More revelations have emerged from the dispute between former President Olusegun Obasanjo and former Ogun State Governor, Aremo Olusegun Osoba, over the circumstances that preceded the 2003 general election, one of the most controversial general elections of the Fourth Republic. ExecutiveBranch

The old dispute was reopened by the republication of excerpts from Osoba’s autobiography, ‘Battlelines: Adventures in Journalism and Politics,’ under the title, ‘How Obasanjo Deceived Us in 2003.’

Both leaders are influential Egba sons in Ogun State and key figures in Nigeria’s democratic history.

In the excerpts, Osoba accused Obasanjo of persuading the leadership of Afenifere and the six governors of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) to support his re-election in 2003 on the strength of promises that were allegedly abandoned once the former President secured a second term.

However, Obasanjo responded to Osoba’s accusations with a strongly worded rebuttal entitled, “Reply to Your Inaccurate Posture: ‘How Obasanjo Deceived Us in 2003.’”

He rejected Osoba’s account, denied misleading the AD governors and insisted that his fellow Egba politician lacked full knowledge of the discussions that took place at the time.

The exchange has revived the longstanding argument over whether the AD governors were victims of a sophisticated political betrayal or whether their defeat was simply the result of poor political judgment, declining popularity and an inability to understand the changing electoral mood in the region.

But beyond the competing recollections of the two elder statesmen, the timing of the dispute is politically significant.

Many believe that the renewed hostility between the two Egba sons was connected with the failure of Obasanjo’s daughter, former Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello, to secure the All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial ticket.

Earlier in the year, Iyabo reportedly joined the APC and indicated an interest in the governorship contest. Following the emergence of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, as the party’s consensus candidate, she resigned from the APC, alleging exclusion and disrespect by its leadership.

THISDAY gathered that Obasanjo was angry that she was neither given the APC governorship ticket nor the deputy governorship ticket.

However, APC leaders in Ogun State were said to have argued that Obasanjo had no moral justification to promote his daughter’s gubernatorial ambition in the party, while he was supporting Mr. Peter Obi and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso’s joint presidential ticket in the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

She subsequently returned to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and secured the party’s Ogun Central senatorial ticket.

Her departure from the APC generated a public disagreement after Adeola accused her of demanding reimbursement for expenses incurred during her governorship campaign.

Iyabo denied making a straightforward demand for repayment and stated that her political team had only presented different proposals as part of efforts to resolve the fallout from the consensus arrangement.

However, the feud died down with Iyabo moving to, and settling for the PDP.

But with Ogun State and Nigeria in general approaching another succession election in 2027, political interests are being activated, alliances negotiated and old loyalties tested.

Osoba claimed that Obasanjo had sought the cooperation of the AD governors and the Yoruba political establishment during the crisis-ridden first term of his presidency.

The period preceding the 2003 election was politically difficult for Obasanjo.

His relationship with the National Assembly had deteriorated, his administration faced an impeachment threat, and his relationship with the then Vice President Atiku Abubakar had become increasingly strained.

According to Osoba, it was against this background that Obasanjo reached out to the six AD governors in the South-west.

The governors reportedly told the president that they could not independently negotiate on behalf of the party or the larger Yoruba political establishment.

They insisted that any understanding would have to involve Afenifere leaders, particularly the late Chief Abraham Adesanya.

Osoba revealed that at several meetings involving prominent Afenifere figures such as the late Chief Ayo Adebanjo, Senator Femi Okurounmu and Chief Cornelius Adebayo, the discussions were not limited to Obasanjo’s re-election.

According to him, Afenifere presented what it considered a fundamental governance and constitutional agenda for Nigeria.

The demands reportedly included restructuring, devolution of powers, fiscal federalism, a more transparent census, merit-based appointments and broader constitutional reforms.

According to the former governor, Obasanjo responded positively to the proposals and gave the impression that his second term would address several of the structural grievances championed by Afenifere.

He recalled that Adebanjo, who had often been publicly critical of Obasanjo, was surprised by what appeared to be the president’s new disposition towards restructuring and constitutional reform.

On the strength of these assurances, Afenifere and the AD decided not to field a presidential candidate against Obasanjo in 2003.

While Obasanjo would receive support for his presidential re-election in the South-west, it was expected that the AD governors would compete freely to retain control of their states.

But the outcome was disastrous for the AD.

Of the six governors elected on the party’s platform in 1999, only the then Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu, survived the 2003 elections as the PDP took control of Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti states.

