The ancient city of Kano is bursting at the seams, ranking among the 10 most populous cities globally with an estimated 17.5 million people, according to the World Population Review 2026 report.

It is ranked alongside Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Chengdu in China; Delhi and Mumbai in India; Kinshasa in DR Congo and Karachi, Pakistan.

Kano’s massive population growth, which is projected to hit 20 million by 2030, presents boundless opportunities, but may also have dire consequences if not effectively managed.

How well can the city’s growing numbers – largely youths – be leveraged for productivity and development, while minimising the attendant social, environmental and economic risks of a fast-rising megacity?

With insights from analysts, Weekend Trust highlights measures the government and other key stakeholders must take to turn the huge population into an advantage and the dangers their inaction may portend.

Kano’s expanding population has been driven by natural population growth, migration, commercial activities, and its strategic role as a major trading hub in northern Nigeria.

Development experts say the city’s continued growth presents significant opportunities for economic development, investment, and infrastructure expansion.

They, however, caution that rapid urbanisation increases pressure on housing, transportation, healthcare, education, water supply, and other essential public services.

As one of West Africa’s oldest commercial cities, Kano —famous for its groundnut pyramids in the past — has long served as a centre for trade, manufacturing, agriculture, and regional commerce. Its strategic location continues to attract businesses and people from across Nigeria and neighbouring countries, contributing to its expanding urban footprint and economic significance.

According to the World Population Review 2026 report, Kano city is currently the 9th most populous city globally, with an estimated 17.5 million people. This places the metropolis ahead of major cities such as Lagos, New York and Istanbul, and makes it Africa’s second largest city after Kinshasa.

However, there has been a nationwide debate over the population figure of Kano as many stakeholders contend whether the Centre of Commerce is more populated than Lagos.

The report paints a picture of shifting demographics across continents. Shanghai remains the largest city worldwide with over 24.7 million people, followed closely by Delhi, Kinshasa, Mumbai, and Beijing.

Kinshasa, with its explosive growth rate of more than five per cent annually, is the fastest-expanding megacity on earth. But it is Kano’s inclusion in this league that has startled many observers. Once seen primarily as a regional capital, it has now joined the ranks of the world’s urban giants, underscoring Africa’s rapid urbanisation.

World Population Review notes that Kano’s growth is driven by a combination of natural increase and migration. The city’s annual growth rate of about 3.5 per cent is among the highest globally, and its population has surged past many traditional capitals of commerce and politics.

The report warns, however, that such expansion comes with enormous challenges in overstretched infrastructure, housing shortages, environmental risks, and governance pressures that could overwhelm local authorities if not managed carefully.

The data shows that Kano’s population in 1991 was 3,005,222. By 2026, the figure had climbed to 17,510,247, representing more than a five-fold increase in just 35 years.

The report notes that Kano grew by over 536,000 people in the last year alone, an annual growth rate of 3.16 per cent. If this pace continues, the population is projected to surpass 20 million by 2030, cementing its place among the world’s megacities.

Similarly, the National Population Commission (NPC) data shows that Kano has consistently ranked among Nigeria’s most densely populated states. In 1991, the official census recorded 5,810,470 residents.

By 2006, the figure had surged to 9,401,288, representing a growth rate of nearly 62 per cent in just 15 years. Subsequent estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and NPC placed the population at 13.4 million in 2016 and 15.46 million in 2022.

By early 2026, the NPC estimated 16,253,549 residents, with an annual growth rate of 3.27 per cent.

This trajectory is remarkable when compared with other Nigerian cities. Lagos, often seen as the country’s commercial capital, is estimated at 14.8 million in 2026, meaning Kano has overtaken it in numbers.

Abuja, the federal capital, remains far smaller at just over 2 million. The figures confirm that Kano is not only Nigeria’s most populous city but also one of the fastest-growing metropolises globally.

Kano’s rise to megacity status is not accidental. Analysts say it is the product of several forces that have reshaped the city’s demographic landscape. Fertility rates in northern Nigeria remain among the highest in the world, ensuring a steady natural increase in population. But beyond births, Kano has become a magnet for migration.

Persistent insecurity in the North-East and North-West has forced thousands of families to flee their homes. Communities escaping insurgency in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa, or banditry in Zamfara, Katsina, and Sokoto, often find refuge in Kano.

The city offers relative stability, economic opportunities, and cultural familiarity, making it a natural destination for displaced people. This influx has swelled Kano’s numbers dramatically in recent years.

