By MICHAEL OWHOKO, Ph.D

Inevitable deaths are in the offing in 2027. Those familiar with Nigeria’s electoral mythology, history and patterns, know that 2027 general elections will be a harbinger of death, powered by electoral violence. It will take a miracle to escape what will playout. People will die. Nigerians will perish. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Nigerians must therefore brace up for the coming calamity, as the intensity and scale will make it a memorable year of regrettable carnage. All six geo-political areas of the country will be affected.

The event will further rub off on the country’s troubling global perception, and worsen its negative profile as the 5th most violent country in the world, and 4th in Global Terrorism Index 2026, ranking as the 6th deadliest and 7th most dangerous country for civilians in the world. Besides, the elections will threaten democratic norms, political stability and erode faith in public institutions due to brazen manipulation of electoral process.

The coming calamity will largely be fueled by electoral insecurity engendered by desperation of political parties to outwit one another, particularly the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition parties, including the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). While the APC will go all out and spare nothing to retain the incumbent government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term in office, the ADC and the NDC will deploy every resource at their disposal to dislodge and replace the current APC Government, causing public uproar.

Though other political parties will also show strength and slug it out, the election will fiercely be contested by the APC, NDC and ADC. The stakes are high, and driven by illogical greed and lust for power to control political authority and economic resources, even though the resources are poorly appropriated, and most times, thoughtlessly deployed to protect pride, fund vanity, and maintain empires, as against judicious application for improved living conditions for citizens.

The political parties are likely to deploy political thugs masked as party officials to the field to reinforce their internal strategic plans to achieve programmed goals. By their planned political conduct and indifference, the political parties will, unwittingly, diminish the value of human lives during the general elections. This is the picture of what the country will experience in next year’s general elections.

Before you ask me for proof, go and verify antecedents of political parties and how their leaders ignited the political atmosphere to set the tone for violence and rigging through their utterances and body language, influenced by irrational desires to achieve electoral victory at all costs. Except for former President Goodluck Jonathan, all presidential candidates since 1999 till date are guilty of stoking the polity through their predilection and declarations.

For example, prelude to the April 2007 Presidential election, the then President Olusegun Obasanjo had alluded that the election would be a “do-or-die affair”. As simple as the statement was, it encouraged supporters of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) to go the extra mile to push for victory at all cost without thoughts for probable consequences. Evidently, this resulted in violence and fatalities across the country.

Also, during the 2011 elections where former and late President Muhammadu Buhari, then candidate of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) lost to Goodluck Jonathan, his demeanor and post-election utterances, undeniably, provoked and encouraged election violence in parts of the country, particularly in the north-west.

According to Human Rights Watch, over 800 people were killed, and more than 65,000 persons were displaced in that particular 2011 general elections following widespread protests and riots by Buhari’s supporters in the northern states. The killings which were worsened by sectarian colouration occurred in Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara.

Without show of empathy for the high number of Nigerians killed, including innocent National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members, Buhari further threatened that if the next elections scheduled for 2015 were rigged like the 2011 elections, “the dog and the baboon would all be soaked in blood”, implying that violence and death would be inevitable in the 2015 elections. Clearly, Buhari’s comment was an indication of political desperation, intended to use threat of force and violence to effect outcome of political contest, as against allowing impartial verdict of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Luckily for Nigeria, former President Jonathan conceded defeat, preventing Buhari’s threat from coming to pass in 2015. Jonathan’s action not only doused tension, it averted widespread killings and bloodshed that would have accompanied announcement of result in his favour, particularly in the northern part of the country. Jonathan’s position was obviously dictated by his philosophy that his ambition and that of anybody, was not worth the blood of any Nigerian, which he held as an article of faith throughout the period of the 2015 general elections, preferring a credible and peaceful election.

Also, the incumbent President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is not immune from utterances that have encouraged violence. While addressing party members in London in 2023, Tinubu said political power was not served a la carte, but must be secured through intense efforts by “fighting for it, grab it, snatch it and run with it”. Whatever that means, this remark was not only unhelpful, it encouraged rigging and violence, as well as opened a new vista of political desperation and redefinition of new premise for unhealthy autochthonous political process.

A parallel can be drawn between Tinubu’s statement and an incident that occurred at a polling unit in Lekki axis of Lagos during the 2023 general elections. After queuing for hours in the sun to cast votes, just when ballot papers were to be counted at the end of voting, some tugs emerged from nowhere, scared away voters, seized the ballot box and left with it, perhaps, to thumb print fresh ballot papers. Surely, there is a correlation between their actions and the political philosophy of “fighting for it, grab it, snatch it and run with it”.

In a similar vein, the Secretary of Board of Trustees of the New Nigeria People’s Party, (NNPP), Alhaji Buba Galadima, recently advised Nigerians to defend their votes in the coming 2027 elections with “bottles and jerry cans of kerosene”. This is an obvious reference to violence and invitation to anarchy. Indeed, it is a precursor, as worse scenario marked by unhealthy electoral struggle will be thrown up in the 2027 general elections where value of human lives will be degraded.

The culture of killings In every election circle in Nigeria has become legendry. Among all African countries, and indeed, the world over where elections are conducted, Nigeria is reputed for election manipulation and violence, attracting undue global spotlight. As elections draw closer, skepticism, uncertainty, fear, and apprehension permeate the atmosphere due to expected violence.

Though it is the responsibility of government to protect and guarantee safety of lives during elections, past assurances by government to protect lives of citizens did not translate to safety. When a few successes are discounted, you find that security agencies have proved to be incapable of handling high level violence like what happened in 2011 elections where over 800 people lost their lives.

From antecedents, politicians careless about deaths and can sacrifice blood of innocent Nigerians on the altar of electoral victory. Their interests and activities are driven more by value of votes, as evident during post-election litigations where they seek legal redress for electoral malpractice rather than justice for the dead.

Sadly, the coming deaths will dwarf all previous political related killings in the country, necessitating the need to prioritise personal safety. It is imperative to identify and avoid electoral black spots that are notorious for violence. Political thugs are likely to trigger violence by creating atmosphere of fear and intimidation at polling units aimed at electoral manipulations.

Citizens are therefore advised to devise safety nets that will shield and guarantee personal safety in the event of obvious threat to life, even if it means avoiding polling booths. Recalled that Nigerians who died during previous election circles had since been forgotten, and the country moved on without them. Therefore, it is essential for citizens to protect themselves to avoid being counted among the dead in the pending catastrophe in 2027.

•Dr. Mike Owhoko, Lagos-based public policy analyst, author, and journalist, can be reached at www.mikeowhoko.com, and followed on X {formerly Twitter} @michaelowhoko.

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