Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the battle between Kogi’s most prominent female politician, Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, and a former governor, Yahaya Bello, seeking a return to the Red Chamber.

The 2027 Kogi Central Senatorial contest is shaping up as one of the most consequential races in Nigeria’s next general election cycle. It pits an incumbent female senator against a former governor, seeking a return to the Red Chamber.

For Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan of the People’s Democratic Party, the election is about consolidating the mandate she fought for in court. For Yahaya Bello, the immediate past governor of Kogi State and the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), it is a battle for survival and political relevance.

Yet the story is more complex than the campaign narratives on both sides suggest. Natasha is also an incumbent whose record will be scrutinised, while Bello remains a formidable political actor with loyalists and access to a still-resilient APC structure.

The race is therefore not just about who represents Kogi Central in the Senate. It is a test of whether power can reclaim a seat lost to an opposition figure, and whether an incumbent can convert popularity into durable polling-unit strength.

The roots of the contest lie in the political tremors of the 2023 senatorial election and the judicial battles that followed. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) initially declared APC’s Abubakar Sadiku-Ohere winner with 52,132 votes against Natasha’s 51,763, a margin of only 369 votes. The result immediately became disputed.

At the tribunal, the figures changed. The National Assembly Election Petitions Tribunal nullified Ohere’s victory and declared Akpoti-Uduaghan winner after corrections in disputed results, particularly in parts of Ajaokuta. The Court of Appeal later affirmed her as duly elected. That judicial victory is central to her political mythology. She was not simply sworn in; she emerged through litigation, persistence and public sympathy as Kogi’s first elected female senator.

In a strict sense, Bello was not on the 2023 senatorial ballot. Politically, however, his shadow was everywhere. That is why 2027 feels like a rematch: Natasha fought from courtrooms while Bello operated from Lugard House, the Kogi State seat of power. Today, the terrain has shifted.

Bello, popularly known as the ‘White Lion,’ has moved from a two-term governor to an embattled former chief executive facing serious allegations from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). Natasha, meanwhile, carries the advantages and burdens of incumbency.

The EFCC dimension adds another layer to the race. Bello is facing corruption-related proceedings involving allegations of criminal breach of trust and money laundering, with sums running into tens of billions of naira. His allies insist the cases are politically motivated and designed to cut him down after leaving office. His critics argue that the cases expose the nature of governance under his administration.

But the popular argument that a Senate seat would automatically provide Bello with immunity from prosecution is legally weak. Under Nigeria’s constitutional framework, immunity from criminal prosecution is reserved for the president, vice president, governors and deputy governors while in office. Senators enjoy legislative privilege for words spoken or written during parliamentary proceedings, not blanket immunity from criminal charges. A seat in the Senate may give Bello political visibility and bargaining power, but it would not legally shield him from prosecution.

That distinction matters. Bello’s bid, if it materialises, may be less about formal immunity and more about political relevance. A former governor out of office and isolated from institutional power is vulnerable; a senator within the ruling party’s caucus is harder to ignore.

Natasha also enters the race with both strengths and liabilities. Since her inauguration, she has built her brand around populist representation, advocacy for the revival of the Ajaokuta Steel Company, constituency empowerment, solar street lights, and direct engagement with women, youths, and market groups. Her supporters see her as a courageous voice who gave Kogi Central visibility in the Senate and challenged entrenched male-dominated politics.

Yet incumbency changes the terms of judgment. In 2027, Natasha will run for re-election as a sitting senator, defending her record. Voters will ask whether her interventions have produced tangible benefits. In a constituency accustomed to transactional politics, the distinction between visibility and delivery could become decisive.

Her Senate suspension also complicates her re-election argument. The crisis became a national controversy. Natasha’s supporters portrayed it as institutional retaliation; her critics described It as evidence of a combative style that left Kogi Central without representation for a period. The courts later ruled in her favour on certain aspects, but the political damage remains exploitable.

For Bello’s camp, the argument will be straightforward: Natasha may be popular, but has she been effective? For Natasha’s camp, the counterargument will be equally direct: the system tried to silence her for refusing to submit.

This is where the APC’s “federal might” becomes central. In Nigerian political language, federal might refers not just to the ruling party’s logo on a ballot, but to its control of the presidency, federal appointments, agencies, security architecture, national funding channels and psychological advantage.