At the same time, Kano’s enduring role as a commercial hub continues to pull people in. Its sprawling markets, from Kurmi to Sabon Gari, remain centres of trade and industry. The city’s textile heritage, agro-processing ventures, and growing service sector provide livelihoods for millions. Expansion into surrounding local governments has created a vast metropolitan area, absorbing rural communities into the city’s orbit and blurring the line between urban and rural life.

Education and healthcare facilities concentrated in Kano also attract migrants seeking services unavailable in smaller towns. Universities, hospitals, and government institutions reinforce the city’s status as a centre of opportunities.

Together, high fertility, insecurity-driven migration, economic pull, and urban sprawl explain why Kano has grown so fast and why it now stands among the world’s largest cities.

Kano’s sudden leap into the ranks of the world’s megacities is not without consequence, Weekend Trust gathered. The city’s population boom has placed enormous strain on infrastructure that was never designed to carry such weight. Roads are choked with traffic, public transport is inadequate, and housing estates are springing up faster than they can be regulated. For many residents, the dream of urban opportunity is confronted with the daily reality of congestion, rising rents and overstretched services.

The health sector is already feeling the pressure. Hospitals and clinics are overwhelmed by the high number of patients, while schools struggle to accommodate swelling enrolments. In many neighbourhoods, classrooms are packed far beyond capacity, forcing teachers to manage dozens of pupils with limited resources. Water supply and sanitation systems are under stress, raising concerns about public health in a city where informal settlements continue to expand unchecked.

Employment is another critical challenge. While Kano’s markets and industries provide livelihoods for millions, the pace of population growth far outstrips job creation. Young people, who make up the majority of the city’s residents, often find themselves unemployed or underemployed, fuelling frustration and sometimes crime.

The influx of displaced persons from insecure parts of the North-East and North-West has added to the competition for scarce opportunities, creating pockets of tension in communities already struggling to cope.

Security itself is a growing concern. As Kano absorbs migrants fleeing violence in other states, the city must grapple with the social and economic integration of these populations. Without adequate planning, the risk of urban poverty, crime, and instability rises. Analysts warn that unchecked growth could erode the very stability that makes Kano attractive to migrants in the first place.

Environmental pressures are also mounting. The expansion of the city into surrounding rural areas has led to deforestation, loss of farmland, and increased vulnerability to flooding. Waste management is inadequate, with heaps of refuse dotting many streets, while air pollution from vehicles and industries continues to worsen.

For policymakers, the implications are stark. Kano’s new status as a global megacity is both a badge of pride and a warning bell. Without urgent investment in infrastructure, housing, education, healthcare, and environmental management, the city risks being overwhelmed by its own success.

A Kano-based historian and independent researcher, Dr. Ibrahim Ado Kurawa, warned that if education and productive economic activities are not provided, the city risks increasing crime rates, social unrest, and overstressed infrastructure.

“But if the government is careful and inclusive, and if productivity is prioritised, the opportunities are immense,” he added.

According to the scholar, “The danger is that Nigeria invests more in services than in production. Manufacturing is low, agriculture is neglected, and energy is insufficient. Without electricity to power industries, Kano will struggle. In the next four years, if we do not invest in agriculture, manufacturing, and energy, the risks will outweigh the opportunities.”

Dr Kurawa urged that Kano must borrow a leaf from megacities across the world with functioning public infrastructure.

“Environmental health and sanitation are fundamental. Waste management is critical. Without it, we risk health hazards and damage to the city’s image. Public health management must improve.

“Transport infrastructure is another area. We cannot rely on tricycles and informal systems. We need innovative public transport. Major cities across the world have clean environments, efficient transport, and strong education systems. Kano must learn from them,” he said.

What the report says

According to the report, several forces drive the explosive growth of the world’s largest cities by population. Most importantly, economic opportunity is the primary magnet as cities concentrate jobs, education, healthcare, and infrastructure in ways that rural areas simply cannot match.

Further analysis of the report shows that rural-to-urban migration remains the single largest contributor to megacity growth across South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

“Young populations seeking employment and stability relocate to urban centres at rates that outpace infrastructure development. In cities like Dhaka and Lagos, informal settlements have expanded rapidly as housing construction lags behind demand.

“Natural population increase also plays a role, particularly in regions with high fertility rates. African cities are growing at some of the fastest rates on the planet. Luanda, Angola’s capital, has expanded at roughly 11% annually since 2000, according to the UN World Urbanization Prospects 2025 data. Lagos, Kinshasa, and Dar es Salaam are all climbing the global rankings as Sub-Saharan Africa’s young population and accelerating urbanisation reshape the continent’s urban geography.

“Tokyo offers one of the most studied examples of how architecture adapts to extreme density. The city’s micro-apartment typology, efficient rail network, and layered commercial-residential zones represent decades of careful urban design evolution. Architects working in Tokyo routinely design for lots as small as 20 square meters, pushing creative solutions for light, ventilation, and spatial efficiency.