For Osoba, the AD governors’ agreement with Obasanjo had been used to weaken the AD and facilitate a PDP takeover of the region.

From his account, there appears to have been no publicly documented accord specifying what Obasanjo, the AD governors or Afenifere were required to do.

There was also no enforceable commitment compelling Obasanjo to implement restructuring or any of the constitutional reforms reportedly discussed.

The arrangement, to the extent that one existed, was built on political trust and personal assurances.

That left considerable room for conflicting interpretations.

Neither side has produced a document capable of conclusively settling the question.

Osoba’s account also revealed the role allegedly played by influential Yoruba monarchs in the negotiations.

The former governor listed the late Ooni of Ife, Oba Okunade Sijuwade; the late Alake of Egbaland, Oba Oyebade Lipede; the late Oba of Lagos, Oba Adeyinka Oyekan; the late Ataoja of Osogbo; and the late Awujale of Ijebuland, Oba Sikiru Adetona, among those who intervened.

According to him, the Awujale was particularly concerned about the disagreement between two prominent Egba sons occupying strategic political positions.

Obasanjo was President, while Osoba was governor of their home state.

During the meeting, Obasanjo was said to have accused Osoba of keeping an unnecessary distance from the Presidency and thereby limiting the opportunities Ogun State could derive from the federal government.

Osoba maintained that their differences were ideological and claimed he deliberately avoided pursuing extra-budgetary federal assistance because of concerns about the practices associated with such interventions.

The Rigging Allegations

Osoba alleged that when Afenifere leaders received intelligence that the elections would be manipulated against the AD governors, Adesanya confronted Obasanjo with the allegations during on’ of their meetings.

The former governor also claimed that the late Anglican cleric, Bishop Emmanuel Gbonigi, informed the meeting that some individuals were being trained in Ondo State to wear fake police uniforms during the polls.

Obasanjo reportedly denied the allegations and assured the gathering that the elections would be credible.

Osoba, however, argued that the eventual outcome validated Afenifere’s fears.

He alleged that some National Assembly and governorship election results had been prepared before voting commenced.

However, the allegations of irregularities, however serious, did not automatically establish that every AD governor would have won a completely credible election.

Obasanjo’s Counter-narrative

Obasanjo rejected Osoba’s description of him as a deceiver and argued that the former governor did not possess all the facts concerning the negotiations.

“I take strong and serious objection to your calling me a deceiver because I deceived nobody,” he stated.

He further told Osoba that there were issues he did not know or understand because they were “above” his head.

The remark suggested that Obasanjo believed Osoba had overstated his importance in the political negotiations of the period.

Obasanjo disputed the claim that he desperately needed the support of the six AD governors.

He argued that the PDP controlled 21 states, enjoyed the cooperation of some governors elected on the platform of the All People’s Party and had substantial influence within the National Assembly.

He argued that the AD governors overestimated their bargaining strength and later interpreted their electoral defeats as evidence of betrayal.

The former President also maintained that the results reflected voter sentiment rather than a centrally coordinated attempt to destroy the AD.

He accused Osoba of failing to campaign effectively and alleged that the former governor had become alienated from sections of the Ogun electorate.

According to Obasanjo, Osoba even apologised during a television appearance for what was perceived as an arrogant disposition.

The Ogun 2027 Connection

The renewed dispute has attracted additional attention because Ogun State is moving towards another governorship transition.

Governor Dapo Abiodun is expected to complete his second term in 2027, and the contest over his successor is already reshaping political relationships within the state.

Obasanjo retains influence across party lines, despite his frequent insistence that he was no longer involved in partisan politics.

Osoba also remains an influential leader within the progressive bloc from which the APC emerged.

Their disagreement could therefore indirectly influence political alignments.

Egba Rivalry and the Wider Ogun Question

The description of the disagreement as a battle of the Egba is significant, but the political implications extend beyond Egbaland. Ogun State politics has historically been shaped by competition among the Egba, Ijebu, Remo and Yewa-Awori blocs.

Obasanjo and Osoba are both Egba, but they have never represented one unified Egba political tendency.

Their rivalry demonstrates that ethnic or subregional identity does not necessarily produce political solidarity. Personal ambition, party affiliation, ideological orientation and historical grievances often prove more powerful.

The principal implication of the Obasanjo-Osoba dispute may therefore be its potential to reopen divisions within Ogun Central at a time when the zone could seek to present a coordinated position in the succession contest. (THISDAY)

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