When Spain and Argentina meet in Sunday’s World Cup final, the thought of lifting the famous trophy will be the only thing on the players’ minds.

However, the result at New York New Jersey Stadium could prove significant beyond crowning the world champions – it could effectively decide who wins the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

The era of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo domination may be long gone, but in recent years there has still always been a clear favourite to scoop the prize.

In 2026, it is different.

There are plenty of contenders, although history tells us it is difficult to take top spot without also winning the Champions League or a major international tournament in the same year.

Could the World Cup final decide who will earn the award – perhaps swinging it the way of Lamine Yamal or Messi – or will the winner be someone else?

In one of the tightest races in history, the decisive moment might not have happened yet.

Biggest prizes usually precede Ballon d’Or

Harry Kane, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe all put up extraordinary goalscoring numbers in 2025-26, but that is only one part of the story.

More often than not, a nominee needs to win a major continental or international trophy.

Only four of the past 19 Ballon d’Or wins have gone to a player who did not triumph in the Uefa Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in the same year.

Messi accounts for three of those (2010, 2012, 2019) and Ronaldo the other (2013).

Rightly or wrongly, that means the odds are stacked against Kane, Haaland, Mbappe, Michael Olise, Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham.

Ousmane Dembele took the 2025 prize after winning the Champions League with Paris St-Germain. A successful defence this year means Dembele and team-mate Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are in the conversation.

That takes us to the World Cup final, where two candidates go head to head.

Messi, at 39, is looking win a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or, while 19-year-old Lamine Yamal is hoping to better his second-place finish in 2025.

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That said, an impressive World Cup showing – five goals and two assists – has given his chances a timely boost.

PSG colleague Kvaratskhelia shone in the Champions League last season (10 goals and seven assists) but his nation, Georgia, did not qualify for the World Cup.

Bellingham deserves a mention for dragging England to the World Cup semi-finals, but an injury-hit campaign and a lack of silverware realistically rules him out.

Rice will be in the top-10 mix – the midfielder was key for an Arsenal team who won the Premier League and were a couple of penalty kicks away from becoming European champions. (BBC)

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