Fuel prices in Nigeria may not drop below N1,000 per litre any time soon unless importers decide to initiate a price war against the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, The PUNCH reports.

As crude prices crashed to about $70 per barrel following the gradual return of oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, many Nigerians expected fuel prices to fall to levels recorded before the US-Iran war began on February 28.

However, prices have remained high, with only marginal reductions by the Dangote refinery, the country’s major supplier of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel.

Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the Dangote refinery has been Nigeria’s price setter, taking over from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, which previously played that role when it was virtually the country’s sole petrol importer due to the absence of functioning refineries.

As calls intensify for lower fuel prices following the drop in global crude oil prices, many Nigerians are looking to the Dangote refinery. However, the refinery appears to be looking elsewhere.

In an exclusive interview with our correspondent, a senior official of the Dangote Group said the Federal Government should instead ask the importers it granted licences to reduce their prices.

The official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said he was surprised that importers bringing in cheaper Russian petrol had not reduced pump prices.

“The Federal Government has been giving huge quantities of import licences for the past few months. And the importers bring cheaper Russian products (cheaper because they are banned commodities). So, why are the importers not selling cheaper?” the source asked.

When told that importers might be waiting for the Dangote refinery to take the lead, he queried the assumption, saying, “How can they be waiting for us when their vessels are arriving every day?”

The source also disclosed that the refinery still holds significant volumes of crude purchased at higher prices, making an immediate crash in fuel prices difficult. He revealed that the refinery has massive crude storage capacity, while additional crude cargoes are still en route to Nigeria and others are under forward purchase agreements.

“We have huge crude oil storage capacity in our crude tank farm. Further, there would be crude oil in the ships, at different points, sailing from the country of origin to Nigeria. In addition, there would be crude oil under forward purchases, which have yet to be shipped. But, since the country trusts importers, let them go and sell at the low imported price plus profit,” he said.

The Dangote official also stated that the government was not supplying the refinery with sufficient crude, forcing it to rely on imported crude while exporting refined products. “The government is giving us small quantities of crude oil. So, we import our crude oil and export our products. If you say the masses will be at the receiving end, you should know that it’s a sad situation for the investor too,” he submitted.

Data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, a body with major fuel importers as members, showed on Wednesday that the landed cost of imported petrol was N1,023 per litre, while Dangote’s gantry price stood at N1,075.

Despite the lower landing cost of imported petroleum products, the reductions have yet to adequately reflect at filling stations.

peaking with our correspondent, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said importers remained cautious because of uncertainty over Dangote’s next pricing move, given the price wars witnessed in 2025.

“This business is like a ding-dong game. Dangote is a refiner. It is being sparked by these licences that were given to importers. And these importers are also very wary of Dangote’s antics and the strength of the price at purchase. So, it becomes very sceptical for importers to go out and continue to import unprecedentedly without watching what Dangote’s next move would be.

“Now, Dangote, in its own stance, is also talking about the old crude stock that it bought when the Strait of Hormuz was locked. And it needs to exhaust refining those crude stocks before it can reduce prices significantly. Though the refinery has been reducing prices gradually.

“I know that this price reduction is systematic. So, this is what I call a ding-dong game. Importers are wary that because of Dangote’s significant fiscal position in the oil and gas industry, it might make a drastic reduction that would affect those who have imported. And they will go home with a lot of losses; even we independent marketers are losing money with the recent reductions by Dangote,” Ukadike said.

Meanwhile, petrol loading prices at Nigerian depots recorded mixed movements on Thursday, with modest reductions dominating the Lagos market, while diesel prices also eased at some major depots, according to Petroleumprice.ng’s market report.

In Lagos, several depots reduced the price of Premium Motor Spirit by between N3 and N4 per litre. African Terminal, Bono, Emadeb, Integrated and Sahara cut their ex-depot prices to N1,117 per litre from N1,120, while Aiteo reduced its price to N1,115 from N1,118. Techno Oil also lowered its price by N4 to N1,117 per litre.

Dangote Refinery, MRS, NIPCO and Pinnacle retained their previous prices at N1,126, N1,125, N1,118 and N1,121 per litre, respectively, indicating that price adjustments remained selective across depots.

These reductions and price retentions were before Dangote announced a N50 cut in its gantry price for petrol on Thursday.

Diesel prices also softened in parts of the Lagos market. Dangote Refinery reduced its diesel loading price by N12 to N1,488 per litre from N1,500, while Duport cut its price by N5 to N1,450 per litre. Aiteo retained its diesel price at N1,450 per litre, while NIPCO’s price remained N1,460 per litre.

In Port Harcourt, the PMS market showed a firmer trend. Matrix increased its ex-depot price by N2 to N1,127 per litre, while Sigmund raised its price by N4 to N1,127 per litre. Bulk Strategic retained its price at N1,123 per litre, while Liquid Bulk was quoted at N1,121 per litre. Diesel prices remained unchanged, with Matrix maintaining N1,520 per litre and Sigmund retaining N1,518 per litre.

The depot price movements came as international crude oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude trading around $71 per barrel on Thursday amid easing supply concerns following progress in US-Iran talks, raising expectations that fuel prices would continue to decline globally.

Baffled by the slow pace of price reductions in Nigeria, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, warned on Monday that the government would not tolerate profiteering and other practices that exploit fuel consumers.

Lokpobiri said that although the era of government-fixed petrol prices was over, deregulation did not mean regulators should abdicate their responsibility to protect consumers.

Speaking in Abuja, the minister acknowledged public concerns over the failure of refiners and importers to reduce gantry prices despite crude prices falling from a high of $120 per barrel during the US-Iran war to about $70 per barrel.

On Sunday, the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission expressed concern over what it described as possible consumer exploitation in the downstream petroleum sector following the failure of fuel prices to decline significantly despite the sharp drop in global crude oil prices.

Reacting, fuel marketers declared that filling stations would stop selling petrol if the Federal Government attempted to enforce price controls.

The National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Ukadike, denied allegations of profiteering, saying many marketers were already operating at a loss following the series of price reductions by the Dangote refinery.

He warned, “Marketers will shut down if they try somehow to enforce price control. We are going to shut down our stations nationwide. You can’t be regulating a deregulated market. You can’t tell me how much to sell my product without trying to know how much I bought it.”

Nigerians are now waiting to see who will make the first move to reduce fuel prices as the government remains constrained by the realities of market deregulation. (The PUNCH)

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