Fresh cracks have emerged within Nigeria’s opposition bloc ahead of the 2027 presidential election as major political parties and pressure groups faulted the position of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar that no southern candidate can defeat President Bola Tinubu in the next general election.

The parties, including the All Progressives Grand Alliance, Labour Party, Young Progressives Party, Social Democratic Party, New Nigeria People’s Party, the Nigeria Democratic Congress, as well as both the Kwankwasiyya and Obidient Movements, disagreed with the former vice president over his stand.

In separate exclusive interviews, they insisted that the presidency should remain in the South in the interest of fairness, national cohesion and political stability.

The disagreement followed a statement issued on Sunday by Atiku’s media aide, Olusola Sanni, warning opposition parties against zoning their presidential tickets to the South.

The former vice president’s camp argued that while the ruling All Progressives Congress may retain its southern presidential configuration around Tinubu, it would be politically unwise for the opposition to adopt the same approach.

“The first and most obvious question is this: how does a Southern opposition candidate realistically unseat a sitting Southern president? Nigerian political history offers no precedent for such an outcome.

“No incumbent president has ever been defeated by an opposition challenger from the same geopolitical bloc. To insist otherwise is to enter the contest already defeated,” the statement had read.

The Atiku camp also argued that by 2027, the South would have spent more years in power than the North since the return of democracy in 1999.

“By 2027, the South would have held presidential power for approximately 18 years in the Fourth Republic, compared to about 10 years for the North. If the South retains power for another four years, that disparity widens even further.

“It therefore becomes difficult to understand the justice in an argument that seeks to deepen an already existing imbalance under the guise of equity,” Sanni stated.

But reacting in separate interviews with The PUNCH, opposition parties dismissed the argument as politically narrow, divisive and inconsistent with the country’s power-sharing understanding.

The National Publicity Secretary of APGA, Ejimofor Opara, said the South should be allowed to complete its turn in office, insisting that Tinubu remained defeatable despite Atiku’s calculations.

“It is the turn of the South, and we strongly believe that every right-thinking northerner should support it. We must bear in mind that four years are far better than eight years. Any other southerner promising a four-year single tenure is a fraudster,” he said.

According to Opara, “The so-called coalition has been returned to default mode. What is certain is that Tinubu’s votes would increase significantly, and he will not lose Lagos this time.”

He further argued that the growing disagreement within the opposition coalition had exposed cracks in the alliance long before the 2027 election cycle gathered full momentum.

“The moment people begin to put personal ambition ahead of collective interest, the coalition naturally weakens. Nigerians are watching what is happening closely. What the opposition should focus on is presenting a clear alternative and not endless debates over who comes from where,” he added.

On its part, the YPP said there was nothing sacrosanct about Tinubu’s re-election, stressing that competence and leadership capacity should outweigh regional sentiments.

The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Wale Egbeola-Martins, stated, “There is nothing cast in stone that says President Bola Tinubu cannot lose to any candidate, whether the candidate is from the South or the North. What matters ultimately is the decision of the Nigerian people, as only they can determine the winner of an election.

“Therefore, the statement by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is merely his opinion and not a statement of fact.”

The YPP spokesman said the party had consistently maintained that competence should take precedence over zoning.

“We believe that a candidate’s region of origin is immaterial, provided such a person can offer leadership and address the myriad of challenges confronting the country.

“Nigeria has had presidents from both the North and the South since the beginning of the Fourth Republic, yet the country’s challenges have continued to worsen in many respects.

“This suggests that where a president comes from is far less important than whether he possesses the competence, vision and capacity to deliver transformational leadership,” he said.

Drawing an analogy, Egbeola-Martins added, “When an individual is critically ill and at the point of death, he does not ask for a doctor from his tribe or region but seeks the most competent doctor capable of saving his life. That same principle should guide Nigerians when choosing those who will manage the affairs of the nation.

“We must move beyond tribe, religion and region and place greater emphasis on competence, character and capacity.”

The spokesman for the SDP, Rufus Aiyenigba, also insisted that the party had the capacity to defeat Tinubu in 2027, despite fielding a southern candidate.

