The European Union (EU) has ruled out deploying a full election observation mission to Nigeria for the 2027 general elections, citing the deteriorating security situation and what it described as the hostile treatment of its observers and officials following the 2023 elections.

The decision ends a run of full-scale EU election observation missions to Nigeria spanning more than two decades.

The EU conveyed its decision in response to a letter from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), inviting the bloc to observe the 2027 polls.

In the correspondence, the EU cited two reasons for its decision: the worsening security situation across the country and the hostile treatment of its observers and officials after the publication of its final report on the 2023 general election.

Rather than the substantial deployment mounted in previous election cycles, the EU said it would station only a small number of officials in Abuja to monitor developments and report back to Brussels.

Sources familiar with the correspondence put the number at about three.

There would be no long-term observers deployed to the states, no short-term observers on election day and no chief observer of the kind the bloc appointed for previous Nigerian elections.

INEC had written to the EU requesting observers for the 2027 exercise. The commission has issued similar invitations ahead of every general election since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

The EU observed Nigerian elections in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023. The 2023 deployment was described by its chief observer, Irish member of the European Parliament Barry Andrews, as the seventh such mission since 1999.

For the 2023 election, a core team of 11 experts arrived in Abuja on January 11, six weeks before the presidential poll. Forty long-term observers were subsequently deployed across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Short-term observers joined the mission shortly before election day, bringing the total number of accredited observers to 110 from 25 EU member states, as well as Norway, Switzerland and Canada.

A delegation of the European Parliament also joined the mission for the presidential and National Assembly elections. The team remained in the country until April 11, weeks after the February 25 presidential and March 18 governorship elections.

The mission presented its final report in Abuja in June 2023.

The report was contentious, containing 25 recommendations across six priority areas. It identified what it described as enduring systemic weaknesses and said shortcomings in electoral law and administration had hindered the conduct of well-run and inclusive elections and damaged public trust in INEC.

The findings triggered protests at the EU delegation’s office in Abuja, with organisers accusing the bloc of interfering in Nigeria’s internal affairs and demanding withdrawal of the report.

Opposition figures and civil society groups alleged at the time that supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) sponsored the protests. The allegation was denied.

The EU’s decision comes against the backdrop of sustained violence in parts of the North West and North East, the Middle Belt and the South East, where sit-at-home enforcement and attacks on electoral facilities disrupted the 2023 elections in several states.

Election observation missions require observers to travel to polling units in rural and remote areas, often with limited security support, making large-scale deployment increasingly difficult.

The decision is also expected to have implications for international scrutiny of the 2027 elections, given the scale and duration of previous EU missions.

The National Democratic Institute, International Republican Institute, Commonwealth and African Union have also observed previous Nigerian elections, but none has matched the EU’s scale and duration of presence, according to stakeholders.

The EU had committed €39 million in 2022 under the second phase of its Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria programme, covering the 2022-2027 electoral cycle.

A further €13 million was committed specifically for technical support to INEC ahead of the 2023 elections. The EU correspondence does not state whether its decision on election observation would affect those funding arrangements.

The development could also affect perceptions of the credibility of the 2027 elections, coming amid concerns over declining public confidence and voter participation.

Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election was about 27 per cent, the lowest recorded since the return to democracy in 1999.

Stakeholders have argued that the presence of credible international observers provides an additional layer of scrutiny at polling units and helps strengthen confidence in the electoral process.

The 2027 general election is scheduled for February, with INEC already undertaking preparations, including continuous voter registration and a review of polling unit distribution.

Chief Press Secretary to the INEC Chairman, Oketola Oriye, declined to comment when contacted by Daily Sun on the development. In a telephone interview, he said information available to him was at variance with the claims.

Similarly, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kemiebi Ebiemfa, declined comment. Messages sent to her active phone line were delivered but unanswered.

As of the time of filing this report, the phone line was unavailable. (Text, excluding headline: The Sun)

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