The African Democratic Congress (ADC) last Tuesday, unveiled former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi, as its vice-presidential candidate, to pair with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar for the 2027 general; signifying its readiness to battle the All-Progressives Congress (APC) for the occupation of the Aso Rock Villa in next year’s contest.

The ADC, which nominated Atiku, as its presidential candidate, on May 27, since its unveiling by key opposition politicians, last July as the “coalition party” for the 2027 polls, has repeatedly stated that its goal is to replace the All Progressive Congress (APC) as the ruling party in the country in the next year’s election.

Therefore, the party, while announcing the nomination of Amaechi, who is also a former two-time minister of Transportation, said its presidential ticket is a signal of its preparation for the 2027 contests, and preparedness to govern the country, thereafter.

The opposition party in a statement its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, had noted that “together, Atiku Abubakar and Rotimi Amaechi embody a truly national ticket—one that bridges regions, generations, and political traditions. Their combined experience in governance, economic management, public administration, party organization, and nation-building offers Nigerians a credible and compelling alternative capable of restoring confidence in government and accelerating national development.

“At a time when millions of Nigerians are demanding competent leadership, economic revival, job creation, security, and national unity, the Atiku-Amaechi ticket sends a clear message: the ADC is prepared to govern, prepared to unite the nation, and prepared to deliver results.”

The nomination of Amaechi is generally considered a big win for the ADC and the Atiku ticket, owing to the controversy that trailed the outcome of the party’s presidential primary, as well as the political hostility between both men shortly before the primary.

Amaechi, had dismissed the result of the presidential primary as “concocted” noting that “There’s no way that about eighty percent of members of the party were not allowed to vote, and you expect me to accept such results. Then what makes us different from the others?” Prior to the ADC presidential primary, the former Rivers governor had declared Atiku “unelectable” noting while the latter had always won party nominations, he was unable to win the general elections.

Therefore, pundits say getting Amaechi to agree to pair with the former Vice President be Atiku running mate is a big relief to both the presidential candidate and the party, as it signifies a unity of purpose in the opposition party in the build to the next general election. Recall that Atiku’s inability to heal the cracks from the 2023 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential primary, where he clinched the ticket, is believed to have contributed to his loss in the last general election.

Thus, for the ADC, which believes that the combination of the two battle tested politicians is a big boost for its 2027 presidency, it has gained its first win, ahead of the 2027 polls, by getting all the major gladiators in its presidential to close ranks. The question, however, is: beyond the ADC rhetorics, how far can the Atiku/ Amaechi go, especially in Southern Nigeria?

Atiku, who hails from Adamawa, in North Eastern Nigeria is expected to galvanize support for the ticket in the North, while his running mate, alongside other party leaders from the South are expected to haul in Southern votes to enable the ADC secure victory in the 2027 contest.

The former Vice President, like must of his allies, including eminent journalist, Dele Momodu, strongly believes that it is only a Northern candidate that can defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election. The belief is that because of the population of the North, any candidate who can win the region would stand a better chance of winning the presidential contest.

Atiku, while featuring in a television programme recently, had noted that no Northern politician can garner as many votes as him in a presidential contest. “Can you tell who is a current leader in the North who has more votes than I have? Talking of leaders like Tambuwal, Kwankwaso, El-Rufai and also the emerging political leaders, none of them have got that northern vote as much as I’ve got,” he had stated.

Similarly, Momodu noted that: “I have a theory that Tinubu can only be countered this time by a northerner. Any southerner telling you they want to contest against Tinubu is only wasting their time.”

ADC loyalists believe that the election will be a walkover for Atiku in the North, owing to perceived grievance of the people of the zone against the present administration, coupled with the security crisis in the country which has turned Northern Nigeria into a wasteland. Nonetheless, pundits say the ADC candidate will have the APC which controls all the Northern states, with the exemption of Bauchi State to contend with. The APC governors and leaders of the ruling party in the North will be under severe pressure to deliver President Tinubu, in their respective areas, in their own enlightened self interest.

Also, the former Vice President would have to contend with the Rabiu Kwankwaso factor in Kano State and environs. Kwankwaso, who is the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) Vice Presidential Candidate has repeatedly proved to be a formidable force in the North West with his Kwankwasiyya Movement.

If the ADC is expecting to have a smooth sail in the North, the same cannot be said of the South. From the South-East to the South-South, down to the South-West, analysts say it would not be a walk in the park for the “coalition party.”

At the moment, the ADC does not have a foothold in the South East. Three of the five Eastern states- Imo, Ebonyi and Enugu- are currently controlled by the APC, while Anambra is under the APGA, with the Labor Party in charge of Abia State. The Anambra state governor, Charles Soludo has openly declared support for the re-election of President Bola Tinubu.

However, the NDC presidential candidate, Peter Obi, enjoys massive grassroot support in the South-East. The people of the zone, who consistently cried about political marginalization, see Obi as their shortest route to the Nigerian presidency. Consequently, it is unlikely that Atiku/ Amaechi ticket will make much impact in the zone.

In the South+South, Amaechi, will be faced with an epic battle to prove his mantle, beginning right from his state of Rivers, where he has a formidable opponent in his former friend turned foe, Nyesom Wike. Wike, a former governor of Rivers State and incumbent Minister of the Federal Capital Territory ( FCT) has been at the forefront of the campaign for Tinubu’s 2027 return bid. Ironically, Amaechi, who served as Director General of the President Muhammadu Buhari Presidential Campaign in 2015 and 2019, failed to deliver the state to his former political party in the two elections. Therefore, the question is would the results be different in Rivers State now that the former governor would be on the ballot as vice presidential candidate?

In the five other states of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta and Edo, the challenge for Amaechi would be how to deliver a substantial number of votes to the ADC. While the entire South-South is controlled by the APC. The zone is home to the NDC National Leader, Serieke Dickson, who is from Bayelsa State.

Besides, pundits say the Obi effect cannot be ruled out. In 2023, Atiku, as PDP candidate, with then Delta State governor, Ifeanyi Okowa as running mate, had lost the South South to the former Anambra governor, who contested the election as candidate of the Labour Party (LP). Obi is contesting the 2027 presidential poll, as candidate of the NDC.

Similarly, in the South-West, which is home to President Tinubu and Governor Seyi Makinde of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), the ADC will be facing an onerous task. The challenge will be how to convince the people to jettison the possibility of either of their two sons occupying the Presidency post 2027 for a South-South Vice Presidency.

However, analysts say the biggest strength of the ADC presidential ticket is that Atiku is the only candidate from the North contesting the election on the platform of a major political party, coupled with the fact that there is a multiplicity of presidential candidates from the South.

On the flipside, the greatest drawback is the sentiment on zoning. Not a few believe that the South should be allowed to complete a second term in 2031, before power returns to the North. Recall that late President Buhari had done two terms of eight years, therefore proponents of zoning believe that the South should also have eight unbroken years in the presidency.

While the ADC may want to play down the zoning sentiments, there is no doubt that the issue of zoning cannot be wished away in the 2027 contest. Therefore, how the party is able to navigate the issue will matter greatly in its quest to win the 2027 polls. (The Sun)

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