Security experts have expressed divergent opinions on Nigeria’s capacity to independently sustain counterterrorism operations following the recent drawdown of United States troops from parts of the country.

The development comes after the United States reduced its troop presence in Nigeria following the May operation that led to the killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, the second-in-command of ISIS in the Lake Chad Basin.

This comes as the Chief of the Air Staff (CAS), Air Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke, called for the integration of air power, intelligence and joint military operations to effectively tackle Nigeria’s evolving security threats, stressing that no single security service can address the country’s increasingly complex challenges in isolation.

Air Marshal Aneke made the call while delivering a lecture titled, “Air Power and National Security: The Nigerian Air Force in Perspective,” to participants of National Defence College Course 34 at the National Defence College (NDC), Abuja yesterday.

The Commander of US Africa Command (AFRICOM), Dagvin Anderson, announced the withdrawal on Thursday at a press briefing in Luanda, Angola, after the 2026 African Chiefs of Defence Conference, noting that Washington would nonetheless maintain its intelligence partnership with Nigeria.

While analysts acknowledge that the withdrawal may reflect confidence in Nigeria’s kinetic military capabilities, they cautioned that it does not necessarily translate into full operational self-reliance. They emphasised that intelligence remains the decisive factor in modern counterterrorism, often determining operational success or failure.

According to them, despite significant battlefield gains recorded by Nigerian forces, persistent insecurity points to enduring structural weaknesses in intelligence generation, coordination and technological integration. They therefore advocated comprehensive reforms within the intelligence architecture, including stronger surveillance systems, improved inter-agency data sharing and increased investment in human intelligence to enable more precise and proactive operations.

In a telephone interview with THISDAY, former Director of the Department of State Services (DSS), Mr. Mike Ejiofor, described the withdrawal as premature, arguing that US forces ought to have remained longer, particularly in light of what he characterised as one of the most significant terrorist incidents since 9/11. He warned that insurgent groups often exploit any reduction in military pressure to regroup and escalate attacks.

Ejiofor further cautioned that the public disclosure of the withdrawal may generate unnecessary anxiety, suggesting that such movements are usually better managed discreetly. However, he stressed that security cooperation and operational synergy between US forces and the Nigerian Armed Forces remain active.

He added that under the current leadership of the Director-General of the DSS, Oluwatosin Ajayi, there has been improved coordination, inclusiveness and inter-agency collaboration within Nigeria’s security architecture.

Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Benue State University, Makurdi, Attah Pine, said the deployment of about 200 US soldiers to support Nigeria’s counterterrorism operations in the Lake Chad region initially demonstrated Washington’s confidence in the Nigerian Armed Forces. He suggested that their withdrawal may be linked to a perceived reduction in the ISIS threat in the Sahel, including the reported killing of its second-in-command.

“Intelligence is the engine room of any military operation. Remove intelligence, and everything else becomes guesswork. For there to be positive results, intelligence must precede combat operations. In any case, intelligence and kinetic action are mutually inclusive to the success of any operational endeavour,” he said.

Retired Commissioner of Police, Dr. Emmanuel Ojukwu, said Nigeria’s initial invitation to the United States to support counterinsurgency efforts was likely guided by strategic mutual interests. He added that the withdrawal may also be consistent with the terms of the bilateral agreement between both countries.

Speaking on intelligence-led operations in Nigeria and the wider Sahel region, Ojukwu said modern intelligence gathering is increasingly driven by technology, with Nigeria steadily building capacity to collect, process and deploy actionable intelligence alongside conventional methods. He stressed that this remains a work in progress.

The Director-General of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, said the US troop withdrawal reflects the professionalism and adaptive capacity of the Nigerian military in responding to contemporary security challenges through the deployment of modern technologies. He said this was evident in targeted joint operations conducted by Nigerian and US forces within the theatre of operations.

He explained that intelligence remains a highly sensitive aspect of military operations, often subject to bureaucratic processes that can delay decision-making and response. While noting that Nigeria is not unique in this regard, he argued that intelligence assessments may either be dismissed as false alarms or validated for action depending on analysis outcomes.

Ochogwu called for the removal of unnecessary bureaucratic bottlenecks in complex security environments to enable faster operational responses. He also stressed the importance of continuous learning and adaptation among frontline security operatives, recommending that they be empowered to act on credible intelligence without always awaiting directives from headquarters. According to him, such decentralised authority would significantly reduce the activities of criminal networks.

Meanwhile, Aneke, according to a statement by the Director of Public Relations and Information, Nigerian Air Force, Air Commodore Ehimen Ejodame, in his welcome address, underscored the indispensable role of air power in addressing today’s increasingly complex security environment through integrated military operations and a whole-of-government approach.

Highlighting the changing nature of security threats, Aneke observed that Nigeria’s security environment has evolved far beyond conventional warfare, with terrorists, bandits, separatist groups, transnational organised criminal networks and other non-state actors increasingly exploiting emerging technologies, difficult terrain and civilian populations to evade detection and undermine national security.

He maintained that effectively countering such adaptive threats requires deeply integrated inter-agency structures capable of fusing intelligence from the air, land, maritime, cyber and human domains into a unified operational picture that enables timely and decisive action.

The CAS explained that air power has become a strategic enabler of national security by providing the speed, reach, precision and flexibility required to gather intelligence, conduct surveillance and reconnaissance, rapidly deploy forces, secure Nigeria’s extensive land and maritime borders, protect critical national infrastructure and deliver precise operational effects while minimising civilian casualties.

He further stressed that the complexity of contemporary security challenges demands stronger collaboration among the Armed Forces, intelligence agencies and other security institutions, declaring that, “No single Service can secure the nation alone.”

He added that, “Decisive air power delivers its greatest effect in synergy with surface forces,” noting that sustained operational success depends on intelligence sharing, joint planning and synchronised execution across all operational domains.

Marshal Aneke also identified cyber threats, the proliferation of unmanned aerial systems, information warfare, piracy, arms trafficking and other transnational crimes as emerging challenges reshaping Nigeria’s security landscape.

He warned that hostile actors are increasingly exploiting cyberspace and social media to spread disinformation, deepen social divisions and erode public confidence in state institutions, making strategic communication and cyber resilience indispensable elements of national security.

Reflecting on the evolution of the Nigerian Air Force over the past six decades, the CAS said its operational experiences in defending Nigeria’s sovereignty, supporting regional peace operations and confronting contemporary security challenges have reinforced the importance of indigenous capacity development, innovation, logistics resilience and continuous force modernisation.

He reaffirmed the Service’s commitment to strengthening its capabilities through indigenous innovation, advanced intelligence systems, emerging technologies and strategic partnerships to sustain decisive air power in support of national security. (THISDAY, but headline rejigged)

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