“In contrast, cities like Dhaka and Lagos face a different set of challenges. Rapid informal settlement growth outpaces formal planning, and architects working in these contexts increasingly focus on incremental housing strategies, flood-resistant construction, and community-driven design processes. The gap between infrastructure supply and population demand defines the architectural agenda in most of the world’s fastest-growing megacities,” the report explained.

The report further stated that while the largest cities in the world top 10 list is dominated by Asian megacities, the fastest growth rates tell a different story, especially in Africa.

It said, “Africa is the continent to watch. According to the UN World Urbanization Prospects 2025, seven countries (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia) are expected to add more than 500 million city residents between 2025 and 2050, accounting for over half of the projected 982 million new urban dwellers globally.

“Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has grown at approximately 4% annually, making it one of Africa’s most significant emerging megacities. Lagos, Nigeria continues its trajectory toward becoming one of the world’s top five largest cities by mid-century. Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Addis Ababa in Ethiopia are projected to surpass the 10 million threshold by 2050, according to UN forecasts.

“This shift has profound implications for sustainable architecture and urban planning. Cities growing at 4 per cent or more annually essentially double their populations every 17 to 18 years. Building infrastructure, housing, transit systems, and public spaces fast enough to keep pace with that growth requires innovative approaches to construction, financing, and governance. Prefabricated housing, mass timber construction, and community-driven design are all gaining traction in rapidly urbanizing regions.”

The report further projects that by 2050, Dhaka could become the largest city in the world, with over 52 million residents.

Jakarta is expected to remain close behind. Tokyo, by contrast, is projected to decline in rank as Japan’s population continues shrinking.

The number of megacities worldwide is expected to rise from 33 to 37, with new entrants including Addis Ababa, Dar es Salaam, Hajipur (India), and Kuala Lumpur.

It said the architectural profession will play a central role in shaping these future cities. Questions of climate adaptation are already urgent. Jakarta faces severe flooding and land subsidence. Delhi struggles with extreme air pollution.

Similarly, Nigeria’s urban population is projected to reach 264 million by 2050, according to the report, while underscoring the country’s role as a major driver of global urban growth and signalling urgent pressure on infrastructure, housing, and social services.

Data tracking global urbanisation trends show that more than 70 per cent of Nigeria’s total population is expected to live in cities within the next 25 years. This shift places Nigeria among the countries facing the most rapid transition from rural to urban living worldwide.

Nigeria, alongside India and China, is projected to account for about 35 per cent of global urban population growth between 2018 and 2050. Reports cited by The Guardian indicate that Nigeria alone will add an estimated 189 million people to its urban population over the period.

While the trend reflects economic transformation and expanding labour markets, it also exposes deep weaknesses in urban planning and municipal capacity.

Beyond housing, demand for transport systems, electricity, water supply, and sanitation is expected to rise sharply. Major cities such as Lagos, Kano, and Ibadan already face infrastructure strain.

About Kano

For centuries, Kano has been one of the most important commercial centres in Northern Nigeria. Today, the city continues to connect traders, farmers, manufacturers, and consumers across the country and parts of West Africa. Its strength lies in a rich trading heritage, a strategic location, vibrant markets, and the entrepreneurial spirit of its people.

Kano’s reputation as a trading city predates modern Nigeria, according to literature. Owing to its strategic location, it became a natural melting pot for merchants travelling between West Africa and North Africa.

For centuries, trade caravans passed through Kano carrying leather, textiles, salt, grains, livestock, and other goods. In return, they brought products from distant regions. The city’s rulers encouraged commerce and craftsmanship, creating an environment in which trade and industry flourished.

By the nineteenth century, Kano had become one of Africa’s leading centres for textile production, earning it the nickname “Manchester of West Africa.” Early travellers also described its markets as among the most organised on the continent. That reputation for vibrant and well-established markets has endured over the years.

Kano’s location remains one of its greatest economic advantages. Situated in northwestern Nigeria, the city serves as a gateway between the northern and southern parts of the country. It also provides an important trade link with neighbouring countries such as Niger, Chad, and, through regional trade networks, Burkina Faso.

This strategic position has made Kano a major hub for the movement of goods within Nigeria and across West Africa. Investments in road infrastructure, railway services, and the Kano Inland Container Depot have further improved the movement of goods to seaports and other markets.

The city’s commercial strength is most visible in its markets. The historic Kurmi Market, established in the fifteenth century, remains an important trading centre. Kantin Kwari is widely recognised as one of West Africa’s largest textile markets, while Dawanau is regarded as one of the largest grain markets in sub-Saharan Africa. Sabon Gari Market is another major commercial centre, offering a wide range of consumer goods.

