At least 16.99 million Nigerians will face acute hunger by January 2027, the latest projections by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network show.

The figures are contained in FEWS NET’s Food Assistance Outlook Brief for July 2026 obtained by Sunday PUNCH as the latest data on the deepening hunger crisis across conflict and climate-hit nations, including Nigeria.

FEWS NET, a United States Government-funded early warning body, projected that Nigeria’s population in need of urgent food assistance will fall between 16.0 million and 16.99 million by January 2027, down from a current figure of 20.0 million to 20.99 million in July 2026.

But the figure is still higher than the number recorded in January last year and above the country’s five-year average.

The report placed Nigeria fourth on the global list of countries with the highest number of hungry people, behind Sudan, Pakistan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and ahead of Yemen and Afghanistan.

Nigeria was also named among just four countries expected to each contribute more than 10 per cent of the total 145 million to 155 million people projected to need food assistance across all 30 countries monitored by FEWS NET by January 2027. The others include Sudan, Pakistan, and the DRC.

The report is the latest in a series of periodic outlook accounts FEWS NET has published for two decades to warn governments and humanitarian agencies of looming hunger emergencies.

According to the report, the crisis is being driven by “conflict that disrupts livelihoods, restricts cultivation, and constrains household income” across northern Nigeria, even as the main harvest, expected to be completed in December, offers only partial relief.

“Despite the completion of the main harvest in December, staple food prices are expected to remain high as production and supply disruptions coincide with high market reliance among conflict-affected households who are unable to cultivate,” the document stated.

It added that hardest-hit communities in the North-East, cut off by insecurity and movement restrictions linked to conflict, will remain in “Emergency.”

Emergency is the fourth of five hunger severity stages on the internationally recognised Integrated Food Security Phase Classification scale and is closely followed by famine.

Under the IPC scale, Emergency means households face large food consumption gaps reflected in high malnutrition and rising deaths, or can only avoid such gaps by selling off farmland, livestock, or other essential assets needed for future survival.

A breakdown of the data showed that Nigeria’s projected 16.0 million to 16.99 million hungry population represents between 5 and 10 per cent of the country’s total population, according to the report’s classification bands.

The figure is markedly lower than the current July 2026 tally of 20.0 million to 20.99 million, a seasonal dip FEWS NET attributes mainly to the December harvest.

However, when set against both January 2026 and the five-year historical average, the projected number is classified as “Higher,” meaning Nigeria’s hunger burden is worsening on a year-on-year and long-term basis, even as raw numbers fall from their mid-year peak.

According to the report, the “key shocks” driving Nigeria’s food crisis are conflict, economic hardship, and weather, the same factors cited for Sudan, Pakistan, and several other worst-hit nations.

Globally, the report’s country-by-country table ranked Nigeria’s current PIN of 20.0 million to 20.99 million as the second-highest in the world in July 2026, behind only Sudan’s 22.0 million to 22.99 million, and ahead of Pakistan’s 12.0 million to 12.99 million.

By January 2027, however, Pakistan is projected to overtake Nigeria, with its own hungry population rising sharply from 12 million to as high as 17.99 million, pushing Nigeria down to fourth position on the projected list.

The FEWS NET report projected that between 145 million and 155 million people, roughly 10 per cent of the population of all countries the network monitors, will need urgent food assistance by January 2027.

On a global scale, South Sudan was named the world’s worst-affected country by population share, with 50 to 55 per cent of its citizens expected to need food aid, followed by Sudan at 40 to 45 per cent, Yemen at 35 to 40 per cent, and Somalia at 30 to 35 per cent.

Sudan, Pakistan, Nigeria, and the DR Congo were flagged as carrying the single heaviest absolute burdens worldwide, while Yemen and Afghanistan were named as the next tier of major contributors.

The report also flagged five countries at risk of slipping into full-blown Famine, the most severe classification marked by starvation and extreme malnutrition-linked deaths.

Among them are Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Mali and the neighbouring Republic of Tchad, which hosts fleeing Sudanese refugees, and Mali.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network explained that its population-in-need estimate captures everyone already facing Crisis-level hunger or worse, IPC Phase 3 and above, including anyone who would fall into that category without ongoing humanitarian aid.

The agency said its confidence in figures for some countries is lower, especially for those where monitoring is done remotely rather than through on-the-ground teams.

For Nigeria, however, no such remote-monitoring caveat was applied, indicating the projection draws on the Network’s direct, in-country analysis. (Sunday PUNCH)

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