By the time Sokoto State joins the rest of the country at the polls in 2027, the only outcome—a convincing victory for the candidates of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)—may already have been secured, shaped by three defining factors: Governor Ahmed Aliyu’s impressive performance in office, Senator Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko’s enduring political influence and the unwavering grassroots support across the state, and the steady collapse of the opposition parties. In recent months, an unprecedented wave of high-profile defections from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC has fundamentally altered Sokoto State’s electoral arithmetic, further consolidating the ruling party’s dominance while stripping the opposition of the capacity to mount a credible challenge in the 2027 elections.

The most significant of these political realignments is the return of Sa’idu Umar—the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in the 2023 elections and a key political ally of former Governor Aminu Tambuwal—from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the All Progressives Congress (APC). His defection, alongside those of thousands of his strong supporters, is perhaps the clearest indication yet that the opposition in Sokoto State is, to put it mildly, in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) from which it might never get out. By losing one of its most prominent political figures and its grassroots structure at a time it should be strengthening its ranks ahead of the 2027 elections, the capacity of the opposition has been adversely weakened, and its ability to present itself as a viable alternative to the ruling APC has been severely compromised.

While Umar’s defection has already triggered intense debate about the future of the opposition in Sokoto State, last week’s mass defection of thousands of ADC supporters, including the party leaders in Goronyo Local Council to the ruling APC, appears to have buried whatever hope that they had. More than an isolated event, it represents a devastating blow to the ADC’s ambitions and may well prove to be the final nail in the coffin of the party that had once hoped to hand the APC a defeat.

In politics, elections are won by well-oiled structures, grassroots networks and the ability to mobilise voters. As influential political leaders and thousands of supporters continue to cross over to the APC, the state’s electoral balance has shifted decisively in favour of the ruling party, leaving the opposition chasing shadows in the countdown to the 2027 contest.

The unfolding political realignment in Sokoto State is reminiscent of Mike Tyson’s famous 91-second knockout of Michael Spinks at the Atlantic City Convention Hall in 1988. Before many eager spectators had even settled into their seats, the much anticipated boxing contest was already over. A similar scenario appears to be unfolding in Sokoto State. While the opposition parties remain preoccupied with trying to stop the bleeding within holding its ranks, the united APC has continued to strengthen its political base by consolidating its grassroots structures and attracting key opposition figures. By the time the voters head to the polls in 2027, the ADC may well discover that the political battle had been decided long before the first ballot was cast.

Equally striking is the deafening silence of former Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal in the face of the wave of defections by his key political allies that has left him politically exposed. The mass exodus further reinforces the fact that his past electoral successes were mainly anchored on the formidable political structure of Senator Wamakko and Governor Aliyu. As one of Nigeria’s leading opposition figures, Tambuwal has helplessly watched key allies, party leaders and thousands of supporters abandon his camp because he doesn’t know what else to do to stem the tide. His inability to halt the defections also underscores the magnitude of the challenge confronting the opposition. It is therefore reasonable to conclude that the former governor has, in effect, resigned himself to defeat in the 2027 elections, as the momentum of the defections appears increasingly difficult to stop.

But the significance of these developments extends far beyond the 2027 elections or the political future of Tambuwal. His decision not to contest to return to the Senate, coupled with his decision to cast his lot with Atiku Abubakar in the hope of emerging as Chief of Staff should Atiku the perennial presidential candidate win—an outcome that appears increasingly unlikely—underscores the limited options before him. With every major defection, the opposition loses not only its experienced leaders, but also the confidence of its remaining supporters. It must be stressed that any hope of presenting itself as a credible alternative to the APC has effectively collapsed.

These defections have not occurred in isolation or by accident. They reflect a deliberate political calculation by influential stakeholders who have carefully assessed the direction of Sokoto State ahead of the 2027 election cycle. More significantly, they underscore the consolidation of the formidable APC coalition under the leadership of Wamakko and the governor. Beyond the political realignment, these defections also amount to a vote of confidence in the administration of Governor Aliyu, whose investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education and other critical sectors have strengthened the APC’s appeal and reinforced public belief in the capacity of government to deliver services.