Every day, thousands of traders, transporters, artisans, and buyers conduct business in these markets, creating employment and driving economic activities across the region.

Agriculture and industry also remain central to Kano’s economy. Farmers produce rice, maize, millet, sorghum, tomatoes, onions, groundnuts, and other crops that are consumed locally and supplied to markets across Nigeria.

Historically, the railway played a significant role in transporting Kano’s groundnuts and cotton to international markets, contributing to the emergence of many successful indigenous entrepreneurs. The state is also home to industries producing textiles, leather products, processed foods, plastics, pharmaceuticals, and other manufactured goods. Despite persistent challenges such as inadequate power supply and rising production costs, manufacturing continues to be an important pillar of Kano’s economy.

ike many major commercial centres, Kano faces several challenges. Inadequate electricity supply, poor road infrastructure in some areas, high transportation costs, limited access to finance, and changing regional trade patterns continue to affect business activities. Nevertheless, the city has consistently demonstrated resilience and an ability to adapt to changing economic conditions.

To sustain its position, Kano will require continued investment in infrastructure, reliable electricity, improved transport systems, greater access to finance for small businesses, wider adoption of digital technologies, and skills development for young entrepreneurs. Increased investment in modern agriculture and manufacturing will also strengthen the state’s economy.

Kano’s status as Northern Nigeria’s commercial powerhouse is the result of centuries of commerce, thriving markets, agriculture, industry, and the resilience of its people.

From the era of trans-Saharan caravans to Today’s digital marketplace, Kano has continually reinvented itself as a centre of trade. With sustained investment and sound economic policies, the city is well positioned to remain a leading commercial hub and continue driving economic growth across Northern Nigeria.

‘Population explosion not a problem if…’

Dr. Abdussalam Muhammad Kani, an economist and lecturer at Sa’adatu Rimi College of Education Kano, said that Kano’s rising population should not be seen as a problem in itself, but as a challenge of productivity.

Dr Kani, who is also the Executive Director, Fiscal Discipline and Development Advocacy Centre (FIDAC), explained that “too much population can only be a problem if the government fails to make the population productive.”

Drawing comparisons with China, which holds nearly a quarter of the world’s population, Dr. Kani noted that the Asian giant has succeeded because of massive investment in human capital.

“China’s economy is growing because the government made the expected investment in making the population productive,” he said, adding that Kano must learn from such examples.

According to him, unemployment in Kano currently stands at about four million, underscoring the urgency of action. He recommended that the state government channel significant portions of its annual budget into education, health, agriculture and security. He also stressed the importance of steady power supply to revive collapsed industries and create jobs.

Dr. Kani further called for societal reorientation, urging the government to embark on massive sensitisation campaigns about the dangers of unchecked population growth without adequate means of sustenance.

He suggested introducing incentives in education, entrepreneurship, and business development to help absorb the growing numbers.

“The best investment to cater for population, reduce unemployment, and tackle poverty is continuous and significant investment in human resources,” he said.

He cited China, Iran and the United States as examples of countries that transformed their demographic weight into economic strength through deliberate human capital policies.

or Kano, he concluded, the path forward lies not in fearing its numbers but in ensuring that its millions are educated, skilled and productive.

Also commenting on the matter, a sociologist at the Kwara State University, Dr. Moshood Isa, described the development as a potential demographic dividend that could also become a burden if not properly managed.

Isa said the size of Kano’s population presented enormous economic opportunities through an expanded labour force and consumer market, but warned that inadequate employment, infrastructure and social services could turn the rating into a major challenge.

According to him, the population boom could make Kano more attractive to domestic and foreign investors while strengthening manufacturing, commerce, agriculture, transportation and other sectors of the economy.

He, however, identified unemployment, infrastructure deficits, environmental pressure, rapid urbanisation and insecurity as major areas requiring urgent attention.

“Population size can either bring about a demographic dividend or a demographic burden, depending on how effectively it is managed,” he said.

Isa expressed concern about the security implications of a large population of unemployed young people, warning that a lack of economic opportunities could increase vulnerability to crime, political violence, violent extremism and recruitment into criminal networks.

He linked the issue to the wider insecurity confronting northern Nigeria, noting that the effects of insurgency and other forms of criminality were no longer confined to the North east but were spreading to other parts of the country.

He said the challenge, therefore, was for government to convert Kano’s population strength into productive human capital through deliberate investment in jobs, education, infrastructure and other essential services.

