Nigeria’s power sector recorded a decline in operational and commercial performance in the first quarter of 2026, with electricity generation falling by 9.64 per cent and distribution companies losing an estimated N140.64 billion to technical, commercial and collection inefficiencies.

The latest report by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) also revealed that average available generation capacity from the country’s grid-connected power plants dropped to 4,457.96 megawatts (MW) in the first quarter, representing a decrease of 942.42MW or 17.45 per cent from the 5,400.38MW recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

According to the report, the decline was driven by lower available capacity across 20 of the 28 grid-connected power plants operating during the review period.

The weaker generation capacity translated into lower electricity output, with average hourly generation on the national grid declining to 4,112.72 megawatt-hours per hour (MWh/h), compared to 4,452.71MWh/h in the preceding quarter.

Consequently, total electricity generated during the quarter stood at 8,883.47 gigawatt-hours (GWh), representing a decline of 948.10GWh or 9.64 per cent from the 9,831.58GWh recorded in the fourth quarter of last year.

Beyond generation, the commercial performance of the electricity distribution companies also remained under pressure. According to the report, the average energy offtake by Discos at their trading points declined to 3,309.48MWh/h during the quarter, down by 309.73MWh/h or 8.56 per cent from the previous quarter’s figure of 3,619.21MWh/h.

Overall, the power distributors achieved an energy offtake performance of 97.11 per cent against the available Partially Contracted Capacity (PCC) of 3,408.02MWh/h during the period.

However, on energy accounting, the report showed a marginal improvement. Out of the 7,148.47GWh of electricity received by the Discos, only 5,967.22GWh was billed to end-use customers, translating to an energy accounting efficiency of 83.48 per cent, slightly higher than the 82.94 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter.

However, the gains in energy accounting did not translate into stronger financial performance.

NERC reported that the total value of electricity supplied to customers during the first quarter was N955.19 billion, but only N756.93 billion was billed, resulting in a billing efficiency of 79.24 per cent. This represented a decline of 2.79 percentage points from the 82.03 per cent achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The gap between energy supplied and revenue billed resulted in cumulative billing losses of N198.25 billion during the quarter. Revenue collection performance also weakened slightly.

The report indicated that Discos collected N597.56 billion out of the N756.93 billion billed to customers, translating to a collection efficiency of 78.95 per cent. This was marginally lower than the 79.36 per cent recorded in the previous quarter.

One of the most significant concerns highlighted by the report was the worsening level of Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses across the distribution segment.

NERC said the weighted average ATC&C loss among all Discos stood at 37.44 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, substantially above the regulatory target of 16.92 per cent and worse than the 34.90 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter. The regulator estimated that the losses translated into a cumulative revenue shortfall of N140.64 billion across the distribution companies.

“The weighted average AT&C&C loss across all Discos in 2026/Q1 was 37.44 per cent, comprising technical and commercial loss (20.76 per cent) and collection loss (21.05 per cent). The AT&C&C loss of 37.44 per cent is 20.52pp higher than the 2026 MYTO target (16.92 per cent) and translates to a cumulative revenue loss of N140.643 billion across all Discos,” the report added.

The report further disclosed that none of the Discos met their approved ATC&C targets during the quarter, reflecting the persistent operational and commercial challenges confronting the sector.

Among the utilities, Kaduna Electric recorded the weakest performance relative to its target, posting an actual ATC&C loss of 69.66 per cent against a target of 18.18 per cent.

“The AT&C&C loss increased by 2.54pp (worse performance) compared to 2025/Q4 (34.90 per cent). All the Discos failed to meet their AT&C&C targets during the quarter, with Kaduna Disco recording the worst underperformance relative to the target (Actual – 69.66 per cent vs target – 18.18 per cent),” the NERC report stressed. (Arise News)

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