The defections have also created what political analysts will describe as the “bandwagon effect”—the tendency of voters to gravitate towards the side they perceive as having the greatest chance of victory. In Nigerian politics, perception is often as influential as reality. Once influential politicians, opinion leaders and grassroots mobilisers begin crossing over in significant numbers, others are encouraged to follow, not necessarily out of ideology but from the belief that political relevance and future opportunities increasingly lie with the emerging dominant force. In Sokoto State, that perception is steadily strengthening the APC while simultaneously deepening uncertainty within the ranks of the opposition.

Ultimately, the political realignments also demonstrate that tangible governance achievements can equally be more persuasive. Governor Aliyu’s visible record in infrastructure, healthcare, education and other critical sectors has steadily eroded the opposition’s ability to present a compelling alternative, especially with the failure of the last administration. In that sense, the growing wave of defections serves as a powerful validation of the administration’s ongoing development agenda and reinforces public confidence in its vision for the future of Sokoto State.

Perhaps no defection better illustrates the death of the opposition than that of Alhaji Chiso Abdullahi Dattijo Tambuwal (Ubandoma). Having served as Commissioner for Finance and later as Secretary to the State Government under the Tambuwal administration, he was widely regarded as one of the former governor’s closest political associates and most trusted lieutenants. His decision to align with the APC is therefore more than a personal political choice; it is a powerful statement about where Sokoto’s future lies. When a trusted confidant and key architect of a previous administration chooses to join the ruling party, it sends a compelling message that the momentum has shifted decisively in favour of the APC. More importantly, it also illustrates the broader crisis confronting the opposition.

Beyond the headlines generated by these high-profile defections lies an equally significant but less visible consequence. Political parties do not win elections through prominent personalities alone; they rely on ward executives, polling agents, canvassers, financiers, youth coordinators, women leaders and local opinion moulders who constitute the machinery of every successful campaign. As these structures migrate to the APC, the opposition has lost not only its recognisable faces, but also the organisational capacity required to mobilise voters, protect votes and sustain an effective statewide campaign.

Rebuilding such a political infrastructure within a short period before the 2027 elections would be an enormous challenge.

The opposition’s challenge is how it must convince its remaining supporters to remain especially when victory is not attainable. In politics, perception shapes participation. Once party faithful begin to believe defeat is inevitable, fundraising weakens, volunteer enthusiasm declines, candidate recruitment becomes more difficult, and even loyal supporters will begin to reconsider their political future. Reversing that perception is part of the opposition’s greatest challenge before the 2027 elections.

The implications of these developments extend beyond Sokoto State. As one of the North-West’s politically strategic states, Sokoto State remains important in the electoral calculations of all the major parties ahead of the 2027 general election. The APC’s growing dominance in the state not only strengthens Aliyu’s re-election chances, but also reinforces the party’s broader political position in a region that will again play a decisive role in determining national outcomes. Consequently, what is unfolding in Sokoto State should be viewed not merely as a state political realignment but as part of a wider reconfiguration of the North-West’s electoral landscape which already is all APC.

Politics is ultimately a contest of organisation, perception and momentum. In Sokoto State, all three are tilting decisively in favour of the APC. Elections are rarely decided on polling day alone; they are often determined months earlier by the quality of political organisation, the confidence of party faithful, and the ability to persuade influential stakeholders that one side represents the future while the other belongs to the past. The steady migration of prominent opposition figures into the APC has created precisely that perception. Every defection weakens the opposition’s capacity while simultaneously reinforcing the public belief that the ruling party has become the natural political home for those seeking to shape Sokoto State’s future. Unless the opposition can produce an extraordinary political turnaround, reverse the tide of defections and rebuild its fractured structures, the contest for 2027 may ultimately be remembered as the funeral of the opposition parties.(The Guardian)

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