Erstwhile National President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce Industry Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Dele Oye, yesterday argued that Nigeria must maintain policy consistency, deepen market liquidity and strengthen investor confidence to sustain its position as the world’s best-performing stock market.

History

After recording a 228 per cent growth in three years, the Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), said the impressive rise of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), which saw market capitalisation increase from about N30 trillion in 2023 to N158.3 trillion, represents a significant shift in investor perception of Nigeria’s economy.

He, however, stressed that sustaining the momentum would require continued economic reforms, improved corporate governance, stronger institutional participation and policies that support long-term investment.

“Three years ago, if you had told a seasoned investment banker that Nigeria’s stock market would become the world’s best-performing equity market, outpacing the United States, Europe, and even Asia—they would have laughed you out of the room. Nigeria was a frontier market, code for ‘risky, illiquid, and best avoided.’

“The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) was where capital went to take a nap, not to multiply. Today, that same banker would be scrambling to explain why they missed it. As of August 6, 2026, the NGX All-Share Index stands at 245,209 points, having surged from approximately 74,800 points at the end of 2023, a staggering 228 per cent gain in less than three years.

“Market capitalisation has exploded from N30 trillion in 2023 to N158.3 trillion today (approximately $116 billion). In dollar terms, the NGX has delivered 67 per cent returns year-to-date in 2026 alone, making it the world’s best-performing equity market among 92 global indices tracked by Bloomberg, overtaking South Korea’s KOSPI and leaving the S&P 500 in the dust. This is not a typo. This is not a bubble. This is what happens when a government actually reforms its economy.”

“When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office in May 2023, Nigeria was in crisis. The naira was collapsing. Inflation was soaring. Foreign investors had written Nigeria off. The stock market reflected this despair: it was a place to lose money slowly, not to build wealth. Then something remarkable happened: the administration did what few governments do, it made the hard choices,” he added.

Oye pointed out that although the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rate windows were politically explosive, causing immediate pain, and inflation spiking to a 24-month high of 34.8 per cent in December 2024, things have begun to improve.

“Ordinary Nigerians suffered. But here is the crucial point: the government stayed the course. It did not reverse course. It did not panic. It did not blame external factors and give up. By November 2025, inflation had decelerated to 14.45 per cent, with projections of 12 per cent by end-2026 and potentially below 10 per cent by year-end.

“The naira, after initial volatility, has appreciated approximately 4 per cent against the USD in 2026. Foreign reserves have crossed $45 billion, with the Central Bank projecting $50 billion by Q1 2026. Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $16 billion in 2024, projected to rise to $18.8 billion in 2026. Non-oil exports surged 48 per cent by Q3 2025, with exports to Africa rising 97 per cent.

“The macroeconomic fundamentals shifted. And the stock market, which is always a forward-looking instrument, responded with enthusiasm,” Oye, the past Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN) stressed.

Oye noted that the four pillars of ‘the bull run’ include banking recapitalisation, strategic listings, currency dynamics and oil prices. He insisted that the NGX’s performance is not really about stocks, but about something more fundamental: the power of policy consistency.

Oye stressed: “For decades, Nigeria has been characterised by policy whiplash. A government announces a reform, faces political pressure, reverses course. An administration implements a policy, the next administration reverses it.

“This creates uncertainty, which depresses investment, which depresses growth. It is a vicious cycle. The Tinubu administration broke that cycle. It made hard choices. It faced political opposition. It did not reverse course. The result is that investors, both domestic and foreign, began to believe that Nigeria was serious about reform.

“That belief is worth more than any single policy. It is worth more than any single commodity price. It is worth more than any single stock listing.

“When investors believe that a government is serious, they invest. When they invest, companies grow. When companies grow, earnings rise. When earnings rise, stock prices rise. The cycle becomes virtuous. This is not magic. This is not luck. This is the predictable result of policy consistency applied to an economy with enormous potential.”

He stated that the Nigerian Exchange has delivered one of the most extraordinary bull runs in global market history from N30 trillion in 2023 to N158.3 trillion in 2026, from 74,800 points to 245,209 points and from a frontier market to the world’s best performer.

“This is not a mirage. This is not a bubble. This is the result of policy consistency applied to an economy with enormous potential. It is the result of a government that made hard choices and did not reverse course. It is the result of investors who believed in Nigeria when it was unfashionable to do so.

“The question now is not whether the bull run was real. It was. The question is whether it is sustainable. The answer is: it depends. It depends on continued policy consistency. It depends on deepening market liquidity. It depends on maintaining exchange rate stability. It depends on the government’s ability to execute its development agenda.

“These are not easy tasks. But if the government can achieve them, the NGX will not just be the world’s best-performing market in 2026. It will be the world’s best-performing market for the next decade. And that would be worth more than any single stock price. It would be worth the transformation of an entire economy,” Oye said. (This Day)

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