Bello’s route is therefore clear. He can rely on the APC national leadership, Governor Usman Ododo’s state structure, the local government machinery, federal appointees, and loyalists who still regard him as the architect of their rise. An Abuja-based APC insider put it this way: “Yahaya Bello will not run like an ordinary candidate. He will run as a former governor, as an APC asset and as somebody Abuja still understands. In Kogi Central, structure is not grammar; structure is people who can deliver polling units.”

For the APC, reclaiming Kogi Central would be a matter of prestige. For Bello, it would be personal redemption. For Ododo, it would be proof that the political inheritance he received remains intact.

But federal might is no longer a guarantee of victory. The 2023 outcome showed that a determined opposition candidate could disrupt the ruling party’s dominance. Natasha’s appeal among youth, women and professionals gives her an unconventional yet potent base.

“They have the police, the federal purse and the influence in Abuja, but we have the streets,” a PDP ward chairman in Adavi said. “In 2023, they tried to use state power and local thugs, and we defeated them at the tribunal. In 2027, Natasha is not running as an outsider. She is running as a sitting senator.”

Still, elections in Kogi Central are rarely won by enthusiasm alone. To understand Bello’s enduring relevance, one must examine ethnic nationalism and the history of power in Kogi State. Bello’s emergence in 2015 dramatically altered that equation.

What began as an accident of political circumstance became an era of Ebira consolidation. Bello entrenched Kogi Central in the state’s power structure and helped produce another Ebira son, Usman Ododo, as his successor. For many Ebira political elites and traditional actors, this remains Bello’s strongest claim to loyalty.

An APC youth leader from Okene framed it in cultural terms: “People outside Kogi do not understand Ebira politics. Yahaya Bello is our political emancipator. He gave our people power, built infrastructure and ensured that another Ebira man succeeded him. When the time comes, many people will remember that.”

This argument has resonance, but it also has limits. Bello’s tenure remains deeply polarising. Supporters point to projects such as the Reference Hospital in Okene and the pride of Ebira political ascendancy. Critics recall unpaid or partial salaries, alleged intimidation, fear-based politics and accusations of electoral manipulation. In some communities, gratitude to Bello coexists with resentment against his style of governance.

That ambivalence could shape the election across the five local government areas of Kogi Central: Adavi, Ajaokuta, Okehi, Okene and Ogori-Magongo. The Okene-Okehi axis has long been central to APC strength, sustained by patronage networks, political appointees, clan loyalties and local mobilisation structures. With Ododo in Lugard House, those networks remain active.

But Natasha has made inroads into spaces once considered inaccessible to opposition politics. Her appeal is strongest among voters who see her as a rupture from the politics of fear. Women’s groups, young voters, professionals and some civil servants, who felt alienated under Bello’s administration, form an important part of her coalition. Whether that coalition can withstand the APC’s polling-unit machinery is the central strategic question.

A market woman in Okehi captured the dilemma: “We suffered under percentage salaries, and many people were afraid to speak. Natasha gave us a voice and has promised support for our businesses. But politicians are all the same in the end. We want peace and for our businesses to grow. If the powerful people use the police and INEC again, what can ordinary people do?”

Her comment points to the underlying anxiety around the race: security, credibility and voter confidence. Civil society actors are already concerned that a contest involving a former governor, a sitting governor’s machinery, a high-profile female incumbent and national party interests could become volatile. The risk is not only about who wins, but also about how the election is conducted.

For Nigeria, the race carries broader significance. It will test whether women can challenge entrenched male power structures and survive beyond one electoral cycle. It will test whether opposition victories in hostile terrain can be consolidated. It will also test whether corruption-accused former governors can continue to use legislative contests as routes back into relevance.

On balance, Bello enters the race with structure, party backing, ethnic capital and the support of a sitting governor. But he also carries the burden of legal troubles, reputational damage and memories of a divisive governorship. Natasha enters with incumbency, visibility, sympathy and genuine grassroots affection. But she also faces questions about delivery, institutional temperament and whether her movement has enough structure to withstand a full APC assault.

The 2027 Kogi Central senatorial race is therefore an open contest, not a coronation for either side. It will test federal might against grassroots legitimacy, ethnic loyalty against reformist appeal, and political structure against popular resentment. Above all, it will ask whether Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan has done enough in the wards, markets and communities of Ebiraland to renew a mandate she fought so hard to secure.

The market woman in Okehi is still watching. She has not made up her mind. In that undecided space, the election may ultimately be won or lost. (The Nation)

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