview session” was arranged just for him to publicize “the Northern Agenda for power” in 1999.

Meanwhile, it would be easy for someone to conclude that the President was whipping up ethnic sentiment yet I don’t think that is the case even when that is the impression created. I recall vividly that during my Easter Monday breakfast meeting with him last year (16 April 2001), Obasanjo said some Yoruba elders also met him and were asking for his ‘ Yoruba agenda’ and he told them he did not know of any Yoruba agenda but rather Nigerian agenda. And I could see how angry he was by such a parochial idea even when I was not a member of the team that visited him. The same man is now being projected by the Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC), an organisation which he had actually pronounced banned, as their man whose “hair must not be touched” as if Ghali Na’Abba is interested in the hair on Obasanjo’s head!

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Of course, I know it could be annoying the way some northern leaders are carrying on about a nebulous agreement they allegedly made Obasanjo sign which we now know to be untrue. But it will nonetheless be sad if the president allows the political pressure of the moment to push him into becoming a Yoruba candidate. That will be the real tragedy. But in all these, I sympathize with Atiku. Anybody who has been deputy anything will understand what I am talking about. I was a deputy editor before at THISDAY and a few people in the newsroom treated me with suspicion because I was seen as ‘too ambitious’. The belief was that I was hungry to be elevated hence my editor should be careful lest I tripped him. But Eni-B (Eniola Bello) knew there was no banana peel under his table (apology to Dr. Chuba Okadigbo) so he trusted me and I gave him my loyalty.

In retrospect, assuming Eni-B believed the rumour mongers and had tried to undermine me, I doubt if I would have remained loyal to him. That, I guess, is what happened to Atiku but I still believe all the problems can be sorted out. Afterall, we have seen a situation in which politicians fight bitter primaries only to end up running on the same ticket. It happened with President Ronald Reagan and Mr. George Bush. The latter ended up being the VP for eight years before he secured his own turn. And here in Nigeria, the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola and Ambassador Baba Gana Kingibe fought the Social Democratic Party (SDP) primaries in 1993 before running together. All these go to show that Obasanjo and Atiku can still iron out their differences to move forward if they are both prepared to be honest and open towards each other.

But no matter the problem between them today, Atiku should also not forget that he was picked as running mate by Obasanjo in 1999 against the run of play. Yet today, he has become the most powerful number two man since the late Tunde Idiagbon because Obasanjo gave him so much latitude to run the show on the economic front. We all remember that in 1999, Obasanjo stuck by Atiku even at the risk of losing the support of prominent Northerners who felt dissatisfied with the choice. At that period, the Big Boys were Professor Jubril Aminu, Alhaji Adamu Ciroma, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur and Alhaji Abubakar Rimi. Today, I know many people whose only grouse with Obasanjo is the privatisation of public enterprises which is Atiku’s forte. Not a few would swear that the billboards dotting the landscape which proclaim that “when the nation privatizes, the people benefit” should actually read, “when the nation privatizes, Atiku benefits”. The Vice President is himself aware of this negative perception about him which he has denied several times.

I have serious disagreements with Obasanjo’s methods, especially regarding the way he has put himself in the hands of a notorious political undertaker, his disposition towards National Assembly and his seeming contempt for public opinion. But the ball is now in his court. He has to show that he can forgive and forget. Again, the President should be firm with his Ministers, however important some of them may consider themselves to be in their own eyes. They should respect the Vice President as their boss. All of them! If anyone advises the president to use Atiku and dump him later, I bet that we may just have seen the end of a battle and perhaps the beginning of the war. A very dangerous war. In the interest of peace, the two of them should settle whatever may be the problem between them. And if they don’t have any, they should call their aides to order.

Enough is enough!

ENDNOTE: I wrote the foregoing in October 2002. Three months later, precisely on 4 January 2003, Atiku threw a bombshell at the PDP national convention in Abuja. Just as the voting was about to start, an interview he granted to BBC Hausa Service was aired, saying he was still considering his options. And they were three: One, to run for the PDP presidential ticket; two, to team up with the Second Republic Vice President Alex Ekwueme (now of blessed memory) and three, maintain the status quo by aligning with Obasanjo. He eventually settled for the last option but by then the damage was done. What that says clearly is that the problem between Obasanjo and Atiku did not emanate from ‘Third Term’, it was about Second Term with all the ‘Mandela Option’ machinations at the time.

Indeed, following the open declaration of war between Obasanjo and his VP in 2006, Simon Kolawole and I had a memorable encounter with Atiku that I will include in my memoir should I ever write one. Most unfortunate is that we may never know the real cost of that fight between a president and his deputy to Nigeria at a period we had a divided government. In his controversial three-part memoir, ‘My Watch’, Obasanjo said because he “could not succumb to the distraction, diversion and malevolence of an ambitious but unwise deputy,” he had to plant moles in Atiku’s office for most of the time they spent together in government. And it is obvious both are still very suspicious of each other.

If there is anything I have learnt about power politics in Nigeria, it is that forgiveness is a rare commodity. Our politicians preserve grievances and often turn personal conflicts into public issues. Some animosities even date as far back as the First Republic. The central themes are always betrayal and gratitude, loyalty and its absence. Obasanjo is 89, and Atiku will turn 80 this November. If ever there was a time for these two elder statesmen to reconcile and resolve a dispute older than most Nigerians, it is now. But whatever may have transpired between them during their time in office, and however they interpret that history, it remains a personal matter and should not become a national issue, especially in the 2027 general election campaigns.

When old personal animosities overshadow political discourse, debate about policies and national priorities is pushed aside. If personal disputes dictate alliances and split institutions, they risk weakening the foundation of democracy and stalling progress for those who deserve leaders focused on the public good. Therefore, a longstanding personal grudge should not prevent any candidate from presenting his case to voters. If Atiku has earned a sixth chance to seek the presidency, the 2027 election should be decided by voters assessing his record and vision for Nigeria. Not by the judgment of his former principal about decisions made two decades ago.

For younger Nigerians, there are also lessons to learn. Understanding the roots and recurrence of such rivalries offers them an opportunity to ask how they might encourage more transparent, issue-based politics, and how they themselves can break this vicious cycle by refusing to allow age-old personal grudges to dictate their future.

• You can follow me on my X (formerly Twitter) handle, @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com

(This Day)

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