“A southern candidate in the person of Prince Adewole Adebayo has emerged as the presidential candidate of the SDP in the 2027 general election.

“The SDP is poised to give the ruling party a run for its money, particularly considering its underwhelming performance,” he said.

Aiyenigba noted that Nigerians were becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the state of the economy and insecurity across the country.

“People are hungry. Inflation is rising. Businesses are collapsing, and insecurity remains a major concern in many parts of the country. These are the issues that will shape the next election, not merely where a candidate comes from,” he added.

Similarly, NNPP National Chairman, Yusuf Bala Usman, argued that Nigerians, not political elites, would determine who becomes president in 2027.

“Atiku is not thinking in the direction of Nigerians. The election is for Nigerians. They will decide who they want to vote for or not. Whether you are from the North or South, it doesn’t matter,” he stated.

Bala, however, acknowledged the existence of an informal power-sharing arrangement between the North and South.

“But the issue is we have a written agreement that the South will do eight years, while the North will do another eight years. So, since we have that written agreement, now it’s the South that is doing its eight years.

“So, Tinubu is doing his first four years, and the next four years will depend on who Nigerians want to give in the South,” he added.

“All I know is that we have this understanding between the North and South. So, if some parties zone their ticket to the South, it is their own political strategy or implementation. Those who feel it ought to be zoned to the North also see it as their strategy.

“So, it depends on Nigerians to decide who they want to choose. That’s why we have a multi-party system in Nigeria. I don’t see that as a problem. Each individual has their view. But Nigerians are watching and listening,” Bala stated.

The spokesman for the Kwankwasiyya Movement, Habibu Muhammed, described Atiku’s position as insulting and divisive.

“I believe Atiku is only talking for himself. I think his desperation is such that he could not even hide it or give it a different colour.

“To me, that statement is insulting. It is like saying there is no qualified person other than yourself in all the states in the South,” he said.

Muhammed accused the former vice president of promoting sentiments capable of deepening regional divisions.

“The former vice president has continued to showcase some kind of primordial thoughts. This does not actually relate to someone who has experience, once run with a southerner, worked with southerners and even married a southerner.

“If you begin to echo out what you personally believe in that loud, to me, it is insulting. It means he actually wanted to promote something else, not national unity.

“He was trying to arm people who already don’t see anything good in the South. He is just giving them ammunition to continue to amplify the hatred and defy the division that is already there,” he stated.

Muhammed further argued that power rotation between the North and South had become part of Nigeria’s political consciousness and should be respected in the interest of unity and fairness.

“What we need now is a ticket that will bring unity to this country, calm nerves and make people generally feel at home.

“Whether we like it or not, it is already part of us, and it is within our consciousness that it is only natural when a northerner serves a term of eight years. He gives way for a southerner also to do the same.

“So the best thing for now is to actually give another southerner the chance and Nigerians the opportunity to choose from the same zone. At least they have a choice to go for someone who may actually lessen their pain or who may change the way things are,” he added.

Also reacting, the National Publicity Secretary of the NDC, Abdulmumin Abdulsalam, said the mood within the opposition strongly favoured retaining the presidency in the South.

“What Atiku said is a misplaced statement in the sense that the mood of the majority of the people in the opposition favours zoning it to the South, whether it’s PDP, APC or NDC,” he said.

According to him, “It is not politically correct to zone the presidency to the North. This is because you already have an ongoing administration that ought to be eight years, but because of the abysmal performance of the Bola Tinubu administration, we are looking at bringing a southern person to supplant and replace him to complete his tenure.”

Abdulsalam argued that many Nigerians had become frustrated with worsening economic conditions and were more concerned about leadership quality than regional calculations.

“The issue before Nigerians today is not whether the next president comes from the North or South alone. The issue is whether the next leader can restore confidence in governance, improve security and revive the economy. But even at that, justice demands that the South completes its turn,” he stated.

The Labour Party also rejected Atiku’s calculations, insisting that the 2023 presidential election had already disproved the argument that a southern opposition candidate could not defeat another southerner.

