Back in March, President Donald Trump claimed the CIA told him that new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei might be gay.

Trump’s White House and his allies have also recently taken to suggesting that a key Democratic Senate candidate, Texas’ James Talarico, is transgender and a vegan (neither of which is true).

In the views of Trump and his allies, those characterizations would seem to build up his masculinity at the expense of others’.

And in case you didn’t pick up on the contrast Trump is trying to draw, Sunday’s UFC fight on the South Lawn is making it clear.

The president is celebrating his 80th birthday with an ostentatious display of masculinity in which men will engage in hand-to-hand combat inside a cage on White House property.

But his violent birthday bash — ostensibly for America’s 250th anniversary — also masks an increasingly unhappy reality in his second term: Even as the president has sought to double down on his macho image, polls show Americans don’t see him as much as the domineering totem of strength he wants them to.

And the question becomes, what happens when a man whose brand is so wrapped up in strength loses that public perception?

Macho-ness has always been key to Trump’s appeal. This is a man who quite literally plays the song “Macho Man” at his events.

But it’s become even more central to his appeal in recent years.

He has sought to define himself by his survival of an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, after which he stood up, his ear bloodied, and raised his fist while saying, “Fight. Fight. Fight.”

Trump won the 2024 campaign in large part by expanding his appeal to young men, including by cozying up to influencers like Joe Rogan who are popular in that demographic. The young male vote swung 15 points toward Trump from 2020.

And Trump’s second term has been heavily focused on shows of strength.

He rebranded the Defense Department as the “Department of War” — not legally, though — and proceeded to threaten more than a dozen countries, strike seven of them, oust two foreign leaders and go to war with Iran.

His administration has killed more than 200 people on boats it says are involved in drug trafficking, without judicial review or much transparency. Those strikes might well constitute war crimes, which he’s also flirted with in the Iran war.

Trump finally made his long-sought military parade happen last year. He’s seeking to build a massive “triumphal arch” in Washington. He’s upped his anti-transgender rhetoric, and he’s increasingly spoken to female reporters in condescending ways.

But he’s also struggled to keep up the strongman image.

While he once criticized his opponents for “low energy,” he’s sharply curtailed his domestic travel and appears significantly older than a decade ago. (The White House has a tendency to accelerate the aging process.) Despite pillorying Joe Biden as “Sleepy Joe,” Trump has repeatedly appeared to nod off at public events. He seems to rely on an increasingly narrow universe of go-to talking points, and his public displays are often confusing.

White House physician Dr. Sean Barbarella nonetheless declared the president to be in good health after receiving a physical last month, during which Trump was analyzed by 22 specialists.

“President Trump remains in excellent health, demonstrating strong cardiac, pulmonary, neurological, and overall physical function,” Barbabella wrote in a letter. “Cognitive and physical performance are excellent. He is fully fit to carry out all duties of the Commander-in-Chief and Head of State.”

As his popularity has dropped to new lows amid the war, stubborn inflation and economic pessimism, Americans don’t see Trump as so strong anymore.

Recent Washington Post-ABC News and Reuters-Ipsos polls show at least 53% of Americans say Trump isn’t a strong leader. His numbers on that front were only worse in a single Post-ABC poll back in 2017.

In a CNN poll in January, 58% said Trump was not an “effective world leader” — up from 51% in 2023.

That last poll comes amid other signs that Americans increasingly question Trump’s mental sharpness.

And polling is ridden with evidence that Americans simply don’t trust the president’s judgment on things like Iran or his ability to run the federal government anymore.

There was a time in Trump’s national political career in which people might not have liked him or his priorities, but they generally didn’t doubt his strength as a leader. That characteristic went a long way toward explaining his 2024 victory over Kamala Harris. While Americans seemed to like Harris fine and viewed her as a more moral figure by double digits, according to Gallup polling, they viewed Trump as the stronger and more decisive leader by double digits.

His reputation as a man’s man and formidable businessman is one that’s been honed through decades of carefully crafted stage management.

But at some point, when Americans lose faith in the results, they often start to reevaluate their preconceptions of a leader’s personal characteristics.

And as Trump takes on octogenarian status and sees his presidency crumble around him, there’s risk of events like Sunday’s UFC fight looking like over-compensating.

To wit: A poll last week showed just 16% of Americans said holding mixed martial arts fights on the White House lawn was appropriate. Another 46% said it was inappropriate. (CNN)

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