Managing Partner of SBM Intelligence, Ikemesit Effiong, says a recent voter sentiment survey indicates that Nigerians are increasingly worried about the economy and security ahead of the 2027 general elections, with perceptions of the country’s direction largely negative across all regions.

Speaking in an interview with ARISE NEWS on Wednesday, Effiong said the findings of a recent SBM Intelligence study were based on a multi-state survey covering nearly 900 respondents across eight states and the Federal Capital Territory. He explained that the data was drawn from the organisation’s long-running “Jollof Index” socioeconomic tracking series.

Explaining the purpose of the research framework, Effiong said the study was designed to capture voter sentiment on key national issues, with particular emphasis on economic conditions, which remain the dominant concern ahead of the 2027 general elections.

“I want to explain to Nigerians the objective of this study, which is to reflect how citizens perceive major national challenges, especially the economy, which continues to shape public opinion as we approach the 2027 elections,” he said.

He added that a significant share of respondents believed the country was moving in the wrong direction despite ongoing policy reforms, pointing to what he described as a growing disconnect between government policy intentions and the lived realities of citizens.

“Many Nigerians, according to this study, believe the country is not headed in the right direction despite ongoing reforms. This reflects a growing disconnect between policy intentions and the day to day realities of citizens,” he noted

Effiong observed, describing public concerns, that:

“Insecurity is now the most pressing issue for many respondents, closely followed by economic hardship, both increasingly interconnected and significantly affecting household finances and welfare.”

He further observed that corruption ranked lower than many expected among the public’s top concerns, indicating that immediate economic and survival challenges are taking precedence over broader governance issues.

“When you look at the responses, you will discover that corruption was not ranked as highly as many anticipated. This suggests that people are more focused on day to day survival issues such as the cost of living, jobs and economic stability, while longer-term governance debates are taking a back seat in their priorities.”

Addressing concerns over unemployment, he noted that only a small percentage of respondents identified job creation as a top priority. He added that many Nigerians appear to have shifted their expectations away from formal employment, increasingly turning to alternative means of earning a living.

“On employment, only a small fraction of those surveyed mentioned job creation as a leading concern. This suggests that many Nigerians have adjusted their expectations and no longer see formal employment as their primary source of livelihood,” he stated.

He also stated that public opinion on government performance varies across different regions of the country.

“While perceptions may differ from one region to another, the overall assessment of the government remains largely negative. The survey findings show that approval ratings fell below the midpoint of the assessment scale, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance across key areas.”

Effiong added that rising insecurity and persistent inflation have significantly influenced public perceptions of the presidency, often outweighing government messaging and policy explanations.

“Security and the cost of living are issues that directly affect the daily lives of citizens. When people are confronted with rising prices and growing insecurity, those experiences tend to shape their assessment of the government more than official statements or policy justifications. That is why these factors continue to have a strong impact on public opinion regarding the presidency.”

He added that voter sentiment remains a key measure of political direction, particularly where low turnout may favour incumbents.

“While forecasts and betting trends may vary, voter sentiment remains one of the most reliable indicators of political direction. In electoral environments where turnout is low, incumbents often stand to benefit, making voter participation a critical factor in determining election outcomes.”

He concluded that SBM Intelligence will continue conducting periodic public opinion surveys ahead of the 2027 general elections to monitor shifts in voter sentiment and track evolving political attitudes over time. (Arise News)

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