The American wedding of the century is nearly here and the people have opinions!

Are Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce really getting married this year? Will the wedding be in New York, where the pop star and football hero have been spotted this summer? Maybe even at Madison Square Garden, where someone has filed a permit to close surrounding streets from July 2 to July 4, as multiple city and law enforcement sources say?

As per the habit of our times, the people are answering these questions and more on the prediction markets that have consumed ever more aspects of American life. Whether or not they actually know the answers is beside the point. Hopefully no one will be arrested for insider trading.

Primarily used for sports and pop culture, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to place bets on likely outcomes. Kalshi is CNN’s official prediction market partner. CNN editorial employees are not allowed to trade on prediction markets.

For Swift’s wedding, thriving categories beyond location and timing include: possible bridesmaids and groomsmen, likely guests and whether the betrothed will find time to attend a World Cup match.

Swift is, of course, one of the best known musicians on the planet. A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll in March found that 35% of respondents had a favorable opinion of the star, versus 32% unfavorable and 30% who had no opinion (leaving three percent who had somehow never heard of her).

A Yahoo/YouGov survey taken just after Swift and Kelce got engaged in August 2025 found that 77% of Americans said they had heard at least a little about the engagement, although just 22% said they cared. (CNN)

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