As preparations gather momentum for the 2026 governorship election in Osun State, attention is gradually shifting to the state, which will host the final off-cycle governorship poll before the 2027 general elections, following the successful conduct of the Ekiti governorship election on June 20.

The people of Osun State will on Saturday determine their fate among 14 candidates vying for the chance to occupy the Bola Ige House in Abeere and make decisions on their behalf until 2030. Of all the 14 candidates, the incumbent governor and candidate of Accord Party, Ademola Adeleke; APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji; and Najeem Salam of the ADC stand out as the three major contenders.

While not all of the state’s population is eligible to make this critical decision together on Saturday, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recently disclosed that over 2.3 million people are registered to participate in the election.

As political parties intensify their campaigns to woo voters ahead of Saturday’s election, the transparency of the electoral umpire and security agencies is a major factor capable of affecting the credibility of the whole process.

But should INEC and the security agencies uphold professionalism and maintain neutrality in discharging their duties as constitutionally empowered, Tribune Online takes a look at some of the other factors that may determine the outcome of the governorship election.

PDP/Accord alliance

The incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, who is currently seeking re-election on the platform of the Accord Party, was elected as the second Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governor in the South-West in 2022.

However, unresolved pre-election matters contributed to the major opposition party’s loss in the 2023 presidential election. As internal wranglings at the national level continued to fester after the election and into another election cycle, no fewer than 10 governors elected on the platform of the PDP left the party, including Governor Adeleke.

Arguably, the majority of the Accord Party members in Osun State today were in the PDP before the governor’s defection alongside a senator, six House of Representatives members, and members of the House of Assembly.

Therefore, with the crisis invested PDP absent on the ballot, many believe that the governor was able to collapse the party’s local structure in the state into the Accord Party and expected to translate to an advantage at the poll

However, recent endorsement of the APC candidate, Oyebamiji, by former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, among other top PDP chieftains who supported Adeleke in 2022, may also impact the governor’s chances at the poll.

Dancing Governor’s popularity and Davido’s influence

While the Adeleke family is a popular name in Osun State and Nigeria, the ‘dancing’ adjective attached to Ademola Adeleke’s political identity has further amplified his popularity nationwide, from his days as a senator to his emergence as governor in 2022.

The governor could also benefit from the influence of his nephew, Afrobeats star David Adeleke, popularly known as Davido. With one of Nigeria’s biggest social media followings and a substantial youth audience, Davido’s active participation in his uncle’s campaign again in 2026 could help boost the governor’s visibility and mobilise young voters, who constitute a significant part of the electorate.

However, the National Chairman of the APC, Nentawe Yilwatda, in a recent interview on Channels TV’s Politics Today, dismissed Adeleke’s popularity as capable of securing him electoral victory.

Aregbesola and Oyetola as ‘godfathers’

During the 2022 election, the crisis in the APC was a big boost for Adeleke, especially with notable members of the then camp of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, The Osun Progressives (TOP), choosing him over Adegboyega Oyetola of the APC. However, it’s a different battle this time.

Oyetola is no longer contesting as a candidate, while Aregbesola’s days of being an outcast in the APC came to an end some months ago. Both are however heavily featuring in the race through their anointed first-timer candidates whose chances may not be largely determined by their own individual antecedents or amazing party manifesto but rather by association with their political principals.

Aregbesola’s records hunting for votes

The defunct TOP is now a stand-alone platform in the race to Bola Ige House, after moving into the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

While Rt. Hon. Najeem Folasayo Salam—a former speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly—is the big name flying the ADC flag, his chances at the poll might be determined by gains and issues that characterised the eight years of his political principal, Aregbesola, most especially his ‘Ona Baba Ona’ infrastructure stride, school reclassification and single uniform policy and also ‘half salary’ relationship with civil servants.

Oyetola and ‘Half Salary’ saga

Osun still remains a civil service state. While ‘half salary,’ dubbed as ‘Afusah,’ was an unwanted child born to Aregbesola during his years as governor, his successor, Oyetola, managed to escape being the victim of workers’ fury against the policy through a controversial ‘inconclusive’ election in 2018.

Notably, many workers after Oyetola’s emergence in 2018 expected him to carry the cross of the policy and clear the outstanding months of half salaries, especially due to his role as Chief of Staff to Aregbesola for eight years.

While seeking re-election debate in 2022, reports have it that Oyetola, during an election debate organised by the BBC, openly dismissed Adeleke’s promise of paying workers’ outstanding half salaries. This, many believe, contributed to his failure at the poll.

Though not in the race for the 2026 election, many people consider Oyetola as the political father who may possess some level of influence on the current APC candidate, Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji. Therefore, the performance record of the current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy as a one-term governor in the state might affect the chances of his former Finance Commissioner and now APC candidate.

Federal ‘might’ and Oyetola in Osun APC

Osun is currently on the opposing side of the ruling party at the centre. Though the APC currently boasts of 31 out of 36 elected governors in Nigeria, the ruling party seems poised to add one more to the fold ahead of the 2027 election and may deploy all the resources at its disposal for Saturday’s election.

