By abiodun KOMOLAFE

From all indications, the surge in voter interest is a clear signal that Osun is a bigger test and, fundamentally, it is the last mock exercise before January 16, when all eyes – including those of the global investment community – will be on Africa’s biggest democracy. Again, for all stakeholders, the guiding principle should be to follow the Boy Scout motto: Be prepared!

One of the gains from what we can describe as a test run in Ekiti State is that it has put to rest the fear of pre-written result sheets. As the Lord would have it, transmission of results in real time is now incontrovertible. We might have glitches here and there, but the improvement, given the deficit of technological infrastructure, is a massive advance in boosting voter confidence. Hopefully, it’d lead to high turnout and greater citizen engagement, which is vital to the development of our democracy.

Based on my observation of the June 20 Ekiti governorship election, I can also confidently state that there was no evidence of widespread ballot stuffing or snatching. What this means is that the era of electoral malpractice is effectively behind us. So, those still huffing and puffing in a desperate bid to revive those dark days for the Osun guber should just go and sit down. The tide has turned.

Vote buying is not surprising, for the electoral process cannot be separated from the realities of Nigeria’s prevailing political economy. A country’s political character is a function of the framework of its constitution and its economic health. An economy currently characterized by growth that fails to create jobs or foster sustainable development will inevitably produce, at some scale, the conditions for voter inducement.

The Good Book admonishes: “Do not lead us into temptation.” In a world thus fated, financial insecurity and the absence of social safety nets inexorably drive people towards that temptation. After all, we are not dealing with robots, but with hard-pressed human beings who must feed their families, pay rent, settle school fees, and care for their aged. In such grim circumstances, they have little choice but to accept the assistance offered. Only when a proper society is constructed will we see the gradual elimination of vote-buying for it remains, for many, the only succour they can find in the democratic process in the immediate term.

In this wise, rather than moralizing, Nigeria should reach a national democratic consensus on creating an economy based on eliminating infrastructural deficits and human capital deficiencies. Once achieved, this will foster sustainable development and construct the social buffers necessary to forestall – and eventually eliminate – the need for people to sell their votes. This is the only way out of the vote-buying quagmire. Meanwhile, regarding the Osun poll, INEC and the security forces can only be proactive.

It is commendable that Oyebanji has set new standards by visiting two of his competitors shortly after the official results were announced. He also reached out to others by phone, with a promise to visit them later. In doing so, BAO has elevated the political culture in a manner reminiscent of how former President Goodluck Jonathan graciously conceded defeat in 2015, patriotically forestalling what could have been a breakdown of law and order.

Oyebanji is to be equally commended for lowering the temperature and showing grace, accommodation and an endearing spirit of magnanimity instead of gloating in a childlike manner over his well-earned victory. What he has done is important because he has hopefully set a standard which should be emulated whichever way it goes in Osun and in the general elections ahead.

Indeed, a country that is such a determining force on the African continent should have gone beyond do-or-die electoral consequences decades ago. It was precisely this do-or-die interpretation of elections that led to the regrettable collapse of the First Republic and the purported ‘suspension’ of the very effective 1963 Constitution. We have continued to pay a heavy price for the unfortunate events which led to the coup d’état of January 15, 1966.

We hope that all those involved – particularly in Osun and in Nigeria going forward – will follow Oyebanji’s lead. If they do, we will be elevating both the political establishment and the practice of politics itself in Nigeria. Most enduring of all, this would create a positive atmosphere that nurtures a new generation and roots political activity in issues rather than bitterness. After all, true activism does not debase its language. Therefore, to the contestants: please take a leaf out of BAO’s book.

More broadly, the Osun electorate should be engaged by civil society to take advantage of the extension of voter registration. The extension is commendable, but we must ask ourselves why Nigeria, of all places, does not have a truly uninterrupted voter registration system – the kind that remains open closer to Election Day as is practiced in various other democratic jurisdictions. The country should be a gold standard for all areas of human endeavour in Africa, but, in many respects – most crucially, the conduct of elections – we are still struggling to catch up.

Even with the improvements in the Ekiti election, it is still difficult to comprehend that Nigeria, unlike countries like Kenya – to cite just one of numerous examples – does not yet allow diaspora voting. This is difficult to justify when we factor in that diaspora remittances account for at least N20 billion per annum, a figure that might even be an underestimate. We do not need to be econometricians before realizing that, without these remittances, the naira would likely be trading at a much weaker rate against the dollar.

In Osun, political parties should be doing more regarding voter mobilization, enlightenment and education. At the moment, they are puffing and panting, performing below par. It is civil society, not the parties, that is currently galvanizing the electorate. As expected, voter turnout will be higher next month, not so much because the elections will be contested – as opposed to the one-way, walkover in Ekiti – but because of heightened civic interest. With just a few days to go, we urge the political parties to be more activist and engage the voters more.

In The Discourses, Niccolò Machiavelli fittingly observed that politics is the law of constant reminders. Machiavelli’s thesis in Chapter 7 speaks to the contestants on the road to August 15. Consider the campaign of Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji (AMBO) of the All Progressives Congress (APC). While the campaign is currently both understated and under-reported, it should leverage a single, robust theme to provide a clear alternative to Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, who is currently conveniently immersed in petty politics and a movie-style ‘commissioning’ spree. Oyebamiji’s campaign would do well to hammer a counter-narrative across all available media until the eve of the election.

Just as Ekiti has shown that clarity of message is key, AMBO’s path to victory lies in moving away from the empty, pointless and cacophonous tirades. Instead, it must interpret and contextualize the tangible signs and wonders of improved governance for the people of Osun. It should consolidate momentum on transforming the state into a world larger than its size over the next four years.

While Ekiti had its own legal hurdles, the African Democratic Congress (ADC)/Najeem Salaam candidacy adds a layer of complexity absent from the Ekiti model. Even if immediate headlines obscure the underlying legal realities, interrogating the ‘hidden architecture’ of the Appeal Court judgment will go a long way in recalibrating the political pulse of the race.

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