LP National Publicity Secretary, Ken Asogwa, said, “With due respect to the former Vice President and the experience he has garnered in Nigerian politics over the past three decades, I am sorry to say that he got his permutation wrong.”

He added, “Even going by what transpired in 2023, the analysis is flawed. We had two strong Southern candidates, alongside pockets of support for other Southern candidates, yet a Southerner still emerged victorious.

“The combined votes of the two northern candidates in that election – Atiku (6.9m votes) and Kwankwaso (1.4m votes) – were still less than what one southern candidate – Tinubu (8.7m votes) – got in the election.”

Asogwa further argued that Atiku’s position ignored the complexity of Nigeria’s voting behaviour.

“More importantly, the permutation is built on the erroneous assumption that regional origin is the only factor that determines voting behaviour in Nigeria. It ignores the prevailing national mood and the deeper considerations that shape electoral choices.

“For instance, a voter from the Middle Belt is likely to vote based on what each candidate’s presidency represents for the security, inclusion, and stability of their region.

“And as we know, the Middle Belt is not merely a geographical region; it is an identity that cuts across the three geopolitical zones in the North.

“Therefore, with due respect, His Excellency Atiku Abubakar’s argument is pedestrian,” he said.

Despite the backlash against Atiku, the Peoples Democratic Party maintained that zoning remained essential for Nigeria’s political stability.

The PDP Interim National Working Committee spokesman, Ini Ememobong, said the principle was originally introduced by the party to promote inclusivity and reduce political tension.

“The first point is that zoning was introduced into Nigerian politics by the PDP, and credit must be given for that. When you examine it, the essence of zoning is to promote inclusivity and reduce tension in the country,” he said.

“If you conduct a survey of Nigerians’ sentiments today, the popular view is that the South should complete its current four-year cycle. It is not about cumulative years,” he added.

Ememobong explained that the perceived imbalance in the North-South power rotation arose from extraordinary political circumstances and not deliberate manipulation.

“It is also important to note that the imbalance people refer to was not intentional; it resulted from an act of nature. No one caused the transition from Yar’Adua to Jonathan—it was not a political design. That is where the perceived imbalance began.

“For us in the PDP, our position remains that zoning should function as a pendulum, oscillating smoothly between North and South in a way that promotes national harmony.

“However, this also depends on the party involved. Constitutionally, anyone is still free to contest, and no one can be discriminated against on the basis of religion, region, or background,” he stated.

The debate over zoning has intensified in recent weeks following fresh political realignments ahead of the 2027 election.

Former LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and former Kano State governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, recently joined the NDC amid ongoing coalition talks among opposition leaders.

The Obidient Movement said Obi and Kwankwaso escaped what it described as a “booby-trap” allegedly set within the ADC to frustrate their presidential ambitions.

National Coordinator of the Obidient Movement Worldwide, Yunusa Tanko, said Obi and Kwankwaso moved to the NDC after discovering plans to entangle the ADC in litigations capable of denying them presidential tickets.

“It is very important to go out and educate those who do not know why Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso moved from the ADC to the NDC.

“They put up a booby-trap so that by the time they are in there (ADC), they will close the gap using litigation and ensure that they do not have a ticket.

“But God made it possible for us to see the danger ahead of them. So, we provided an alternative, which is the NDC. The door of the NDC is open to us. Let us move en masse and build the party. Let’s get a ticket for Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso.

“They have the wherewithal. They are young, have capacity, consistent, character, accountable and have compassion,” he stated.

Tanko also dismissed reports of cracks within the opposition coalition.

“Those who want to create differences among us have failed because the target is to create a division among us while they are making an inroad. We must work as a team. This country needs to be salvaged,” he added.

Political observers say the growing disagreement over zoning and coalition strategy may shape the configuration of opposition alliances ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

While supporters of zoning argue that respecting the North-South rotation principle is necessary to preserve national balance and reduce ethnic tension, opponents insist that competence and electability should remain the overriding considerations.

The debate is also expected to test the cohesion of the emerging opposition coalition as parties continue negotiations over a possible alliance to challenge the APC in 2027. (The PUNCH)

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