Meanwhile, before his eventual defection to the Accord Party, a Sunday Tribune report revealed how Adeleke’s planned defection to the APC was frustrated by the Oyetola camp.

Also, in a viral video after the controversial APC governorship primary, Akin Ogunbiyi, an aspirant, disclosed how President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, during a reconciliatory meeting in Abuja, expressed his willingness to welcome Adeleke into the APC but for Oyetola’s alleged objection.

However, despite his unsuccessful defection to the APC, reports have it that Governor Adeleke, on multiple occasions, endorsed the re-election of President Tinubu ahead of 2027.

Likewise, Tribune Online recently reported that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) froze the state government’s account just 10 days before the poll. In a surprising twist, President Tinubu ordered the anti-graft agency to unfreeze the account.

Should these recent developments hold political significance, there are indications that the federal government may ditch political pressure for a neutral position, which would no doubt impact the possibility of a free and fair election in the state.

Additionally, though there have been several reconciliation efforts within the APC, which suggest that all may not be lost following Oyebamiji’s emergence as the standard-bearer, the ‘haunting’ 2026 disqualification of aspirants such as the party’s 2018 ‘saviour’—Iyiola Omisore— remains a tactical political game that the APC, as a party, cannot fully claim to have won until the results from the Ife zone come in its favour.

Adeleke’s projects and the narratives

Governor Adeleke’s performance, especially in infrastructure projects, is expected to sway many ordinary voters with no political affiliation to his side at the poll on Saturday.

While some voices within the opposition in the state have acknowledged his strides in infrastructure, political critics also raised concerns during his early months in office over the concentration of projects in his hometown, Ede, and subsequently attributed his success in roads and bridges across the state to the significant increase in allocations coming to the state from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

Not only this, lately, one of the topical issues in the political discourse in the state has been the quality of roads and bridges being constructed by the governor. However, no regulatory or statutory body, such as COREN or the Federal Ministry of Works, has given any appraisal of the projects so far.

While Governor Adeleke banks on his performance in infrastructure, the opposition, especially the APC, expects the narrative around alleged substandard projects, including a newspaper front-page advertorial, to sway voters to its side.

Osun West and the Osogbo Agenda

Though Osun State has no formal or legal backing for rotational governorship among the three senatorial districts, the arrangement is instead based on informal political lobbying, party strategies, and shifting alliances.

This is evidenced in how Osun Central has dominated the seat of power in the state for over 15 years by three different governors since the beginning of Nigeria’s fourth republic in 1999.

While the first civilian governor of the state, Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke, came from Osun West and spent just two years (from January 2, 1992, to November 1993), the incumbent governor is the first from the zone since 1999.

Notably, the three major contenders in the Osun State election are from Osun West. But while Adeleke is seeking re-election to complete a two-term tenure of eight years, the two other top candidates are seeking to start afresh.

This factor is also expected to influence the choices of many voters, especially in places like Osogbo and Ife, who are also eyeing the seat for the first time despite being major voting blocs in the state.

Importantly, Osogbo, as the state capital, has not produced an elected governor since the creation of the state. Should this agenda be of any political significance, many voters in the capital city may choose a candidate with only four years left, constitutionally.

“The future of Osogbo’s governorship agenda is in God’s hands; mine is to ensure that the APC wins the coming election,” the APC National Secretary, Ajibola Basiru, was quoted as saying during a campaign visit to the palace of the Ataoja of Osogbo.

Though this statement is undoubtedly that of a loyal party man expected of someone as Senator Basiru’s party ranking, the timing and place he made the comment show the Osogbo agenda is not off the table and may impact the choices at the poll.

Workers’ welfare in the mix

This could be one of the governor’s strongest electoral assets. Adeleke has made the prompt payment of salaries and pensions a central part of his administration’s record. In his May 1, 2026, Workers’ Day address, the governor revealed that his administration had cleared more than N50 billion in pension arrears and other inherited obligations, implemented the N75,554.28 minimum wage, and continued to pay workers regularly.

As a civil service state, Osun’s workforce, both active and retired, is a significant and influential constituency when it comes to elections in the state.

According to reports, labour leaders in the state explicitly endorsed Adeleke for re-election for a second term in office. The organised labour cited regular salary and pension payments, as well as the governor’s consistent efforts to clear the 30-month backlog of half salaries owed by previous APC administrations.

Vote-buying & Violence in the calculus

Vote-buying is still a major challenge in Nigerian elections, especially with happenings at the recent Ekiti State gubernatorial elections still close to the memories. Reports have it that parties deployed strategies, including cash, to induce voters.

Meanwhile, voter inducement is expected to play a part in how people of Osun state make decisions on Saturday unless the anti-graft agency steps up its game, not just on election day but in the critical hours leading up to D-Day.

Aside from the impact of Osogbo, Ede South, Irepodun (Ilobu), Ilesa West and East among other 13 local government areas listed by CSOs as high-risk zones for election-day violence on the overall outcome of the poll, the series of political violence and killings the state has witnessed since the electioneering processes kicked off is capable of creating fears in the minds of people, thereby affecting the turnout of voters on Saturday. (Nigerian Tribune)

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