“If government can properly manage this population, it can become what we call a demographic dividend. But if it cannot properly manage it, it will lead to a demographic burden for the state,” he said.

On the implications for Nigeria, Isa said Kano’s population could contribute significantly to national economic growth if its productive potential was properly harnessed.

He identified manufacturing, agriculture, financial services and entrepreneurship as areas through which the state could make greater contribution to Nigeria’s gross domestic product.

He also noted that Kano’s agricultural capacity could become increasingly important to national food security, particularly if investments were made in productivity, modern farming practices and climate resilience.

However, he warned that the population growth could also create pressure on the country’s finances and public infrastructure.

According to him, increased population comes with increased demand for education, healthcare, housing, transportation and other public services, which would require corresponding fiscal commitments.

He also identified internal migration as another major concern, warning that Kano’s growing population could intensify migration pressures within the country.

Our masterplan to tackle urban challenges – Land ministry

The Kano State Ministry of Land said work is ongoing on a new Kano Masterplan 2025–2045, designed to guide the city’s expansion and address pressing environmental and planning challenges.

The Director of Public Enlightenment at the ministry, Murtala Shehu Umar, explained that Kano had had previous attempts at long-term planning.

According to him, the first metropolitan 20-year development plan was introduced between 1963 and 1983 during the reign of the late Emir of Kano, Abdullahi Bayero.

He said a second effort was made under former Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje in 2017, but it did not materialise. According to the director, the current masterplan is already far advanced in design and will soon be ready.

“It covers provisions for industrial, commercial, and residential areas, while also improving the way land is allocated and developed. In it, illegal erection of properties without regulation would no longer be tolerated,” Umar added.

He expressed confidence that the new plan would help address some of Kano’s most basic environmental and population challenges, including flooding, by ensuring proper regulation and sustainable expansion.

What we’re doing about growing population – Govt

The Kano State Government said it is fully aware of the city’s population explosion and has been working across sectors to cater for the growing numbers. The Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, Mustapha Muhammad, told Weekend Trust that the administration had factored population pressures into its blueprint even before coming intooffice.

According to him, health facilities have been a major focus. “The governor rehabilitated most primary health centres across local governments and constructed about 10 general hospitals to meet the demand of people,” he said.

He added that renovations were ongoing in existing hospitals to reduce the need for rural residents to travel into the city for care.

Muhammad noted that education had also received increased attention with increased budgetary allocations to build new schools and renovate old ones.

More than 18,000 teachers have been recruited. This shows the administration is mindful of the population explosion in Kano,” he added.

On housing, the CPS explained that the governor had initiated the construction of more than 400 houses, with 50 already underway across local governments. Land allocation processes, he said, were being streamlined to give more citizens access to homes, addressing the deficit created by rapid urban growth.

Beyond immediate projects, Muhammad said the government was working on long-term strategies.

“A five-year and twenty-year rural development plan has been unveiled, covering water supply, electricity, housing, and roads,” the official said.

He added that there are plans to digitise all general hospitals and establish climate-resilient facilities with uninterrupted water, electricity, and security.

“These are all the plans ahead, which we believe if the government succeeds in maintaining its power towards 2031, the projects will be completed, Insha Allah,” Muhammad said.

Kano’s most densely populated metropolitan LGAs

Kano State has 44 Local Government Areas (LGAs), the highest number in Nigeria. But among them, data from the NPC shows that eight metropolitan councils are most populous as of 2026. They are Dala estimated at 779,900; Fagge, 350,000; Gwale, 650,000; Kano Municipal, 691,500; Kumbotso 540,000; Nassarawa, 1,110,800; Tarauni, 400,000 and Ungogo, 601,500. They form the urban core of the city and together account for about 4.8 million people.

The remaining 36 rural and semi-urban LGAs host close to 12 million residents, spread across Kano’s hinterlands and agricultural zones.

It is in these eight metropolitan LGAs where the pressure of Kano’s population boom is most visible. Crowded neighbourhoods such as Kurnar Asabe, Rijiyar Lemo Dandinshe, Dorayi, Brigade, Rimin Kebe and Dala, among others, have become symbols of the city’s growth, with houses packed tightly together and infrastructure struggling to keep pace.

Schools in some of these areas are often filled beyond capacity, health facilities overstretched, and demand for water, electricity and housing rising daily.

Urban planners warn that unless these high-density districts are prioritised in the new masterplan, the strain on services could worsen.

However, they also represent Kano’s resilience as vibrant communities where people from across Nigeria and beyond have settled, integrated, and become part of the city’s identity.

The melting of cultures in places like Brigade and Fagge shows how the city continues to absorb newcomers without losing its character, even as population pressure intensifies. (Weekend Trust)

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